Northern Kentucky vs Saint Mary's Odds
| Northern Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -105 | 130.5 -110o / -110u | +900 |
| Saint Mary's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -115 | 130.5 -110o / -110u | -1600 |
Heading out west to Moraga, California, we have the Saint Mary's Gaels hosting the Northern Kentucky Norse. The Gaels absolutely dominated Middle Tennessee on Tuesday evening, 71-34.
Randy Bennett's team will look to replicate that dominate defensive effort when the Norse come to town. The market seems to believe that the Gaels should come out on top once again.
Northern Kentucky Norse
Unless you're a Norse fan or mid-major junkie, I'm assuming you don't know much about this Northern Kentucky team. To put it nicely, it's going to be an uphill battle for it to pull off the upset.
The majority of the country has a difficult time scoring on the Gaels, and considering the Norse are 316th in bench minutes, they'll have some fatigue throughout this game. Not only that, they're going to be severely outsized, which will cause them an ample amount of issues on the offensive end.
The lone offensive strength of the Norse is scoring inside of the arc, but the Gaels are 16th in defending this area of the floor. The Norse don't shoot a lot of 3s to begin with, and even when they do, they're shooting 30% as a team.
I honestly have a hard time envisioning how they score in this game, especially since they're horrific from the charity stripe. The Norse shoot 66% as a team, which is a terrible sign when going up against an aggressive defensive team.
Defensively, there are a lot more encouraging signs, which could be the one path to keeping this a close contest. The Norse are 65th in 3-point defense, excellent at forcing turnovers and they don't foul very often.
Overall, they're 194th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — which on paper isn't great — but the Gaels' offense has been disastrous this season. The Norse should be able to hold their own, despite being significantly outsized.
Saint Mary's Gaels
There's no question the Gaels are one of the best defensive teams in the nation. Their length can go toe-to-toe with any defensive unit in the entire country.
This defense is 11th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, 36th in preventing offensive rebounds and 16th in defending the 2-pointer.
The Gaels' offense is going to hold them back when it comes to competing with Gonzaga for a WCC title. However, ShotQuality suggests that some positive regression on the offensive end may be on the horizon.
The Gaels are 54th in Rim-and-3 Rate, which suggests that they're getting a ton of quality shot attempts up. The Norse aren't completely inept on the defensive end, but this leads me to believe the Gaels should roll at home.
The Gaels are still one of the worst 3PT shooting teams in the nation at 27%, and the Norse are a solid team at defending the perimeter. This most likely won't be a matchup that they turn things around in that department.
Luckily for them, the Norse struggle big time defending the interior. Even if the Gaels' woes from deep continue, they should be able to get multiple second-chance opportunities and score at will inside.
Northern Kentucky vs. Saint Mary's
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a massive mismatch for Northern Kentucky, but this spread is a bit too rich for my blood. KenPom projects this game Saint Mary's -10, so I'm not running to the window to back the Gaels, given their offensive woes from deep as of late.
The Norse don't go particularly fast on offense, and I have a hard time envisioning many points from them on the offensive end. We all know Bennett's team moves at a snail's pace, so the clock should be moving a ton in between positions.
I love the under in this game, as I expect the Gaels to completely stifle the Norse's offensive attack. They should completely dominate on the glass, which leads to more second-chance scoring opportunities that will burn even more clock.
The Gaels are due for some positive offensive regression, but even if this comes to fruition, I trust their defense to dominate once again. This total is going to continue to drop given the recent defensive success of the Gaels, so I'd run to the window to snag the current number of 128.5.
Pick: Under 128.5 (Play to 126)
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