Welcome to the final Mid-Major State of the Conference Report of the season. Come take a seat and read about a trio of teams that are worth backing during the final regular season stretch and briefings on possible teams to bet on in league tourneys.
It's not a full conference tourney breakdown, though. Stay tuned to other Action Network articles, as we'll cover most leagues at length.
Charleston Cougars
The Charleston Cougars have ramped up their level of play dramatically in the past six weeks. The Cougars didn't replicate last year's 31-win season, but it's getting hot at the perfect time.
Charleston has won seven consecutive games and owns a 2.5-game stranglehold over UNCW for the CAA regular season crown.
Additionally, Charleston ranks one spot higher in offensive efficiency this year than last season. The win-loss total is different, but Charleston isn't far worse.
Early on, Charleston's shooting was among the worst in the country, but it's shifted in the past seven wins (40% from 3). Pat Kelsey's team shoots 3s on a staggering 47% of possessions with a rampant-paced tempo, so most times, CofC could fire off 20+ 3s in a game and could have a rough showing if the shots don't fall.
Charleston doesn't have a go-to guy; it has a slew of capable scorers who can pick up the slack. For instance, four different scorers have led Charleston in scoring during the seven-game-winning streak — Kobe Rodgers, Frankie Policelli (x3), Ben Burnham (x2) and Reyne Smith.
The Cougars are 4-3 against the spread during this seven-game streak, with two games remaining at home against Campbell and Hofstra.
While the CAA features strong contenders like UNCW, Hofstra and Drexel, you should monitor potential betting lanes for the surging CofC Cougs in the conference tournament.
Bryant Bulldogs
Let's take a look at the Bryant Bulldogs from the America East Conference, who just fell short against Vermont and UMass Lowell.
So, why is Bryant worth discussing?
Bryant should give Vermont its best shot in the America East Tournament. The Bulldogs have lost only four conference games, two against Vermont and one each against UMass Lowell and Maine.
I trust this year's Bryant team over any of the Jared Grasso-led squads. The Phil Martelli Jr. era in Smithfield brought in a much different defensive focus.
He's shifted the scheme from primarily man to zone defense, and Bryant now ranks 89th nationally in defensive efficiency. That number is the best in program history by a long mile.
We know Bryant will defend, but can it score? On the right night, if the Bulldogs' shooting comes around, I could see them making a push for the Am East auto bid. In all four conference losses, Bryant shot below 25% from deep with 13+ attempts coming in all four games.
Anything is possible when you have two players like dominant scorer Sherif Gross-Bullock and versatile guard Earl Timberlake. The 6-foot-5 Gross-Bullock averages 18.7 points per game on 43% shooting and 38% from 3. He offers something Vermont doesn't have: a bonafide go-to scorer.
In the late moments, Vermont players will step up like they have all season. But when the moment is calling, I trust Gross-Bullock more than any other player in the America East.
You should find some favorable conference tournament prices for Bryant, whether in the futures or single-game variety. For a team with this much talent, I'll gladly snag some Bulldogs stock.
Austin Peay Governors
The Austin Peay Governors sit right in the middle of the pack in KenPom's ASUN standings, which matches the overall conference standings sheet.
Entering February, the Govs sat 3-5 in ASUN play, and star guard DeMarcus Sharp suffered an injury, which he's still out with. Once the very high-usage Sharp went down, it looked like a total death sentence for Austin Peay.
But the Governors have looked better without him.
Don't get it twisted, Sharp is awesome and will make the team better if he's back. But the Govs look great right now, winning five straight conference games before losing at home on Saturday against Lipscomb.
The main reason for the Govs' surge is Dezi Jones turning into a reliable scorer. Jones transferred in from Quinnipiac and began as the team's sixth man. Since then, he's stepped in admirably for Sharp, scoring 18+ points in all six games.
I think Austin Peay's offense looks better with Jones running the show, since he's a real perimeter-scoring threat compared to the mid-range game of Sharp.
Thankfully, it's no live-or-die by Jones. The Govs have a few other very reliable shooters in Ja'Monta Black and Isaac Haney, plus a trustworthy post scorer in Sai Witt.
There's no clear top team in the ASUN, as Eastern Kentucky, Stetson and Lipscomb all have problems just like Austin Peay. All these teams are pretty similar in terms of play style, and it will make for entertaining conference tourney games.
Since February 1, Austin Peay ranks 36th in offensive efficiency (per Bart Torvik). No team in the ASUN defends, and the Govs are no exception, but the record feels deceiving for how this team is performing right now.
I'm looking to back Corey Gipson's squad down the stretch of the regular season against Eastern Kentucky and Bellarmine.
