Texas Tech vs Houston
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 132 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 132 -110o / -110u | -500 |
Texas Tech looked astounding in its Big 12 tournament quarterfinal win over BYU, with Pop Isaacs making a million tough shots in a 14-point blowout.
But Houston is a different animal, as the Cougars showed in their quarterfinal matchup, holding TCU scoreless for the first 10 minutes of the game and winning by 15 points.
The Red Raiders technically profile as a team that could beat Houston's aggressive ball-screen blitz with crisp ball movement and supernova weak-side shooting.
But that's not how the first matchup played out. Here's how I'm betting this Big 12 tournament semifinal duel.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Red Raiders are unbelievable to watch play offense.
Isaacs and Joe Toussaint can create any shot with their dribble penetration and shot creation, and they made everything against BYU. The two finished with 32 points combined on 4-for-8 (50%) shooting from deep.
Thanks to those two, the Raiders finished third in the Big 12 in Offensive Efficiency.
Of course, they got a little lucky in that quarterfinal matchup, as BYU shot 7-for-35 (20%) from 3 and missed too many open jumpers to count. BYU cut the lead to six at one point in the second half before falling apart.
Theoretically, BYU's five-out zoom offense should've been able to beat Tech's lifeless no-middle defense, which is vulnerable to crisp perimeter passing and weak side shooting. And the Cougars got all the shots they wanted, but none fell in a tough loss.
Houston Cougars
Houston's nation-leading defense was on full display against TCU.
The Cougars are an aggressive ball-screen blitz defense that prioritizes swarming the paint on scrambles and rotations. And the latter was in full display against TCU. The Coogs blocked nine shots and held the Horned Frogs to 15-for-53 (28%) 2-point shooting despite allowing 30 offensive rebounds.
The Horned Frogs are uber-reliant on fast-break and second-chance points, and they got their opportunities against Houston.
Still, Houston showed why you can't score on the Cougars. TCU managed one point on 15 transition possessions (0.07 PPP) and 15 second-chance points off those 30 offensive rebounds.
The Cougars relentlessly denied TCU the rim, which is huge against the rim-reliant Horned Frogs.
The story will differ when playing Tech, which is less rim-reliant and more impressive in perimeter and middle-of-the-floor creation.
But, surprisingly, Tech couldn't generate any offense in the regular-season meeting, finishing with 54 points despite shooting 11-for-27 (41%) from 3. It's impossible to score in the paint against Houston, and the Red Raiders proved that with eight paint points.
Meanwhile, Jamal Shead demolished Tech's no-middle scheme in that meeting with middle-of-the-floor creation, which is imperative against an aggressive, trapping defense.
Shead finished with 29 points on 12-for-16 (2-for-3) shooting, 10 assists and just two turnovers. Houston shot 25-for-46 (54%) from 3 and scored 40 paint points.
Texas Tech vs Houston
Betting Pick & Prediction
Grant McCasland has become synonymous with the no-middle scheme during his time as an assistant and head coach.
But he can't effectively execute the scheme with his currently constructed roster.
For all their offensive miracles, Toussaint and Isaacs aren't excellent point-of-attack defenders, and Warren Washington's injury hurts Tech's interior defense. He's currently day-to-day with a foot injury, but we can't be sure if he's 100%.
As a result, I can't imagine the Red Raiders defending Shead's middle-of-the-floor creation any better than they did in the first meeting. And the Cougars might earn more at-the-rim points in Washington's absence or 50% effort.
It also doesn't help that Tech's aggressive defense means the Raiders rank 13th in the Big 12 in Open 3 Rate allowed, and we know the Cougars will take — and often make — triples.
Meanwhile, Tech must shoot 60% from 3 to create any offense against Houston's impenetrable interior defense.
I don't see that happening, so I'll back Houston to win another game by double digits.
