It’s Championship Week, and over the next seven days, 19 conference tournaments will be played. Afternoon basketball and a March Madness atmosphere, what could be better?
I’ll be watching, certainly. But the first round of conference tournament play can be boring. These matchups often feature the worst teams in the league. While this doesn’t make for great a viewing experience, it does create an opportunity for gamblers.
My theory: first round favorites will be overvalued because of the familiarity between opponents (likely the second or third time playing that season) and the increased motivation of the underdog to extend their season.
Using our Bet Labs database, we find that underdogs have performed well in the first round of conference tournaments. The bigger the underdog, the more profitable it has been to fade the chalk:
So what's the optimal strategy?
Target underdogs of +7 or more. When two bad teams play, should one really be a significant favorite over the other? History says no. Since 2005, underdogs of +7 or more in the first round of conference tournament games have gone 164-138-7 (54.3%) against the spread (ATS).
It is rare that underdogs in this situation get much love from the betting public. In our sample, only 34 underdogs (11%) received a majority of spread tickets. This means the favorites are the popular play, which isn’t surprising.
All the love for the favorite can move the line. While this may seem counterintuitive, it has actually been more profitable to wager on the underdog when the line stays the same or gets better for them – meaning they went from +8 to +9.
When these teams become bigger underdogs, they have gone 109-76-4 (58.9%) ATS since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $2,765 following this strategy. This betting system has been a consistent winner, with only two losing ATS records in the past 12 postseasons.
If you buy into the theory that first round favorites are overvalued, there is an underdog you will want to bet on Monday in the MAC Tournament.
- Western Michigan +10 at Central Michigan (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
