The Missouri Valley Conference has always been known as one of the top mid-major leagues in college basketball. However, last season, the MVC ranked 16th in the country, according to KenPom, after finishes of 11th, 10th and 11th in the previous three seasons.
What changed things likely was the exit of Loyola Chicago, which transitioned to the Atlantic 10. Belmont, Murray State and UIC entered to build the MVC to a 12-team league as it looks to get back towards a top-10 ranking nationwide.
The top four teams from last season posted strong records within the league (Bradley, Drake, Belmont, Southern Illinois), and second-place Drake captured the Arch Madness title and automatic bid to the Big Dance.
Seven of the 12 teams finished with at least 11 conference wins, while Evansville was the worst squad in the league after compiling a 1-19 record in MVC action.
Missouri Valley NCAAB Regular Season Title Odds
| Team Name | Odds (Via Caesars) |
| Drake | +190 |
| Bradley | +350 |
| Murray State | +450 |
| Northern Iowa | +450 |
| Belmont | +800 |
| Indiana State | +800 |
| Missouri State | +1200 |
| Southern Illinois | +1800 |
| Illinois State | +2000 |
| UIC | +2500 |
| Evansville | +4000 |
| Valparaiso | +6000 |
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League Contenders
Drake Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are projected to be the top team in the league, according to KenPom, as they tip off the season at 90th in the nation. Drake won all three MVC Tournament games by double-digits, capped off by a 26-point blowout of regular-season champ Bradley in the title game.
Unfortunately, Drake couldn’t hold onto an eight-point lead with 4:30 left against a Miami squad that eventually reached the Final Four.
Turning the page to this season, Drake returns reigning MVC Player of the Year Tucker DeVries, who averaged 19.0 points and pulled down 5.6 rebounds per game. However, three fifth-year players who combined for 30 points per game last year are gone.
Drake suffered through a 5-13 ATS slump from late November through early February, but the Bulldogs closed strong by covering eight of their final 10 games of the season, including a perfect 8-0 ATS mark in the favorite role.
Bradley Braves
The Braves posted an eight-win improvement from 2022 to 2023, as Bradley won 25 games and claimed the regular-season MVC crown. Bradley ran off 10 consecutive victories to close conference play, followed up by a pair of close wins in Arch Madness against Northern Iowa and Illinois State.
However, the Braves were chased by Drake in the MVC title game, 77-51, dashing any hopes of the school’s first NCAA tournament bid since 2019.
From a positive perspective, Bradley posted a 13-6-1 ATS mark in MVC play (even though it closed 0-3 ATS in the conference tournament), but the Braves also lost to all four top-40 schools they played in non-conference play.
Last season’s top scorer Rienk Mast (13.8 PPG) is gone, but the Braves turn to three returning starters who combined for 30 points per game in 2022-23.
Bradley doesn’t draw the same caliber of tough non-conference opponents like last season, but the Braves face UAB on the road to open things, while also taking on Tulane and Utah State prior to MVC play.
Northern Iowa Panthers
The Panthers owned a solid 8-3 mark in MVC play — to go along with a 12-9 overall record on the season — on January 25 after defeating Valparaiso.
However, UNI went into a free fall the rest of the season by going 1-8 in the final nine games to close at 9-11 in the conference.
Guard Bowen Born led the Panthers in scoring last season by averaging nearly 18 points, and UNI will get back Nate Heise, who missed a majority of the season with a hand injury, to give a big boost to the backcourt.
UNI drilled the Over in 13 of its final 16 games of the season, including a 10-1 Over mark on totals of 140 or less. In their last four home games, the Panthers went 0-4 both straight-up and against the spread, as they were listed as an underdog in each of those contests.
The Panthers will be tested in late November, as they face North Carolina in the Battle 4 Atlantis, followed by either Villanova or Texas Tech in the next round.
After that tournament, UNI won’t face another top-100 team until late January when it travels to Drake.
Indiana State Sycamores
The Sycamores posted a monster turnaround (23-13 last season) after finishing with 11 wins in 2021-22.
Indiana State earned the top seed in the CBI, but was bounced in the second round in overtime by Eastern Kentucky.
It was still a solid campaign for the Sycamores, who overcame a five-game losing streak in January to win seven straight games and finish 13-7 in league play.
A major key to Indiana State’s success last season was a No. 1 ranking on 2-point shots at 58.8%, according to KenPom, moving up from 59th the previous season.
The Sycamores lost their top scorer in Courvoisier McCauley (16.4 PPG), but they bring in several transfers that averaged double-digits in points last season.
Indiana State failed to cover the two games in the CBI last season, but managed to close out 12-1 ATS in its final 13 games against Valley opponents.
Middle of the Pack
Belmont Bruins
The first season in the MVC for the Bruins was a successful one. Belmont posted a 21-11 mark in its initial Valley campaign, including a solid 14-6 record in the league.
It was a tough ending to the season for Casey Alexander’s squad, though, as it lost its opening game of Arch Madness to Indiana State, 94-91.
Belmont covered seven of its first 10 games in MVC play, but closed 4-6-1 ATS in its final 11 contests.
The offensive numbers are hard to argue against for Belmont, which finished fifth in the country in 3-point shooting percentage (38.9%) and 12th nationwide in field goal efficiency at 55.3%.
However, the Bruins lost their top player to the NBA as Ben Sheppard (18.8 PPG) was drafted by the Pacers in the first round.
Guard Keishawn Davidson is healthy after dealing with a torn labrum prior to the start of last season, and MVC Freshman of the Year Cade Tyson (13.6 PPG) returns, hoping to lead Belmont over the hump in its second year in the MVC.
Missouri State Bears
The Bears took a step back last season, falling from 23 wins in 2022 to only 17 victories in 2023. They also exited in the second-round of the MVC Tournament.
However, Missouri State performed well in league play, posting a 12-8 record following a 4-7 start to the season.
To give the Bears credit, they suffered four non-conference losses by four points or less (BYU, Ball State, Purdue Fort Wayne and Oral Roberts). Missouri State also had six wins in the MVC by four points or less, while also knocking off Valparaiso in overtime by nine.
The Bears went through highs and lows from a point spread standpoint, compiling a 7-2 ATS mark from mid-December through mid-January. But Missouri State closed on a 3-7-3 cold stretch in the final 13 games, which included five non-covers in the favorite role.
Free-throw shooting is often overlooked, as many close losses could've been attributed to Missouri State converting 62.6% of its foul shots (360th in the country).
Senior forward Donovan Clay returns, looking to build off a nice stat-line last season (13 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.6 APG).
Murray State Racers
The transition from the OVC to the MVC was an easier one for Belmont than Murray State. The Racers finished 31-3 in their final campaign in the Ohio Valley, but head coach Matt McMahon left and took the LSU job.
Murray State turned to former coach Steve Prohm, who led the Racers to a 104-29 record from 2011-to-2015 before accepting the same position at Iowa State.
Nine players went through the transfer portal at the beginning of Prohm’s second tenure at the school, and the Racers went 17-15. They did manage to win 11 conference games, though.
The Racers upset Texas A&M as 13.5-point underdogs at the Myrtle Beach Invitational in November, one of six wins away from Murray in 19 tries last season.
Murray State closed 4-5 straight-up and 3-6 ATS the last nine games, which included four losses by 15 points or more.
Guard Rob Perry (14.1 PPG) led the Racers in scoring in 2022-23, while point guard JaCobi Wood averaged over 36 minutes a game in his first season after transferring from Belmont.
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Illinois State Redbirds
It wasn’t exactly a major improvement for Illinois State, which bumped up its conference win total by one game but managed only 11 victories on the season.
The Redbirds had one positive thing for going for them last season, as they finished sixth in the country in free-throw shooting at 79.3%.
However, that didn’t translate to a lot of close wins, as the Redbirds lost seven games by four points or less. Illinois State didn’t face a non-conference team with a KenPom ranking above 150, and lost to Western Illinois and Rhode Island.
The Redbirds failed to cover their first seven games of last season, while closing the campaign in a 1-7 ATS slump.
Ryan Pedon enters his second year as head coach, and this program can only go up from here. Illinois State returns two of its three leading scorers from last season in guard Darius Burford (12.9 PPG) and forward Kendall Lewis (10.9 PPG).
Southern Illinois Salukis
SIU is coming off a solid 23-10 campaign, which included 14 conference victories. The Salukis are likely to take a step backwards simply because their top two scorers transferred to Big Ten schools.
Guard Marcus Domask (16.7 PPG) stayed inside the state but is headed to Illinois, while fellow backcourt mate Lance Jones (13.8 PPG) looks to help Purdue go further in the Big Dance.
Let’s not call it a rebuilding season in Carbondale, but the top returning scorer is guard Xavier Johnson (seven PPG) and the top scoring transfer is guard Trey Miller, who put up 10.4 points a game at Incarnate Word last season.
The Salukis weren’t strong in the underdog role last season — compiling a 3-6 SU/ATS record — but they did shock Oklahoma State in November, 61-60, as eight-point road ‘dogs.
Two interesting non-conference games take place in Carbondale in December, as Saint Louis and Oklahoma State come to town. SIU could be worth a look as a home underdog in both spots.
Bottom of the Barrel
UIC Flames
The third team that made its MVC debut last season enjoyed the least amount of success, as UIC flamed out with a 12-20 mark after moving from the Horizon League.
The Flames were 9-5 heading into a New Year’s Eve matchup with the eventual regular-season champion Bradley, as UIC lost by 34 points. That began a 10-game losing streak for the Flames.
UIC won only four MVC games, with two of those victories coming against Evansville. During that hot start, the Flames posted a solid 10-3 ATS mark. Meanwhile, four of their final seven covers of the season came as a double-digit underdog.
Guard Jace Carter (16.6 PPG) headed south (Texas A&M) after this past season, but 6-foot-8 guard Toby Okani will be the focal point for the Flames after averaging 11.4 points and 6.8 rebounds per game in 2022-23.
Valparaiso Beacons
There's work to be done for Valpo this season, which is coming off of a 11-21 record last season and a change at the head coaching position.
Roger Powell, Jr. spent the previous four seasons as an assistant coach at Gonzaga before taking over the Beacons’ program, where he was an assistant from 2011-16.
All five starters from last season’s squad are gone, and only three players from that team return this season.
Valpo covered only two of its first 11 games in 2022-23, but went on a nice 7-2 ATS run in mid-January through February before closing at 1-4 ATS in the final five contests.
The Beacons lost four conference games in overtime and finished with five wins in the Valley, although they didn’t beat any teams in the top half of the league.
Four of their first six opponents this season are ranked 300th or below in the KenPom ratings, which could give them some confidence before facing Drake and Belmont to start MVC play.
Evansville Purple Aces
The Purple Aces have combined for 11 wins in the last two seasons and have dropped 18 of their final 19 games.
Evansville beat Northern Iowa for its lone MVC win in 20 tries in 2022-23, as the Purple Aces own a dreadful 3-35 mark in conference action since 2021.
The good news is Evansville has four starters returning from last season’s squad, so head coach David Ragland is hoping for better days ahead. Evansville’s top scorer Kenny Strawbridge Jr. (14.4 PPG) started every game last season, but the Purple Aces couldn’t overcome a 4-16-1 ATS record in MVC action.
Defense was a major issue for Evansville last season, as it ranked 357th in the country in effective FG%, 348th in opponents’ 3-point percentage and 342nd in opponents’ 2-point percentage.
One of Evansville’s five wins last season came against Miami (OH), and the Purple Aces host the RedHawks again to begin this season, which could be a confidence builder following a disastrous campaign.
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