It's the most wonderful time of the year.
Thursday is the official start of March Madness in my book, as we tip off daytime conference tournament action in Arch Madness.
If you're looking for a long shot or two, I highlighted the six I played for the conference tournaments that will tip off this weekend.
America East: UMass Lowell 22-1
The preseason favorite River Hawks had a disastrous campaign — in large part due to horrid late-game luck, as they finished 1-9 in games decided by five points or less.
That includes a whopping four league losses by a single point, in addition to another by two in overtime.
This should present a chance for them to hit the reset button, starting with a game on the road against Maine, where they just lost by (you guessed it) one point.
That quick turnaround against the Black Bears should also help them deal with Maine's pressure, since turnovers are a major concern for Lowell.
If the River Hawks can win that coin-flip game, they unfortunately would likely head to tournament-favorite Bryant, since the America East re-seeds. That would be a tall task considering the River Hawks got blown out in Smithfield earlier this year.
However, they did just lose by (you guessed it) one at the buzzer on a horrible foul call, so they know they can play with the Bulldogs in what should be an up-and-down game that both squads prefer.
If they can successfully avenge their one-point losses against Maine and Bryant, they'd most likely face Vermont in the final.
While the Catamounts have played much better basketball of late, this isn't one of John Becker's best teams, and they may have to make do without their best player in Shamir Bogues.
While Lowell doesn't have much depth — especially without the injured Quincy Clark — the America East format allows for adequate rest with games on Saturday, Tuesday and Saturday.
Plus, most of the underlying data suggests the River Hawks are much more efficient without Clark in the lineup.
It's a long shot for a reason, but I think there's some value in this number on the still very talented and super experienced River Hawks. They're overdue to have a few close games flip their way late.
Coastal: Drexel 20-1
This is probably my favorite future of the bunch.
Unfortunately, if you do bet this with me, you'll be forced to watch the Drexel offense, which isn't a sight for sore eyes.
However, I just couldn't pass up this price in a fairly wide open Coastal Athletic Association that's been injury-ridden all season.
While the Dragons come into this tournament fully healthy, many other teams don't, including their first opponent — Elon — which was down a pair of starters late in the season.
If they can get by the Phoenix, they would face top-seed Towson, which I believe is very vulnerable. The Tigers won a ton of close games during league play to secure the No. 1 seed, but they're very similar to Drake (which I'll touch on next) in that their style leaves them very vulnerable to upsets.
Towson is a very physical team that lives on the glass, while also not turning it over, which makes them shot quality beasts. However, its offense still has severe limitations (311th Effective FG%) in games that usually have very limited possessions (347th in Adjusted Tempo).
Look no further than Towson's most recent meeting against Drexel in Maryland that the Tigers pulled out 55-54 in a game in which neither team scored over the final three-plus minutes.
That's the exact type of game I'd expect if these teams met a third time (Towson won the first meeting in overtime).
The Dragons, who rank even lower in Adjusted Tempo (357th), could certainly win a complete grinder against Pat Skerry's bunch to get to the semifinals, where they'd likely take on either William & Mary or Campbell, who are also both dealing with significant injuries.
I'd love their chances against either at that point.
If they can just get to the final against whoever comes out of the bottom half, I'll be a happy camper. The favorites to do so are Charleston (which Drexel beat in their only meeting) and UNC Wilmington (which Drexel lost to in double overtime in their only meeting).
And while winning four games in four days won't be a cakewalk, their slow methodical pace does make that unenviable task a bit more manageable.
Winners of four straight, Drexel comes in playing its best basketball of the season and easily could've finished with a higher seed than No. 7 if it didn't go 0-3 in overtime during league play.
In a league that was defined by the crazy amount of injuries across the board, I wanted to take a longer shot, and Drexel fit the bill.
The CAA has seen some wild results over the past few seasons (seven seed got to the final last year, five seed won it three years ago), and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some more chaos.
Drexel came out on top back in 2021 when it punched its ticket to the Big Dance as a six seed by beating eight-seed Delaware in the final.
Give me mayhem in D.C.
Missouri Valley: Illinois State 18-1
I believe the two top seeds Drake and Bradley (who went a combined 7-0 in overtime during league play) are much more vulnerable than the market implies.
Drake could really lose to anybody (it went to overtime twice with last-place Missouri State) given its style, which usually leads to very low-possession games.
While Bradley's offense is an inferno when the Braves are hitting their 3s (which they did at the nation's highest rate during the regular season), I still don't fully trust their defense, which possesses the ugly combination of fouling too frequently without forcing turnovers.
While both are the rightful favorites, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a surprise winner come out of Arch Madness.
So, why not Illinois State? The Redbirds have an elite mid-major offense, led by Chase Walker and a bevy of shooters.
The Redbirds also play a high-variance style, which is what I'm looking for with a long shot. They play slow (281st in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom) and their games involve a ton of 3-point variance, as they rank 25th in 3-point attempt rate on offense (27th in percentage) and 327th on defense.
While their defense is beyond horrid, could their offense carry them for a few games in St. Louis? Certainly, especially if the 3-point variance works in their favor.
Now, the path isn't easy, as they'd have to win four games in four days, but they do at least have decent depth.
You'll probably hear that only one team that played on Thursday (Valpo in 2020) has made it to the Valley final, which is true. However, the current format is now much different than it used to be, so there's definitely more talented teams playing on the first day.
Their journey in the tourney starts with a potentially tricky game against a relentless-rebounding Missouri State team that's played much better down the stretch.
However, if they can handle business on Thursday, they would get Belmont in a coin-flip game with a ton of 3-point variance. (Illinois State won 81-78 at home and lost 99-97 in overtime on the road to paint a picture of what you can expect in that one).
If they can win that coin flip, they'd likely get top-seeded Drake, which I already mentioned could lose to anybody — even its first opponent, which would certainly open up the draw.
The Bulldogs did sweep the regular season series by margins of four and seven, but Illinois State shot 14-of-42 from distance (33.33%), while Drake made 20-of-41 (48.8%).
If the Red Birds can get some 3-point variance to break their way this weekend, look out.
If you're curious, the other team I had circled as a potential target was Northern Iowa, but I just couldn't get there at the current price.
Plus, while the Panthers do have a very talented offense and play slow, they just haven't been the same team away from home this year, where they rank 187th compared to 71st in Cedar Falls. There's a reason why they rank 362nd in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric.
SoCon: Furman +850
I don't think Furman should be priced as low as it is compared to its first-round opponent, Samford, which the Paladins swept in the regular season.
While the Bulldogs will likely be a small favorite, it's a decent matchup for Furman, which limits 3-point attempts on defense and doesn't turn the ball over. Those are two critical factors against Samford, whose defense can be had when not forcing turnovers.
Furman boasts an elite rim-and-3 offense led by PJay Smith Jr., who's fully capable of carrying the well-coached Dins under Bob Richey to a title.
It's worth noting that they would likely have to play top-seeded Chattanooga in the semifinals if they get past Samford.
While the Mocs did sweep the regular season series, their defense — which ranked just seventh in adjusted efficiency during league play — can be had. If Furman is making its 3s — which it attempted at a top-five rate nationally — it could certainly beat the Mocs in a shootout.
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if any of the top-six seeds won this pretty wide-open tournament, so I didn't hesitate to take the one with the highest odds, to go along with some 3-point variance upside.
For what it's worth, since Feb. 1, Furman has been the best team in the league, per Bart Torvik.
- Furman (113th)
- Chattanooga (125th)
- Wofford (134th)
- ETSU (171st)
- UNCG (173rd)
- Samford (183rd)
I did have Wofford circled as a potential future, but I needed a better price.
Plus, the bottom half of the draw should be an all-out brawl with ETSU, Wofford and UNCG.
Summit League: Denver 80-1
This is a pure lottery ticket, as the Pioneers likely go down in their first game against St. Thomas (-10).
However, I do show value in this number for the much-improved Pios, who seemingly have finally figured out life after losing star player Tommy Bruner. Bruner led Denver to a surprise run to the Summit final last season.
Per Bart Torvik, since Feb. 1, Denver has been the third-best team in the league:
- St. Thomas (126th)
- Omaha (128th)
- Denver (164th)
Over that span, the Pioneers had the league's best defense by a wide margin (68th nationally), despite opponents shooting over 37% from distance.
The offense remains extremely ugly with major turnover issues, which is why they're priced where they are.
In a league full of great offenses, Denver is known for its defense, especially now that both 7-footers are healthy. Abdulai Fanta Kabba didn't make his debut until January, and Isaiah Carr returned five games ago after missing 20 contests.
Keep in mind that Denver's best offensive player — DeAndre Craig — also missed three league games with an injury in January (all losses).
Now that the Pios are at full strength, they just need to run into some 3-point luck on offense and lean on their stop unit. They're certainly worth some couch change at this price point.
From a path perspective, as I mentioned, they start with St. Thomas, which swept the regular season series, although the most recent meeting in Denver came down to the final seconds.
If they can somehow win that first meeting, they could really benefit from a league in which some of the top teams are dealing with key injuries, including their likely semifinal opponent, South Dakota State.
The Jackrabbits haven't been the same team since losing their starting point guard, which was evident in the regular season finale when Denver blew out the Jackrabbits at home.
WCC: Santa Clara 18-1
Here's another lottery ticket that I'm not in love with, but I did show some value on the number.
History says this has no shot, as the WCC has been dominated by the top seeds over the past 25 seasons. Part of that has to do with the dominance of both Gonzaga and Saint Mary's, but the format also heavily rewards the top-two seeds with quadruple byes to the semifinals.
To wit, only one seed lower than two has won this tournament over the past 25 years, when San Diego did it. The Toreros' victory also marked the last time Gonzaga or Saint Mary's didn't cut down the nets.
The likely path for Santa Clara includes Oregon State, Saint Mary's and then Gonzaga, which is no walk in the park, especially since the Broncos will likely get limited in transition (where they thrive) against all three opponents.
However, Oregon State (which can be tricky in a tournament setting with its switching defenses) is just not the same team away from Corvallis, where it shoots 30% from 3 compared to 40% at home.
Santa Clara did win at Gonzaga earlier this season, so can the Broncos beat a Saint Mary's team that handled it twice in the regular season? It won't be easy, but the Broncos can beat anybody in this league if they're hot enough from 3.
During league play, Santa Clara ranked No. 1 in 3-point attempt rate (37th nationally for the season) and made a whopping 40%, which also led the WCC.
Per Bart Torvik, since Feb. 1, Santa Clara actually ranks ahead of Saint Mary's and one spot below Gonzaga at 14th nationally. Part of that has to do with 3-point luck, as the Broncos have made 44.6% of their 3-point attempts, while holding opponents to just 28.3%.
Regression certainly looms in that department, which is a bit worrisome, but who's to say they can't stay hot from beyond the arc for three games?
They certainly have the talent on a top-50 national offense, to go along with a highly respected head coach.
It's worth a flier in my opinion.
