Action Network's Ryan Collinsworth has found the winning formula.
Over the past three NCAA Tournaments, Collinsworth has developed criteria to identify tournament teams with a legitimate shot at winning the National Championship.
He identifies teams that meet three criteria based on data from Ken Pomeroy.
- Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) of 113.9 or higher.
- Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD) of 96.2 or lower.
- Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM) of 23.83 or higher.
Each year, he lists the teams that meet the criteria and in each of the past three years it has included the team that went on to win the NCAA Tournament.
Here are the six teams Collinsworth has identified this year and their various odds to win the National Championship.
Houston
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 118.4 (11th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 89.6 (4th)
Adjusted Efficiency Margin: 28.82 (1st)
DraftKings Odds: +450
FanDuel Odds: +500
Caesars Odds: +500
BetMGM Odds: +500
BetRivers Odds: +450
UCLA
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 114.9 (22nd)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 87.2 (1st)
Adjusted Efficiency Margin: 27.63 (2nd)
DraftKings Odds: +1000
FanDuel Odds: +1200
Caesars Odds: +1200
BetMGM Odds: +1200
BetRivers Odds: +1300
Alabama
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 116.1 (19th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 88.6 (3rd)
Adjusted Efficiency Margin: 27.54 (3rd)
DraftKings Odds: +650
FanDuel Odds: +750
Caesars Odds: +700
BetMGM Odds: +700
BetRivers Odds: +600
UConn
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 119.4 (6th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 94.1 (18th)
Adjusted Efficiency Margin: 25.37 (4th)
DraftKings Odds: +1800
FanDuel Odds: +2100
Caesars Odds: +1500
BetMGM Odds: +1600
BetRivers Odds: +2300
Texas
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 116.6 (18th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 92.0 (11th)
Adjusted Efficiency Margin: 24.57 (6th)
DraftKings Odds: +1400
FanDuel Odds: +1500
Caesars Odds: +1500
BetMGM Odds: +1600
BetRivers Odds: +2100
Purdue
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 119.4 (7th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 94.8 (26th)
Adjusted Efficiency Margin: 24.55 (7th)
DraftKings Odds: +1100
FanDuel Odds: +1200
Caesars Odds: +1000
BetMGM Odds: +1100
BetRivers Odds: +1300
