New Mexico vs. UNLV Odds, Pick
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
New Mexico lost its conference opener on the road at Colorado State and then rebounded with a home win against Wyoming on Saturday. The Lobos are one of the five teams that are expected to compete at the top of the standings in the Mountain West and potentially get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Since the Mountain West has one of the largest home-court advantages in the country, the ability to grab wins on the road against the second-tier opponents like UNLV is critical.
The Lobos are clearly the better team on paper and have major advantages on the glass from a matchup perspective. The question is whether Richard Pitino can make the system work with Donovan Dent, Jamal Mashburn Jr. and Jaelen House on the floor together.
We may not have found the New Mexico's ceiling yet with all three on the court together, and the Lobos are a buy for me early in conference play.
New Mexico Lobos
If New Mexico is going to roll out three-guard lineups frequently, it's going to be difficult for UNLV to turn them over, which is how the defense is mostly designed under coach Kevin Kruger. UNLV is not quite as good at havoc and forcing turnovers as it was last season — falling from fourth nationally last year to 85th in forcing turnovers — but it's still the design of the defense to gamble and try to run in transition off those turnovers.
New Mexico is always going to have at least two of Dent, Mashburn and House on the floor, and all three are elite at protecting the ball with sub-15% turnover rates. The biggest jump New Mexico has taken year over year has been its interior defense. There was almost no rim protection last year and it was far too easy for teams to get to the rim and score.
The Lobos allowed a 50.4% rate on 2-point field goals last season. The improved defense is forcing way more turnovers and allowing less at the rim. This year, the defense on 2-point field goals ranks in the top 70 nationally.
New Mexico's other significant edge is in the rebounding department. Between taking care of the ball and generating second-chance looks against a poor defensive rebounding unit, the Lobos should get a bunch of extra possessions here.
Maximize your college basketball action with our Caesars Sportsbook promo code.
UNLV Runnin' Rebels
Outside of a 15-point win against Creighton that was carried heavily by favorable shooting variance and a dominant game from Kalib Boone, the UNLV resume is relatively unimpressive. The Runnin' Rebels' best win otherwise was Akron (ranked 92nd in KenPom) or Hofstra (ranked 117th in KenPom), both at home. They have three losses to teams outside the top 100 in KenPom.
Boone, a transfer from Oklahoma State, has been an elite addition to their interior and mid-range offense. He was able to find a ton of success against the extreme drop coverage that Creighton plays defensively. The Lobos' guards are really good at applying ball pressure — much more so than Saint Mary's or Creighton — and Dent and House should be able to deny easy access to Boone on the interior by leaning on the UNLV guards.
Much like last season, the UNLV defense has major holes in the mid-range and at the rim. With the ability for the New Mexico guards to attack down hill and get to the rim, the Lobos project to get considerably better looks.
UNLV's defense ranks 343rd in defending the midrange and 238th in finishing at the rim defense, per ShotQuality. The Runnin' Rebels have struggled against teams that have good shot-makers, and that's exactly what New Mexico can exploit.
New Mexico vs. UNLV
Betting Pick & Prediction
It's a good spot in theory with UNLV coming home for its conference opener, but this is a poor matchup for the Runnin' Rebels. UNLV's havoc defense won't turn over New Mexico enough, and the Lobos' premier shot-making will be too much for UNLV's mediocre defensive metrics.
This game will be a real test for New Mexico's improved defensive interior, and I'd bet Pitino's team to pass the test at -2.5 or better.
