Florida Atlantic vs St. Bonaventure Odds, Pick
| Florida Atlantic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 148.5 -105o / -115u | -450 |
| St. Bonaventure Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 148.5 -105o / -115u | +340 |
Let's head to the Northeast where we have a neutral site matchup taking place at the MassMutual Center in Springfield, Mass. It'll be the scorching-hot Florida Atlantic Owls taking on the St. Bonaventure Bonnies in the Basketball Hall of Fame Classic.
Both of these teams' offenses have been excellent to begin the season, and it's reflected in their overall records. However, this will be a big test for the Bonnies since their schedule has been pretty soft to begin the season.
Florida Atlantic Owls
The Owls were one of the most hyped teams entering the 2023-24 season, and they've backed it up so far. With an 8-2 record, this team has shown it is not a fluke.
Entering this matchup, the Owls are fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency. This includes top-20 rankings in two- and three-point percentages, which displays how balanced they've been on the offensive end.
They can beat you in multiple ways. Forward Johnell Davis might only be 6-foot-4, but he's been nearly automatic from beyond the arc, nailing 50% of his three-point attempts.
The Owls' biggest weakness is from the free throw line where they are shooting just 66% as a team.
Big man Vladislav Goldin has continued his excellent efficiency on the inside from last season as the 7-footer is a huge reason the Owls have been so successful inside the paint. Per ShotQuality, they are 91% in Rim and 3 Rate, good for 11th in the country.
Not only has their offense been impressive, but the Owls are the top-ranked team in the country in quality defense. This metric measures the quality of shots opponents are putting up, and it's really impressive to see how FAU takes care of business at both ends of the floor.
The Owls typically use a smaller starting lineup alongside Goldin, and that's probably a good explanation as to why they're not the best rebounding group. They've struggled a tad on the boards, and their perimeter defense hasn't been elite.
Besides that, their defense has really stepped up and been a nice complement to their electric offense. The Bonnies are a good offensive team, but there's a sizeable talent discrepancy in this matchup.
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St. Bonavenutre Bonnies
This has been a nice start to the season for Mark Schmidt's team. The real story has been senior guard Mika Adams-Woods, who is shooting 51% from beyond the arc.
To complement Adams-Woods, forward Moses Flowers is shooting 46% from three-point range. This tandem has the ability to shoot any opponent out of the gym.
The Bonnies offensive numbers are impressive, but FAU will represent a real step up in class for them in terms of opponent strength.
The Bonnies are 64th in adjusted offensive efficiency and do an excellent job at protecting the ball. This group also does a nice job at crashing the offensive glass, where it ranks 34th in the country.
The Owls can go toe-to-toe with the Bonnies on the offensive end, plus they have a much stronger defensive unit. I don't think scoring will be an issue in this game for the Bonnies, but they are begging for trouble if they want to get into a track meet.
Their offense typically moves at a snail's pace, so if the Owls decide to ramp up the tempo like usual, the Bonnies stand little chance. Also, they are due for some serious negative regression, according to ShotQuality.
Florida Atlantic vs. St. Bonaventure
Betting Pick & Prediction
I don't trust the Bonnies to keep this a close contest, and KenPom makes the spread in this game game FAU -9. However, I really like the over in this game.
The Bonnies move at a snail's pace, but I think FAU's game plan will be to ramp up the tempo in order to force them into a track meet. If that's the case, we will see a lot of transition buckets from both of these teams, and the Bonnies should be able to continue cashing in from deep against a mediocre FAU perimeter defense.
I'd feel more confident in the Bonnies if they faced a tougher schedule thus far, but their only game against an elite Power-5 opponent resulted in a blowout (they lost by 17 to Auburn). Their defense hasn't been challenged yet, and this is not the right opponent to survive a cold-shooting day against.
I trust Adams-Woods and Flowers to find leaks in the FAU defense, and the Bonnies should keep up in the scoring department. I have no worries about the Owls' offense because they've been lethal as of late.
Pick: Over 148 (Play to 150)
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