Six teams have already punched their tickets to the NCAA tournament. Over the next week, 26 more automatic bids will be given out to the winners of conference tournaments.
The power conference tournaments tip over the next two days. The ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC titles are up for grabs. Which teams will cut down the nets?
To find out, we ran 10,000 simulations of the power conference tournaments using our bracket simulator. To identify bets with positive expected value we converted each team’s odds to win the tournament from Westgate into an implied probability and compared it to our model.
Based on our projections, these are the teams offering bettors value to win their respective conference tournament:
ACC Tournament – Charlotte, March 12-16
Zion Williamson is expected to play in the ACC Tournament. Before Zion’s injury, Duke was 23-2 and averaging 86.4 points per game. In the six ACC games that the star freshman has missed, the Blue Devils have gone 3-3 and are averaging 74.5 ppg.
Our model assumes Zion is healthy and that Duke will play like the team we saw on the court before a blown out sneaker changed Coach K’s squad from championship favorite to a .500 team. If you believe Zion is fully healthy, like our model, then Duke at 7-4 odds is the best bet to win the tournament.
Note: Miami, Notre Dame, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Pittsburgh are included in the field (100-1). The teams combine to win the tournament 0.0% of the time.
Big East Tournament – New York, March 13-16
There is no clear value bet in this conference tournament. Villanova is the favorite but has lost four of its final eight games. Marquette, the second-best team in the Big East, has lost four in a row.
There are eight teams with 15-1 or better odds of earning the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. The bracket is wide open, which should make for a fun watch, but doesn’t create a solid betting opportunity for gamblers.
If you are interested in placing a wager, my colleague Eli Hershkovich makes a case for a longshot to surprise.
Big 12 Tournament – Kansas City, March 13-16
Defense wins championships and it has been Texas Tech’s calling card all season. The Red Raiders are second in the nation in scoring defense (58.6 ppg), first in defensive efficiency and first in effective field goal percentage.
Tech has a 39.0% chance to win the tournament in Kansas City, which is twice as likely as any other team. Chris Beard’s crew should win and bettors are getting the Red Raiders at 3-2 odds.
Big Ten Tournament – Chicago, March 13-17
Michigan State is one of five teams from the Big Ten that are ranked in the AP Poll Top 25. The Spartans went 5-1 in conference play against these ranked opponents. Balance has been the key to the team’s success. Tom Izzo’s bunch is one of three squads that ranks in the top 10 of KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
Not only has Michigan State been the best team in the conference all season, but it has done so while dealing with numerous injuries. Per the school, players in the regular starting lineup have missed 24 games to injury.
But reinforcements are on the way. Nick Ward is expected to play in the Big Ten Tournament one month after having surgery on his hand. Ward is Michigan State’s second-leading scorer (15.1 ppg) and third-leading rebounder (6.7 rpg).
There isn’t much of an edge wagering on Michigan State at 7-4 odds, yet if you are looking to bet on the Big Ten Tournament it would be smart to go chalk.
Pac-12 Tournament – Las Vegas, March 13-16
It is possible the Pac-12 sends only one team to the NCAA tournament. In Joe Lunardi’s most recent Bracketology, he has Washington and Arizona State in but as an 8-seed and 10-seed, respectively.
The only way to guarantee a spot in the Big Dance is to cut down the nets in Vegas, which should make for an entertaining conference tournament. The model makes Washington a favorite to win but unfortunately it does not see value placing a bet on the Huskies or any other team. The Pac-12 tourney is a pass for me.
SEC Tournament – Nashville, March 13-17
The oddsmakers list Kentucky and Tennessee as co-favorites to win the SEC Tournament. Our model agrees as the Cats (38.7%) and Vols (27.3%) are the two most likely teams to win it all.
Coach Cal’s team is looking to win its fifth consecutive SEC tournament title, and though it has a difficult path to the championship game (likely plays Tennessee in semifinal) and short odds, there is value placing a bet on the Wildcats.
Note: Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Missouri and Georgia are included in the field (80-1). The teams combine to win the tournament 0.0% of the time.
