Arizona State vs TCU Odds
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -105 | 152.5 -105o / -115u | +270 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -115 | 152.5 -105o / -115u | -350 |
Let's head out to Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas, where the Arizona State Sun Devils will take on the TCU Horned Frogs. Both of these teams are coming off a loss, so I'm intrigued to see who's going to bounce back.
When you dive into these two teams' schedules, they've both had their fair share of easy matchups, alongside a couple of tough games. This is a neutral-site game, but it may as well be a home game for the Horned Frogs.
Arizona State Sun Devils
The Sun Devils love to go fast on offense, but oddly enough, their defense is the clear strength of the team. An offense that's typically a speed racer is usually explosive, but that's not the case here.
They're 197th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, but they're 41st in Defensive Efficiency. They don't take a lot of shots from beyond the arc, which correlates to their poor 3-point percentage.
I like the fact that they protect the basketball, but their offensive rebounding struggles are a big reason they could be behind the eight-ball in this contest.
The Sun Devils are also shooting 61% from the charity stripe, which is amongst some of the worst teams in the nation.
A lot of their production comes from the inside, thanks to Alonzo Gaffney. This is the one area this offense succeeds, but the Sun Devils are going to have their hands full against a Horned Frogs team that has an elite interior defense.
What will keep the Sun Devils in this game is their elite perimeter defense, and they're fortunate enough to be facing a poor 3-point shooting team. However, the defensive rebounding hasn't been consistent enough, and they could get absolutely killed on the boards in this game.
I don't see enough areas for the Sun Devils to exploit the Horned Frogs, which leads me to believe their struggles will continue. They're going to have to hope their defense steps up big time.
TCU Horned Frogs
Just like the Sun Devils, this TCU team loves to pick up the tempo. The Frogs should have no fatigue issues in this game, considering they're used to running up and down the court.
I really like this matchup for the Horned Frogs, mostly due to their rebounding ability. This is a classic confrontation between an excellent rebounding team and a poor one, so the upper hand will have a huge advantage when it comes down to covering the spread at the end of a game.
They don't take a lot of 3-pointers, and just like the Sun Devils, they tend to struggle from deep.
TCU also is taking advantage of its opportunities at the free-throw line. Shooting 76% from the line is impressive, and the Frogs may end up getting ample free points in this contest. Between Delaware transfer Jameer Nelson Jr. and Micah Peavy, there's plenty of talent to go around in this starting lineup.
Overall, this is a huge talent mismatch that has way too much potential to turn into a blowout.
TCU also has a situational spot advantage, considering it's coming off a tough loss against Clemson.
Arizona State vs. TCU
Betting Pick & Prediction
I hate laying larger numbers in college basketball, but I have to roll with the Horned Frogs here. Considering this game is being played in Fort Worth, I have a feeling this is going to be identical to a home game for the Frogs.
The Sun Devils have been pretty solid defensively, but there's way too much to like about this TCU offense to exploit that. This defense also creates a ton of turnovers and should force the Sun Devils' offense into horrible situations all evening long.
This is also a great bounce-back spot for the Frogs, and I like all of the advantages I listed above. Some money has come in on the over, most likely because these two teams play lightning fast.
Regardless of the line movement, I think TCU will make a statement and blow out the Sun Devils in what should be a good showing from its offense. The Sun Devils are due for a ton of negative regression, according to ShotQuality.
Roll with the Frogs here, and trust their defense, even if their offense comes out a bit flat.
Pick: TCU -7.5 (Play to -9)
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