Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Pick, Odds: Bet Saturday’s Underdog

Saturday, Jan. 27

6 p.m. ET

SEC Network

Tennessee Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-13.5 -110	141.5 -110o / -110u	-1200

Vanderbilt Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+13.5 -110	141.5 -110o / -110u	+725

Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

One season ago, the Vanderbilt Commodores caught fire late last season, starting with a huge win over the Tennessee Volunteers.

The Vols enter this contest ranked in the top 10 in the AP Poll, while Vanderbilt is rampantly searching for a conference victory.

Let's dive into the matchup and make a Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt pick.

Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee is coming off two dominant victories over Alabama and Florida in Knoxville. The Vols notched 86 points against the Gators and 91 against the Tide in absolute blowouts.

While the Vols aren’t known for offensive dominance, it’s real and not some flash in the pan.

Seeing some newfound offense life after several years of dull and stagnant offensive seasons is excellent.

The main reason for the improvement is the addition of Dalton Knecht. He’s a shoo-in SEC POY candidate, likely the front-runner, and could be a first-team All-American. Knecht enters scoring modes that very few can rival. He’s fully locked in right now, scoring 25+ points In four consecutive games.

Another player making huge strides is Junior big-man Jonas Aidoo, the Vols' second-leading scorer behind Knecht. Aidoo isn’t a big-time perimeter shooter, but he’s got a decent floater and hits shots from the mid-range, something that didn’t happen last season. He’s developed nicely into an All-SEC caliber center and is Tennessee's second most important player.

The Vols offense ranks 19th in offensive efficiency, the highest for Tennessee since 2019. The offensive success hasn’t come at the expense of defensive efficiency. Tennessee ranks second in defensive efficiency, with the typical stout defensive guards paired with dominating post bigs.

The biggest strength in Tennessee’s defense is contesting shots inside the arc. Opponents only shot 42% from 2-point range, which ranks sixth nationally.

Vanderbilt Commodores

After appearing in the NIT last season, people thought Vanderbilt could end its NCAA Tournament drought. Injuries and other circumstances have gotten in Vandy’s way of making the tournament, so now is the time to get right.

Entering Saturday, Vandy is 5-13 overall and 0-5 in conference play. It’s desperately looking to get the monkey off the back and secure a conference victory.

The Commodores are very poor on the offensive end, ranking 228th in offensive efficiency.

The biggest problem is Vandy’s lack of shooting, despite attempting triples 41% of the time. When you’re only connecting on 28% of 3s (345th nationally), it’ll lead to poor offensive numbers.

The two players who could reliably shoot the ball are freshman Jason Rivera-Torres and star wing Tyrin Lawrence. Rivera-Torres is shooting 31% from 3, while Lawrence is hitting 28% from deep.

Additionally, Vanderbilt isn’t strong on the defensive end, either. Vandy ranks 164th in defensive efficiency. Individually, Vandy has some pretty solid defenders, like Lawrence and Van-Allen Lubin. It comes down to when the team meshes since it’s finally healthy. I expect defensive improvements from Vandy as the season rolls on.

Coach Stackhouse could use a big game from standout point guard Ezra Manjon. Sure, Manjon’s small, but his quickness allows him to get into the lane and make plays for himself and his teammates. Manjon averages 15 points and four assists per contest.

Tennessee vs Vanderbilt

Betting Pick & Prediction

Vanderbilt is bad. There’s no nice way to say it.

But 16 points on the road is too many.

Vandy lost each of the first five conference games by less than 15 points. That proves the Commodores can compete. Vanderbilt narrowly lost to Alabama, 78-75, last week. It’s not some pushover that will lie down, roll over and lose by 40.

Tennessee is undoubtedly among the nation's elite teams, but winning on the road by nearly 20 points is asking too much. For example, Tennessee nearly lost to Georgia in Athens as 7.5-point favorites. Georgia is significantly better than Vanderbilt, but it shows there are no easy road games in college basketball.

Pick: Vanderbilt +16

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