Illinois State vs Kentucky Odds, Pick
| Illinois State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | OFF |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | OFF |
The Kentucky Wildcats return to action after the holiday break to host the Illinois State Redbirds on Friday night at Rupp Arena.
Kentucky has looked like one of the nation's better teams, and the Wildcats hope to wrap up 2023 without any more surprise losses.
But Illinois State is no cupcake, and John Calipari's team must play well to win and cover.
As evidenced by their neutral site win over North Carolina and a blowout home win over Miami, Kentucky has the offensive firepower to run good teams out of the building. The Wildcats are young, but the talent and depth reminds us of some of John Calipari's best platoon-system teams from the mid-2010s — there are likely six or seven NBA players on the roster.
Illinois State can't match the top-tier talent, but the Redbirds are no slouches. After winning only 11 games last season, they're already off to an 8-4 start. They play great defense and can make it tough on opposing offenses for 40 minutes. They have yet to face a top-100 opponent, but their next two games against Kentucky and Drake will tell us exactly what they're capable of.
Illinois State Redbirds
Illinois State is a defensive-minded team.
The Redbirds rank 110th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and are solid one through five. It's hard to generate open shots against them, and it takes quality play from the guard spots to break them down.
They're also experienced, ranking 64th nationally in average D-1 experience and 11th in minutes continuity. They play as a cohesive unit and make good teams work.
Unfortunately, Illinois State can't score. The Redbirds turn the ball over on 19% of possessions and struggle to hit jumpers, shooting 27% from 3. Add it all up, and you get the nation's 288th-ranked offense.
It won't be easy to hang with Kentucky if you can't score.
Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky is the kind of team that should excel against Illinois State's defense.
There is no shortage of guard talent, whether it be DJ Wagner, Rob Dillingham, or Reed Sheppard. Coach Cal has done a great job playing the hot players this year — whoever has the hot hand will get the nod.
The Wildcats should dictate tempo on Friday, as they play the 20th fastest pace in college basketball, while Illinois State prefers to play much slower. Look for Kentucky to get out and run as much as possible.
Illinois State vs. Kentucky
Betting Pick & Prediction
The one big concern for Kentucky is whether it'll be motivated to blow out Illinois State.
Two of the Wildcats' weaker performances this year came against lesser opponents, resulting in a loss to UNC Wilmington and an overtime win over Saint Joseph's.
But those teams had significantly better offenses than Illinois State does, so it's hard to see the Redbirds hanging for long.
Pick: Kentucky -20
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