If you are someone who likes to leave their Christmas shopping to the very last minute, I have some good news: Futures tickets make great stocking stuffers during the holiday season.
For this particular pick, I will head to the Atlantic 10 and Western New York.
So, here is my college basketball futures pick before New Year's Eve.
College Basketball Futures
St. Bonaventure to Win Atlantic 10 Regular Season (+1400)
Mark Schmidt has been a mainstay in Western New York, as the 61-year-old coach has been leading the Bonnies for the past 18 seasons.
But if longevity isn’t your thing, let’s examine some recent history.
Under Schmidt’s watch, the Bonnies have won the A-10 regular season title twice in the past eight years. In the past decade, he has had just one losing season in conference play, an 8-10 campaign in 2022-23. (And the Bonnies were positively snakebit that season, dropping three A-10 games by two points or less.)
Despite his sustained success, Schmidt and St. Bonaventure were doubted in the preseason. The media poll slotted the Bonnies 10th out of 15 teams, their lowest preseason projection in the past decade.
The Bonnies were replacing their entire starting lineup, having lost six players to the transfer portal and another three who had exhausted their eligibility. So, in a lot of ways, St. Bonaventure was a mystery box this season. This explains why it was 40:1 to win the A-10 just two months ago.
The questions about this team have been answered — and then some — during St. Bonaventure’s 12-1 run to open the season. If you blend ratings from top websites like Bart Torvik, Evan Miya and KenPom, St. Bonaventure is a top-75 team in 2024-25.
The Bonnies slow games down (281st adjust tempo), play elite defense (second in A-10) and feature three guards that average double figures.
Chance Moore, a former Arkansas Razorback, is one of the best rebounding guards in the country and used a double-double to help the Bonnies secure their best win of the season, a neutral-site victory over Providence.
In the mega-conference era, scheduling plays a crucial role for any team with title aspirations. The A-10 has three other contenders in addition to St. Bonaventure.
Dayton sits at 10-3, with two wildly impressive non-conference wins over UConn and Marquette. The Flyers' only losses have come to nationally-ranked opponents. St. Bonaventure only draws Dayton once this season, and that pivotal game comes at home for the Bonnies.
Next up is VCU, another contender with a 10-3 record and a quartet of guards that all average double figures. The Rams drilled a pair of ACC teams (Boston College, Miami) and feature one of the sport’s most disruptive defenses.
Opponents turn it over on nearly 20% of their possessions when facing the Rams. But like Dayton, VCU must come to the Reilly Center in Olean, NY.
And finally, there is Saint Joe’s, an up-and-down team that has quality wins over Villanova, Texas Tech and Virginia Tech but a head-scratching loss to Central Connecticut State. When guard Erik Reynolds II is on, Saint Joe's is nearly unbeatable.
The Bonnies must travel to Hawk Hill to take on Saint Joe's, but just like their tilts with Dayton and VCU, it’s a one-off.
In a conference that is relatively top-heavy, avoiding home-and-aways with your top competition is ideal, particularly when you are hosting two of the three games.
Just four years ago, St. Bonaventure ranked fifth nationally in roster continuity. This season, the Bonnies are 334th in that metric.
This is a testament to Schmidt’s ability to adapt to the new landscape in college hoops, bringing in four transfers via the portal.
It’s also why skepticism remains around the program, but that’s something bettors can take advantage of at this price point.
I would play the Bonnies down to +1000, a number that could be on the move should they beat VCU at home on New Year’s Eve.
