Kent State vs Saint Mary's Odds, Pick
| Kent State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 134.5 -105o / -115u | +475 |
| Saint Mary's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 134.5 -105o / -115u | -650 |
The Saint Mary's Gaels host the Kent State Golden Flashes on Friday night. On paper, this game may look like a lopsided affair.
However, the Golden Flashes should be one of the best, if not the best, teams in the MAC this season. The Gaels are coming off a loss against Missouri State, a game in which they were heavily favored.
With the way Randy Bennett's team is playing, anything is possible in this matchup.
Kent State Golden Flashes
Kent State had its three-game winning streak snapped by the Oregon Ducks last Thursday. You could say it's encouraging that the Flashes are 7-4 before conference play, but let's take a deeper look at their wins.
The seven wins: Malone, Fresno State, Hampton, Fordham, Shawnee State, South Dakota State and Cleveland State. That's certainly not the toughest schedule out there.
According to KenPom, their best win was against the 164th team in the country (Cleveland State).
Digging through the metrics, the Flashes are balanced. They're above average offensively and defensively, but have had trouble taking care of the basketball.
The Flashes are also 68th in 3-point percentage, which is encouraging in a matchup against the Gaels' below-average perimeter defense. This is the one area they'll need to capitalize on if they want to pull off the road upset.
The Flashes are also one of the smallest teams in the country, so if they can't execute from deep, it's going to be a long night for the offense.
Guard Jalen Sullinger will arguably be the best offensive player on the floor, as he's shooting 43% from 3 this season. The battle between him and Aidan Mahaney will be quite the show.
Saint Mary's Gaels
The Gaels are going to need to turn things around quickly before WCC play begins. Their offense continues to struggle and losing as huge favorites to Missouri State wasn't exactly a step in the right direction.
Luckily for the Gaels, they'll be facing a team that's much more vulnerable than the record illustrates.
Saint Mary's offense has been abysmal this season, but I think this is a spot where the Gaels will be able to generate some open looks. The Flashes struggle defending the perimeter, so maybe the Gaels will finally turn everything around.
This offense is below average in the amount of 3s attempted per game, but the Flashes are bottom 20 in the nation in 3s allowed. The backcourt tandem of Mahaney and Augustas Marciulionis should get ample opportunities to shoot from deep.
Even if they fail to break out of their offensive woes, I think this is a game Saint Mary's can win solely on the glass as I expect the Gaels to generate a ton of second-chance opportunities.
Saint Mary's defense will be the best unit on the floor, and as long as Sullinger doesn't go nuclear, I don't see a path for the Flashes to win this game. However, the Gaels have been so bad offensively that you couldn't pay me enough to lay double digits with them right now.
Kent State vs. Saint Mary's
Betting Pick & Prediction
Despite the Gaels' sluggish tempo, I think this is a good spot to take an over. It pains me to say this, but I have a feeling that the Gaels' offense is going to turn things around.
There are too many advantages for the Gaels on the glass, and they will be the much lengthier team on the floor. It's definitely a good bounce back, buy low opportunity for the Gaels, but their inconsistency is scaring me away from playing the side.
Conversely, the Flashes' incredibly weak resume has scared me away from backing them.
They'll be outsized, but the Flashes have enough talent to generate some offense from deep. I wouldn't expect many second-chance opportunities, but if they're firing away from 3, they're bound to see a few shots fall.
If the Gaels' defense is stifling, I think they'll break out of their slow-tempo offense and score a bunch of easy buckets in transition. This won't be an enjoyable over, but it's the best way to play this game.
