Welcome to all of the bettors who have migrated over to college hoops following the long grind of the football season. We have a full slate of college basketball to get to today.
If you're new here, I share my favorite spots that I circled each Saturday. In addition to my raw projections, I'll focus on matchups, situational spots, injuries, potential regression and other ancillary factors.
This week, I highlighted my four favorite spots I had targeted.
For reference, I write these up on Friday evening. Since the market will move overnight, I'll always list the price at which I'd play each game. You can also follow along on the Action App to see when I place them.
- 2022-24: 62-51-1 (54.9%)
- 2025: 14-11-1 (56.0%)
- Overall: 76-62-2 (55.1%)
(A parlay is not my official recommendation, but if you so choose to take that route, the option is below.)
Arkansas +8.5 at Texas A&M
Noon ET on ESPN
For what it's worth, I love this Aggies squad, hence why I bet them to make the Final Four earlier this season.
However, we've likely reached the peak of the market on Buzz Williams' bunch. The Aggies have won four straight and six of seven overall in SEC play, but A&M was as much of a known commodity coming into the season as any team.
The Aggies have one of the most experienced rosters in the country and ranked eighth nationally in Minutes Continuity.
We knew who this team was and still do. The Aggies are shot volume monsters that will dominate the glass on both ends (especially on the offensive end to compensate for poor shooting) with an aggressive defense that will harass opposing teams for 40 minutes.
However, the same can't be said of Arkansas, which came into the season with a brand new head coach and an overhauled roster that ranked 330th in Minutes Continuity.
It's possible this team is much better now than it was earlier in the season, which we've seen many times before with John Calipari as a head coach. I believe that to be the case, which I don't think the market is properly accounting for here.
It's also worth noting that the Hogs have actually played much better since losing Boogie Fland to a season-ending injury. Fland is a very talented player, but he was shooting just 28% from 2 and 3 in SEC play.
Without him on the floor, the team's roles seem more defined on offense (Arkansas has received a major boost from the emergence of Zvonimir Ivisic, who's on fire) and the defense hasn't missed a beat.
To wit, since losing Fland, Arkansas ranks 27th nationally, per Bart Torvik, with a top-15 defense over that six-game stretch that included road wins at Kentucky and Texas. In the 18 games with Fland, the Razorbacks ranked 58th overall with a defense that ranked 34th.
Arkansas has also been taking very good care of the ball sans-Fland, with a top-25 turnover rate. That's key against the swarming Aggies defense that forces turnovers at a top-30 rate nationally.
Meanwhile, turnovers have become a bit of an issue for Texas A&M, which could lead to plenty of transition opportunities for Arkansas. The Razorbacks love to run and rank in the 95th percentile in efficiency when doing so.
That could spell trouble for the Aggies, who have a porous transition defense, ranking in the 91st percentile in frequency and 34th percentile in efficiency.
Now, I do have major concerns about the Hogs getting killed on the glass on both ends, as that's a glaring mismatch in favor of the Aggies. However, Texas A&M just doesn't really profile as an ideal large favorite since it'll go through scoring droughts and struggles from the free throw line.
Arkansas also forces opponents to operate in isolation, where Texas A&M has been uber-inefficient.
Assuming Arkansas can limit its turnovers and hit some pick-and-pop 3s that A&M will certainly allow, it should get enough easy buckets in transition to stay within this number, assuming it just doesn't get completely annihilated on the boards.
It's also a decent situational spot, as I do think the A&M home court is a bit overrated, especially for a noon tip against a hungry Hogs team fighting for its tourney lives. But more importantly, I believe Arkansas is still a bit undervalued in the market.
Pick: Arkansas +8.5 (Play to +8)
Cincinnati +12.5 at Iowa State
4 p.m. ET on ESPN2
After a red hot start across a very soft non-conference schedule, Cincy really faltered to begin Big 12 play.
However, after a 2-8 start, the Bearcats have won three straight. The defense has never been the issue, as they sport a top-25 stop unit in large part due to the rim protection of Dillon Mitchell and seven-footer Aziz Bandaogo.
Cincy's problems in conference play all stem on the other end of the floor, where it's really struggled to score. However, over the past three games, the Bearcats have seemingly figured some things out with outputs of 93, 84 and 85 points.
Jizzle James has really come on and has regained his confidence after a mid-season swoon, while Josh Reed is also playing his best basketball.
This team, in general, just needed a confidence boost on that end of the floor, and I believe it can continue to build on this recent stretch, even if this is a major step up in class.
I also don't mind the matchup. Cincy doesn't turn the ball over much and it does an adequate job of defending without fouling, which are two keys against the Cyclones, who force turnovers at a top-20 rate nationally and get to the line frequently.
Additionally, Cincinnati boasts an elite transition defense, ranking in the 15th percentile in frequency and 92nd in efficiency, per Synergy. That's also paramount against an Iowa State offense that ranks in the 83rd and 93rd percentiles, respectively.
Iowa State is also one of the most efficient offenses at the rim in the country (9th in NP%, per Haslametrics), but I already mentioned the stout Cincy interior defense that ranks in the top 20 in that same category.
Lastly, I do believe Cincy has been a bit unlucky with 3-point variance in league play, so hopefully that breaks its way here in a spot where you should get a maximum effort with its tourney lives hanging in the balance.
In a game that should be played more in the half-court, points may come at a premium, which makes this big number even more valuable — even if I do worry about Iowa State's prowess on the offensive glass.
Pick: Cincinnati +12.5 (Play to +11.5)
Princeton +11 at Yale
8 p.m. ET on ESPNU
I've had this spot circled since Princeton lost the first meeting at home to Yale in a game in which the Tigers had eight fewer turnovers and attempted 15 more shots. You don't see that everyday.
Yale has the exponentially more efficient 2-point offense, but Princeton will have the opportunity to trade plenty of 3s for 2s. The Tigers rank in the top-35 nationally in 3-point attempt rate (and makes them at a clip north of 36%), while the Yale defense ranks 348th in 3-point attempt rate.
How did Yale overcome the shot volume disparity in the first meeting? Well, Princeton missed 28 3s, while Yale connected on 9-of-16 (56.2%).
Meanwhile, Princeton's two best players — Caden Pierce and Xaivian Lee — both had pretty miserable games for their standards. I expect them both to be much better this time around.
That's especially true following a bad loss at Brown last night in which they may have been caught peaking ahead a bit to this game (as was potentially Yale, which beat Penn by one in the final seconds).
The Tigers should also limit Yale's second-chance opportunities, where it usually thrives. On the season, Yale ranks 36th in offensive rebounding percentage, but Princeton sits in the top 15 in the country in defensive rebounding rate, per KenPom.
Keep in mind: In that first meeting, Yale closed as a two-point favorite at Princeton. Yes, it won by seven after building a huge lead, but it was a loser in that game, per ShotQuality.
Now we're getting an additional nine points when home court for both teams is only worth about a bucket each way. It's the second straight road game on back-to-back days, but I believe this line is still too high.
I'm backing the Tigers, who have a pair of impressive wins away from home against Rutgers and Saint Joseph's — two teams in the same ballpark as Yale.
Let's just hope the Princeton 3s start to fall following a four-game stretch in which the Tigers have only made right around 30% from beyond the arc.
Pick: Princeton +11 (Play to +10)
Texas -1.5 vs. Kentucky
8 p.m. ET on ESPN
On the surface, this is an obvious situational spot. Texas is reeling a bit after three straight losses, while Kentucky comes to Austin fresh off a second win over Tennessee.
More importantly, Kentucky will be without Jaxson Robinson and Lamont Butler, which will force Mark Pope to lean on his unseasoned freshmen once again.
I don't think that will go as well on the road, and both will be sorely missed.
I also have absolutely no faith in the Kentucky defense, especially on the road and especially without Butler. The Cats rank 291st in 2-point defense away from Lexington, yet they rank in the top 20 in 3-point percentage despite sitting outside the top 300 in volume allowed.
There's major regression looming in that department.
Conversely, since January 1, Texas is shooting just 30% from 3 in home games, while opponents have hit on 43% of their attempts.
Don't be surprised if we see some of that two-way looming regression work in the favor of the Longhorns tonight.
And while Kentucky is an elite shooting team, I'm not sure it can sustain a 42.1% clip in SEC play.
Additionally, Kentucky won't kill Texas on the offensive glass, where the Longhorns are vulnerable (even more so without Arthur Kaluma). Kaluma is doubtful, but it does look like Devon Pryor will play, and the Horns did at least beat Texas A&M without Kaluma earlier this season.
Texas also has an elite transition defense, which is always key against the Cats. And while Kentucky does an outstanding job of limiting transition opportunities, it struggles to get any stops when teams do find those possessions.
Don't be surprised if Texas gets plenty of easy buckets in transition, where it ranks in the 99th percentile nationally, per Synergy.
I think this is too good of a buy-low spot to pass up on Texas, which has played the hardest SEC schedule to date.
That's especially true against a shorthanded Kentucky squad that's just 3-4 over its past seven, with one of those wins coming against South Carolina (while at full strength) and the other two coming against Tennessee because the Vols couldn't throw the ball in the ocean (14-of-63 combined from 3).
Pick: Texas -1.5 (Play to -2)
