Before the season tipped off in November, we dove into our futures for the national title and particular conferences around the country.
Now that we're a month and a half into the new campaign, our staff is checking back in for an updated look at college basketball futures, including five national championship and conference picks to make right now.
Creighton Bluejays
To Win National Title (+2500)
By D.J. James
Because of UConn and Marquette, the Creighton Bluejays are flying under the radar in the Big East. However, since 2004, every men’s college hoops champion has been in the top 12 of the Week 6 AP Poll. Creighton is amongst the bunch.
There's good reason, too. The Bluejays only have one loss to Colorado State.
Creighton ranks 12th in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and eighth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. It's hitting over 40% from outside the arc, while shooting 3s 50.9% of the time. The Bluejays are also shooting 62.7% on 2-pointers.
Adding on, they rank first in allowed 3-point attempt rate. Opponents are only shooting 27.7% on them from deep and 44.1% from inside the perimeter. All of this leads to the best Rim-and-3 Rate defensively in the country.
This team also ranks 42nd in offensive turnover rate. They're shooting 75% from the free-throw line, while holding opponents to the lowest free-throw attempt rate in the country. Lastly, they rank fifth in defensive rebounding.
This is a well-rounded team with scoring threats up and down the roster. The Bluejays have a chance to go deep in March and can match up with nearly any team in the country.
Pick: Creighton to Win National Title (+2500)
UConn Huskies
To Win National Title (+1300)
By John Feltman
The Big East will obviously be a tough league to navigate this season, and I think UConn is on a different level compared to the rest of the conference.
This may not seem like good value, but my belief is this number is only going to continue to tank once the Huskies run through league play.
The champs from last season did lose three key significant starters, but their replacements have filled their void nicely during a difficult schedule thus far. Alex Karaban, Cam Spencer and Donovan Clingan have done a terrific job as a result.
Let’s be real, the Huskies easily could’ve left Allen Fieldhouse a couple of weeks ago with a victory over Kansas.
Usually, national title contenders need to be top-50 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. Well, the Huskies are fourth offensively and 17th defensively.
They’re shooting 72% at the free-throw line, but I think this number will increase as the year goes on.
Many will argue Marquette is the best team in the conference, but according to ShotQuality, the Golden Eagles have been quite fortunate thus far this season. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Huskies sweep the season series against the Golden Eagles.
It’s very tough to repeat as champions, but there’s less than a handful of the teams in the entire country that are capable of matching up with this roster. 13-1 seems like real value to me.
Pick: UConn to Win National Title (+1300)
Virginia Cavaliers
To Win ACC (+650)
By Greg Waddell
As the top teams in the ACC continue to look a bit shaky, Tony Bennett’s Cavaliers hold strong at 8-1. And there's reason to believe this could be the best futures value on the board.
For starters, Virginia has the same projected conference record as Duke and North Carolina this season (14-6), according to KenPom, but it's nearly double the value when it comes to odds.
KenPom also has Virginia favored in all but three of its remaining games this season.
Virginia only plays Duke and North Carolina once this season each (Duke on the road, North Carolina at home), but if it can split those games, it has a huge advantage over the other contenders.
The top of this conference just isn't as strong as anyone expected, and the best coach is always a good bet. The value will be on the move shortly.
Pick: Virginia to Win ACC (+650)
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Dayton Flyers
To Win Atlantic 10 (+350)
By Kevin Rogers
Dayton is the favorite in the Atlantic 10 this season, and this may be the year it breaks through.
The Flyers were 18-0 in the A-10 before the pandemic destroyed any hopes of a Final Four run in 2020. Since then, Dayton hasn't won the A-10 regular season title outright.
VCU has taken a step backwards after a 15-3 mark last season and a regular season title. But who was right behind them? Dayton, which won 12 league games alongside Saint Louis and Fordham, two teams that have struggled out of the gate this season.
The Flyers have lost twice in non-conference play, with one of those defeats coming to an excellent Houston squad.
Dayton has a tough stretch in early February when it faces St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph’s, VCU and Duquesne, but the Flyers have lost more than six league games only once since 2019.
A 12-6 mark may be good enough to win the conference this season, but Dayton looks like the most complete team, with DaRon Holmes II and Nate Santos combining for nearly 30 points per game.
Pick: Dayton to Win Atlantic 10 (+350)
Drexel Dragons
To Win CAA (+750)
This one might qualify as a little bit of a bet for sickos, but scanning the board for conference futures, it was the one that caught my eye. At most books, there are three teams in the CAA priced lower than Drexel, which seems odd given the season at hand so far.
The Dragons have the best non-conference win in the league (a neutral-site upset of Villanova at the Big 5 Classic) and clearly the best defense in the CAA. KenPom pegs Drexel as the second-best team in the league, just a hair behind Hofstra.
Drexel’s defense is the real deal, ranking in the top 50 in most Adjusted Efficiency metrics. Amari Williams is the two-time reigning CAA Defensive Player of the Year, making a real impact in the paint again this season.
Drexel’s offense certainly needs to blossom for the Dragons to take the conference crown, but a 26% outside shooting mark makes me hopeful for some positive regression and a spark in conference play.
Pick: Drexel to Win CAA (+750)
