Washington vs Washington State Odds
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
Washington takes on Washington State on Thursday, March 7 at 9 p.m. ET on FS1. Here's NCAAB odds and a pick for Washington vs Washington State.
Washington State will conclude a regular season in which it massively overachieved on Thursday in Pullman against rival Washington.
The Cougars will win the Pac-12 regular season title if they win this game and Arizona slips up and loses either of its final two games at UCLA and at USC. Either way, the Cougars are headed to the NCAA tournament for the first time since Tony Bennett was the head coach and made the Sweet 16 in 2008.
The Cougars have won 10 of 11 in the league to close out the regular season, and that includes a season sweep against Arizona and the chance to sweep out their rival Washington.
Washington State won the game in Seattle by three in overtime and now the Cougars are a solid 6.5-point favorite at home.
Given the record of these two teams in the league, you'd probably expect Washington State to be a bigger favorite at a quick glance. However, the market remains a bit skeptical of the Cougars, who are power rated closer to the 40th-best team nationally, despite their ranking of 18th in the AP Poll.
Washington Huskies
Washington had few issues carving up the Cougars' drop coverage in the first meeting between the two teams. The strength of the Huskies' offense is shot making all over the court, and they were able to quickly run their ball actions and generate quality looks against one of the best rim-and-3 defenses in the conference.
The Cougars will force you to take and make mid-range jumpers as part of the drop, and that's an area where Washington can excel offensively.
The Huskies rank in the 73rd percentile nationally in shot-making ability, per ShotQuality. They averaged 1.21 points per possession — despite making just six total 3s — in the first meeting. They made 63% of their 2s and they had just nine turnovers in total (12.5% of possessions).
Washington isn't going to commit many turnovers on its own to begin with, and Washington State's passive drop — which doesn't apply much ball pressure — will give space for Sahvir Wheeler, Paul Mulcahy and Koren Jackson to make plays off the dribble and make those open shots.
The problem for the Huskies all season long has been their inability to get stops, and they don't match up well with the Washington State defense on Thursday. They don't have a single true plus-defender in their main rotation, and it's hampered them consistently this season.
They've rebounded better and played more man this season, but the Huskies' defense is worse overall than last year.
Washington State Cougars
After multiple seasons featuring close losses and injuries, Kyle Smith's group is finally benefitting from some good variance. The Cougars are 7-2 in close games this season and 28th in Bart Torvik's "Fortune Unexplained by Numbers" metric, a way of measuring luck.
Washington State is a deserving tournament team, but it'll probably be overseeded by the committee relative to its true talent.
Those metrics are why you're seeing the market continue to have some hesitancy about the Cougars. The market says that Washington State is only a basket or two better than Washington — who will likely fire Mike Hopkins after this season.
Smith deserves credit for reinventing his offense around the personnel this season. Last year, the Cougars took a ton of 3s, but they could get stuck in the half-court, and they didn't generate any easy 2s.
This year, the offense is far far more efficient at generating easy 2s.
This was especially true in the first meeting against Washington, when the size of the Cougars' backcourt had no problems getting wherever it wanted to on the court against a poor Washington perimeter defense.
Washington vs. Washington State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Washington's guards showed in the first meeting, and they had no problem tearing up the Cougars' defensive ball screen and motion coverages.
Mulcahy and Wheeler combined for 10 assists and Wheeler was 8-of-15 on 2-point field goals.
Wheeler's shot making and Mulcahy's creative outlets have been pluses offensively all year, but the Cougars' offense also dominated Washington at the rim.
The Huskies' defense at the rim against quality opposition has been poor all year, and for that reason, there should be plenty of points and few empty possessions in the rematch.
I'd bet this at 150 or better.
