We're right in the thick of the madness with the best betting week in all of sports right on the horizon. Let's try to find some winners on today's card.
If you're new here, I share my favorite spots that I circled on each Saturday slate. In addition to my raw projections, I'll focus on matchups, situational spots, injuries, potential regression and other ancillary factors.
This week, I highlighted three spots I had targeted, starting off with an Ivy League tilt in the afternoon.
I had Tarleton State also circled, but I'm still digging into why Freddy Hicks didn't play last game after looking great in 33 minutes the game prior. It's not an ideal travel spot, but I do like the Texans here if they're at full strength.
For reference, I write these up on Friday evening. Since the market will move overnight, I'll always list the price at which I'd play each game.
You can also follow along on the Action App to see when I place them.
- 2022-24: 62-51-1 (54.9%)
- 2025: 24-15-2 (61.5%)
- Overall: 86-66-3 (56.6%)
(This isn't my official recommendation, but there's a parlay option below.)
Harvard -1 vs. Dartmouth
2 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Dartmouth has had one of the most impressive seasons relative to expectations in college basketball. The Big Green made a major offensive philosophical shift (their adjusted tempo has increased from 311th to 22nd) in the offseason.
As a result, the Big Green will play in Ivy Madness for the first time in program history just one season after finishing in last place.
With their opponent next week already set in stone (Cornell), how much effort and focus will they have for this regular season finale on the road at Harvard? It's possible they don't push as hard as normal.
Meanwhile, Harvard is playing better basketball of late after a disappointing season and comes in fresh off of its best win of the season — the Crimson upset Yale at home (where they've played much better) last Saturday.
Dartmouth won the first meeting by 20 in its home gym, but that was a two-point game with nine minutes to go before Dartmouth hit seven 3s to blow it open. Harvard was in that game despite shooting just 3-of-23 from beyond the arc.
That's been a common theme for Dartmouth, which has held opponents to an astonishingly low 21.4% from 3 since Feb. 1 — the lowest mark in the nation. There's just no way that's sustainable, so don't be surprised if Harvard flips the script today.
Additionally, Dartmouth prefers to run in transition, but Harvard does a decent job of limiting those opportunities and should be able to control tempo at home. The Crimson really struggle to defend at the rim, but that's not really where jump-shooting Dartmouth looks to attack.
I expect Harvard to show up at home in its final game of the regular season, while I'm not sure how motivated Dartmouth will be in this particular spot.
UMass Lowell +1.5 at Maine
6 p.m. ET on ESPN+
I threw a dart on the River Hawks to win the America East Tournament in part because I do like them in their first game against Maine.
I think it's a bit of an advantage that they get to see this unique Maine defense (in the same gym) for a second straight game. Hopefully that leads to a reduction in turnovers, which have plagued Lowell all season long.
Maine did sweep the regular season series, but it won both games by a single point. That was basically the story of the season for the snake-bit River Hawks, who finished 1-9 in games decided by five points or less. That includes four losses by a single point in league play and another by two.
This team still has plenty of talent, led by Max Brooks.
Lowell can also control the glass in this particular matchup, which isn't always the case with the River Hawks. In the two regular season meetings, they finished with a +26 net rebounding advantage.
Since Feb. 1, the River Hawks (who have really refined their rotation) have been the better team, despite opponents shooting 38.5% from 3-point land.
Don't be surprised if Maine has an off shooting night, especially since I believe the Black Bears have been shooting a bit over their heads in league play (north of 39% from distance).
Give me the more talented preseason favorite to get its revenge in a great spot to hit the reset button after an extremely unlucky run in conference.
And if nothing changes, the 1.5 points might be super valuable for a team that seemingly invents new ways to lose by one every time out there.
Utah +12.5 at BYU
10 p.m. ET on ESPNU
BYU has been an inferno since Feb. 1, but I'm selling high on what I believe is the peak of the market on the Cougars, who could come out a bit hungover after an exhausting double-overtime win in Ames against Iowa State.
While I don't expect them to overlook their bitter in-state rival that beat them in overtime earlier this season, there could be a bit of fatigue in a game that should feature plenty of 3-point attempts.
Utah has a very underrated offense, especially when it isn't turning it over. That shouldn't be as much of an issue against a compact BYU defense that doesn't really take the ball away at a high clip.
Plus, the Utes' size inside could also give the BYU interior defense some issues, as it did in the first meeting.
Utah will have to make some 3s against a Cougar defense that forces opponents to beat them from the outside, and hopefully they don't miss too many free throws, where they're absolutely dreadful.
But I believe this is just a bit too many points against a still vulnerable BYU defense. I still believe that's the case even though Utah hasn't been very inspiring away from home (364th nationally in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric).
Plus, the elevation edge that BYU usually possesses is neutralized against Utah.
