Syracuse vs Duke Odds, Pick
| Syracuse Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 151.5 -115o / -105u | +800 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 151.5 -115o / -105u | -1400 |
ACC play is in full swing, and the Cameron Crazies will fill the stands in Cameron Indoor Stadium with blue. The Duke Blue Devils, winners of four consecutive games, play host to the Syracuse Orange, which have won five straight.
Syracuse Orange
Things in Central New York look totally different with Red Autry at the helm.
Syracuse was known for playing its patented 2-3 zone defense under Jim Boeheim. This season, Autry will mix in some zone looks — mainly against poor shooting teams like Virginia — but the Orange have played just 116 possessions of zone all year, compared to over 900 of man.
Syracuse pulled out its most important victory of the year over Pittsburgh on Saturday. I say most important for a few reasons, one being Syracuse proved it can win without star guard Judah Mintz dropping 20+ points. He scored just 12 points with four turnovers, and Cuse scored 81 points.
Syracuse loses that game in November, but the Orange's offense has improved with the emergence of Quadir Copeland and Benny Williams.
Mintz has quickly developed into one of the premier guards in college hoops. As a sophomore, Mintz is averaging 19.5 points on 49% shooting and an improved 37% from deep. If you want a more analytical dive into Mintz's dominance, he's in the 87th percentile in points per possession for P&R ball handlers, per Synergy. Good things happen when the ball is in Mintz's hands.
Although Syracuse scored 81 points against Pittsburgh, only nine of the points came from deep. The Orange will need to shoot better than 3-of-17 from deep against Duke in Durham.
The team just doesn't have a ton of shooting, though. That's why JJ Starling and Justin Taylor — two starters — need to step up in a big way.
Syracuse pulling out a win in Durham over the vaunted Blue Devils would provide some substance to its NCAA tournament resume.
Duke Blue Devils
Duke started the season ranked No. 2 in the sport and quickly fell to 5-2 following a puzzling loss against Georgia Tech. Since then, Duke has rattled off five straight wins, including an eight-point win over Baylor at MSG.
What's changed in the past five games for Duke? Well, preseason All-American Tyrese Proctor suffered an injury in the loss to Georgia Tech, which pressed freshman Jared McCain into action.
McCain has scored 21+ points in three of the past four games, and he's won the starting guard spot next to Jeremy Roach over Proctor. He provides a little more shake and explosiveness than Proctor, who's more of a skilled guard with size.
The Blue Devils' offense is high-octane and ready to strike at any moment. Duke ranks in the top 10 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, turns the ball over only 13% of the time and ranks top-30 in effective field goal percentage. Those are all winning ingredients.
I'm most impressed by the lack of turnovers, since Duke ranked 194th in turnover percentage last year.
Every college hoops fan is familiar with Kyle Filipowski. He was Duke's best player a season ago and is one of America's top players this season.
The biggest stride Filipowski has made is on defense, as he's blocking 2.0 shots and is grabbing 1.4 steals per game. Last year, Filipowski averaged less than one block per game, but now he's a reliable rim protector.
Filipowski and Roach/McCain will drag plodding 7-foot-4 big-man Naheem McLeod onto the perimeter and fire from deep. Then Duke will drive right past McLeod if he gets switched onto the guards.
This feels like a nightmare matchup for Syracuse's big man, so maybe Autry goes small with Williams at the five and Copeland at the four.
There's some major stylistic advantages in Duke's favor.
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Syracuse vs. Duke
Betting Pick & Prediction
Although Duke is clearly the better team, 14.5 points is too many.
Syracuse is good enough offensively and defensively to avoid getting embarrassed.
Mintz is one of the top guards in college hoops, and I expect a huge performance from him in a difficult environment.
Syracuse is 6-7 against the spread so far, while Duke is slightly better at 7-6.
The Orange plus the points feels like a safe bet in this one.
