The men's college basketball national championship is tonight as Florida takes on Houston, and our college basketball experts got together live on the Action Network YouTube channel to give out their favorite player props from the game.
Here are our expert player prop picks for Florida vs. Houston tonight in San Antonio.
Florida vs. Houston Player Props
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 140.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 140.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
Walter Clayton Jr. Under 19.5 Points (-115)
Sean Koerner: I might be the first person to bet on the under for Walter Clayton Jr. in this game.
Clayton has been incredible, of course, scoring 30+ points in each of his last two games.
I wouldn't consider this a "fade" on him as a player, but more of a bet on the country's best defense in the Cougars.
Not only will Houston potentially find a way to slow him down, but the Cougars play at one of the slowest paces in the country, which will limit the number of possessions Florida has — and the number of opportunities for Clayton to score.
Clayton has averaged 19.8 points over the last 17 games while the Gators averaged 88 points per game during that same span. Their team total tonight is right around 70.
I'm projecting Clayton's median closer to 17.5 points and give him around a 59% chance to stay under 19.5 points.
Rueben Chinyelu Under 5.5 Points (-120)
Nick Giffen: I expect to see some shooting regression from Rueben Chinyelu, who is shooting 65% since the start of the SEC Tournament.
Houston plays at a slow pace and forces teams to shoot from the outside more, and Chinyelu has zero career 3-point attempts. Additionally, he should play fewer minutes tonight since Alex Condon is less likely to be in foul trouble, as the Cougars are 327th in FTA/FGA ratio.
Chinyelu is averaged 6.1 points since the start of the SEC Tournament, but that's with Florida scoring 88.4 points per game. That means he's scoring 6.9% of Florida's points, and with the Gators' team total at 70 tonight, that would equate to 4.8 points even without any adjustments.
I'm projecting Chinyelu closer to 4.5 points in 17.5 minutes tonight and give him a 66% chance to stay under 5.5 points.
J'Wan Roberts Over 11.5 Points (-130)
Erik Beimfohr: One of the clearest avenues for points for Houston tonight is with J'Wan Roberts, as Florida is going to play Houston one-on-one in the post and attempt to take away the Cougars' 3-point shooting.
Primary post bigs against Florida have seen elevated volume in the tourney, as evidence by the likes of Johni Broome, J.T. Toppin, and Derik Queen going over this number.
We saw a similar setup for Houston in the second round against Gonzaga, and Roberts had a 30% usage rate in that game, scoring 18 points. He also just went over this number against Duke's elite defense and length.
Milos Uzan 20+ Points (+600)
Mike Calabrese: Milos Uzan is not afraid of the big moment. He has scored 20+ points in the Big 12 title game against Arizona and did it again against Purdue.
Uzan has the potential to unload from 3-point range tonight. He had seven games this season where he attempted six or more shots from 3-point range.
The Gators allow 23 3-point attempts her game.
Uzan got in foul trouble against Duke and it interrupted his flow. Toss in the fact that LJ Cryer was feeling it, and it was not a recipe for success in that game.
Will Richard 3+ Three-Pointers (+260)
Erik Beimfohr: The breakdown of Houston's defensive scheme is probably a broken record at this point, but these secondary 3-point shooters are a key target thanks to their blitzing and doubling scheme against ball screens and post-ups.
This should create added volume from deep for Will Richard who already attempts more than 5.5 per game, shooting a solid 35.2%. He's also made 3+ in 14 games this year.
Richard should play 34-36 minutes, and we saw the upside in a similar matchup against Texas A&M, which blitzed Clayton similarly, and Richard scored 25 points in that game, including six 3-pointers.
J'Wan Roberts Double-Double (+700)
Mike Calabrese: This bet really comes down to J'Wan Roberts' work on the glass. Since the Big 12 Tournament, he's hit 10+ rebounds in three of seven games.
He had 12 rebounds against Duke despite the Blue Devils' size, including four on the offensive glass.
