Sharps didn't get the results they were looking for last night, cashing just one of their three Monday plays. Wiseguys know there will be days when the breaks don't go their way (I'm looking at you, TCU and Syracuse under). But the blueprint never changes. Flat betting. Keep grinding. Trust the process.
After analyzing Tuesday’s loaded 35-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games receiving sharp action from professional bettors.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Wake Forest @ Duke
7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 154 to 152.5)
Professional players and casual bettors are in lockstep when it comes to this ACC over/under.
The total opened at a relatively high 154. Currently 73% of bets and 89% of dollars are taking the under. This heavy lopsided action indicates $5 Average Joe money and big dollar wagers from respected bettors have both come in.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed sharps get down hard on the Under 154.5, triggering market-wide steam that dropped the total down to 152.5.
According to Bet Labs, this "high total under" and "big spread under" spot has been historically profitable spots as well.
This season, when the total is 150 or higher and falls at least a half point, the under has hit at a 55.9% clip.
When the total is 150 or higher and the home team is favored by 20 points or more, the under has won 54.7% of the time since 2005.
Virginia Tech @ Florida State
7 p.m. ET | ESPNU
Sharp angle: Virginia Tech (moved from +4.5 to +4)
Sharps and squares are on opposite sides of the spread in the most heavily bet game of the night.
Florida State (23-6) is ranked 14th overall and enjoys home court advantage in this pivotal ACC showdown. Despite playing host to surging Virginia Tech (22-6, ranked 15th overall), the public has no worries laying the short spread with the 'Noles.
FSU opened as a 4-point favorite and is currently receiving 70% of bets.
Anytime the line has risen to -4.5, sharps have hammered Va Tech +4.5, triggering market-wide reverse line movement. The line has even dipped to -3.5.
The fact that this heavy public betting hasn't pushed FSU to -5 or higher indicates how concerned books are about Va Tech liability. They refuse to hand out a better number to wiseguy Hokie bettors.
Nebraska @ Michigan State
7 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Sharp angle: Nebraska (moved from +14 to +13)
On the surface, this looks like an easy blowout win and sweatless cover for the public. But fearless wiseguys bet numbers, not teams. They've identified value on the road dog getting big points in a conference showdown.
Michigan State is 23-6 and ranked No. 9 overall, while unranked Nebraska is just a game above .500 at 15-14 and has dropped 10 of 12. So of course, nearly 80% of bettors are laying the points with Tom Izzo's crew at home.
However, despite receiving overwhelming public support, MSU has fallen from -14 to -13. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for casual bettors to cover?
Because they got hit by big Huskers money from respected players, forcing them to adjust the spread toward Nebraska.
The Cornhuskers also fit the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Underdogs on ATS Losing Streaks (54.7% ATS since 2005).
