Iowa vs Minnesota Odds, Pick
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 158.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 158.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
The Minnesota Golden Gophers and Iowa Hawkeyes will meet on Monday. As it stands, neither team looks the part of a bonafide NCAA tournament team.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
What would your guess be if I asked you to name the biggest cash cow in college hoops this year?
Congrats if you said Minnesota! Your answer is correct. The Gophers hold the best ATS number in the sport, covering 14 of 16 games (87%).
That's impressive for a team that's not firmly in the NCAA tournament discussion but has exceeded most expectations.
The Gophers sit at 12-4, with a loss in their last game against Indiana. Before the loss in Bloomington, Minnesota won seven consecutive games.
The offense is usually carried by star forward Dawson Garcia, who scores 16.5 points and grabs 7.7 rebounds per game. But the team relies heavily on a pair of up-transfer guards — Elijah Hawkins and Mike Mitchell Jr.
Hawkins is a straight-up winner. He brought Howard to an NCAA tournament last year, and now leads the entire country in assists. He's the engine for Ben Johnson's offense.
Mitchell is a great partner for Hawkins due to his shooting; he's knocking down 40% of perimeter jumpers.
The biggest key for Minnesota's offense is perimeter shooting. It attempts 3s 39% of the time and makes 35% of them. An off-shooting night makes the Gophers susceptible to an all-around dud due to their shooting reliance.
You probably think Minnesota is a run-and-gun team based on the profile I laid out. Nope, the tempo is fairly tame (207th). That pace looks like Virginia's compared to the Iowa offense.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Tempo is the name of the game for the rampant-paced Hawkeyes, who rank seventh in Adjusted Tempo. That's the quickest pace any team under Fran McCaffery has deployed.
Despite not having an All-American-type player like Keegan Murray, Kris Murray or Luka Garza, Iowa's offense remains elite. McCaffery's squad ranks 18th in Offensive Efficiency, mostly thanks to the post-play from Valpo import Ben Krikke and freshman Owen Freeman.
Krikke provides some versatile scoring chops at the four-spot. He leads the team with 16.5 points per game and showed off his shooting prowess a few nights ago against Nebraska.
Okay, I'll be the brave one to say it: This current Iowa team isn't a top-20 offense in America. I love metrics and will tout them until my final days on this planet. However, dropping 100+ points on UMBC, Northern Illinois, North Dakota and North Florida completely inflated the offensive efficiency numbers.
What happens when Iowa faces good teams? Well, it scored less than 70 points against Oklahoma, Purdue and Iowa State. Sure, it scored 84 against Creighton, but we all know the Bluejays don't defend either.
Iowa vs. Minnesota
Betting Pick & Prediction
The oddsmakers have this one off the mark. I don't think Iowa is a top-20 team in America, despite what KenPom's numbers indicate.
Not only is Minnesota the better team, it covers the spread better than anyone and it's a home game.
You're letting me take Minnesota ML (or +1) in The Barn? Sure, I'll take it and won't hesitate.
Pick: Minnesota ML (Play to -1)
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