Every Saturday during the season, I'll share my favorite spots that I had circled (and are still in range for a bet). In addition to my raw projection, I'll focus on matchups, situational spots, injuries, potential regression and other ancillary factors.
This week, I highlighted my four favorite spots for Saturday's slate and provided some quick thoughts on four other matchups that are on my radar.
For reference, I write these up on Friday evening. The market will obviously move overnight, so I'll always list the price at which I'd play each game. You can also follow along on the Action App to see when I place them.
- 2022-24: 62-51-1 (54.9%)
- 2025: 7-5 (58.3%)
- Overall: 69-56-1 (55.2%)
Rutgers +6 vs. Michigan State
1:30 p.m. ET on CBS
Michigan State has quietly built a two-game lead in the loss column of the Big Ten standings following a 7-0 start to league play — although, it's certainly worth noting that the Spartans have played three fewer games than Purdue and have the hardest remaining schedule in the conference.
While Michigan State has played the easiest league schedule to date (18th), Rutgers has played a top-five Big Ten schedule so far.
I personally think this is the perfect time to sell high on Sparty, who I'm not fully sold on. I do really like their depth and balance, but there's no denying they've benefited from only playing three road games in conference play (Minnesota, Ohio State and Northwestern).
They've also held league opponents to a paltry 25.9% from 3, which doesn't seem sustainable, especially at fairly high volume.
I also believe Rutgers comes into this game a bit undervalued after essentially playing three games (all losses) without Dylan Harper, who missed one entirely and was basically attempting to do wind sprints in the other two at clearly less than 100%.
Since he's returned to seemingly full health, Rutgers has looked like a completely different team, with a pair of wins over UCLA and Nebraska, in addition to a close loss at Penn State.
It's a small sample size, but over the past two weeks, the Scarlet Knights rank fourth nationally in overall adjusted offensive efficiency. They've started to figure some things out on that end of the floor, where it helps to have two potential lottery picks in Harper and Ace Bailey.
While the defense still has major flaws, especially at the rim, they can score with anybody. And at least Rutgers doesn't foul too often, which is key against a Michigan State team that lives at the line (it makes over 80% of its free throw attempts, 80th nationally).
From a schematic perspective, Rutgers does have a very good transition defense, preventing those opportunities at an elite level (eighth percentile, per Synergy). That's critical against any Tom Izzo-led team.
Michigan State also excels at limiting transition chances (seventh percentile), which I actually believe works in Rutgers' favor.
The Scarlet Knights try to run way too frequently, but are simply not efficient when doing so. On the season, they rank in the seventh percentile in transition points per possession, compared to the 74th percentile in the half-court, per Synergy.
Harper (who I'm assuming will play with his ankle issue but could be wrong) should have plenty of success operating the show against a Michigan State defense that's been a bit vulnerable in pick-and-roll defense.
I do have my concerns about Michigan State completely dominating the offensive glass in this particular matchup, but give me the two best players on the court at the Garden in what profiles as a more half-court-style game. I think that better suits the Scarlet Knights.
Ultimately, I believe we're at the peak of the market on the Spartans.
Pick: Rutgers +6
USC Upstate +12.5 at Longwood
3 p.m. ET on ESPN+
This is a potential major flat spot for Longwood following two massive league wins over High Point and Radford to position itself right in the thick of the Big South race.
USC Upstate isn't a good basketball team by any stretch, but the Spartans have started to figure some things out offensively as of late (against the league's most difficult schedule to date) after basically starting over in the offseason.
USC Upstate wants to get out in transition as much as possible (11th in Adjusted Tempo, 96th percentile in transition frequency), which is its only means of efficient offense.
Well, fortunately for the Spartans, the Lancers have a horrid transition defense (20th percentile efficiency), so they could get enough easy buckets on the run to stay within this number. Longwood also has zero defense at the rim, so the Spartans could get some easy looks there, as well.
Additionally, from a regression standpoint, Longwood, which doesn't profile as a great outside shooting team, has connected on over 38% of its 3-point attempts in league play.
Meanwhile, Upstate's Big South opponents have made over 40% of their attempts from beyond the arc. That looming regression could play a major role since Upstate will certainly allow its fair share of shots from the perimeter.
I do worry a bit about the turnover disparity and Longwood's prowess on the offensive glass — plus its ability to get to the line — but I did have this spot circled for the road double-digit pup.
Pick: USC Upstate +12.5 (Play to +12)
Troy -3 vs. South Alabama
6 p.m. ET on ESPN+
This is one of my favorite spots on the board, as these two teams will meet for a second consecutive game since both had their weekday contests cancelled due to weather.
I believe that provides a huge advantage for Troy, which gets the entire week to prepare for South Alabama's unique defensive scheme after just seeing it last Saturday.
In that game, South Alabama jumped out to a massive lead before the Trojans started to figure some things out, clawing all the way back before falling by a single point.
On the season, South Alabama presses at a top-20 rate nationally (27% of the time) and plays zone defense at the highest rate in the country:
- South Alabama (91.2%)
- VMI (90.7%)
- Merrimack (88.7%)
For what it's worth, Troy also saw Merrimack earlier in the season, so it has as much experience against zone as any team in the country. While the metrics don't paint a rosy picture for those possessions, that experience is invaluable ahead of this matchup, especially with a week to prep.
The Trojans should also dominate the offensive glass (ninth nationally in 3P%) against a South Alabama zone defense that allows a high frequency of second-chance opportunities — as you might imagine.
Additionally, the Jaguars won't hurt Troy on the offensive glass, where it's been vulnerable.
South Alabama games are a wild watch since they're filled with 3-point attempts on both ends, so the variance is extremely high. Can the Jags keep shooting 36% from deep while holding opponents to 26% on extreme volume? I doubt it.
As long as Troy doesn't turn it over constantly (which can be a problem) against the South Alabama pressure, I like the home Trojans in a good buy-low/sell-high spot. Troy has lost three of four, but it could've easily won all four.
This is a situation I fancy after Troy just saw this unique defense. Let's just hope the 3-point variance works in our favor.
Pick: Troy -3 (Play to -3.5)
Xavier ML (-106) vs. UConn
8 p.m. ET on FOX
I still think UConn is living a bit off of its insane success in recent seasons, but this is a flawed basketball team as of right now, especially on the defensive end.
The Huskies also really miss Liam McNeeley on the offensive end, a unit that's started to suffer a bit in his absence.
Since McNeeley went down in early January, UConn ranks 60th overall in adjusted efficiency, per Bart Torvik, including a ranking of 167th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
For reference, Xavier ranks 41st over that same span.
Over that five-game stretch, UConn has gone 3-2, but the wins came by three at home against a shorthanded Providence squad, two in overtime at home against Butler and eight at Georgetown. Meanwhile, the Huskies' two losses came against Creighton (at home) and Villanova.
Keep in mind this team's losses from earlier in the season — against Dayton and Colorado on a neutral court — haven't aged well. You could say the same for some of its best wins against Texas, Gonzaga and Baylor.
I think the perception would be drastically different if the Huskies ended up dropping either or both home overtime wins in Big East play against Butler and these Musketeers, who didn't have the services of Zach Freemantle for that contest.
While UConn's play has deteriorated of late, Xavier has started to play its best basketball of the season. Following a three-game winning streak that included a road win at Marquette, the Musketeers had St. John's dead to rights on the road, but they coughed up a 16-point second-half lead before falling in overtime.
Close losses have definitely been a theme for the Muskies this season.
This is an absolutely massive game for Xavier's tourney hopes in front of what should be a raucous crowd on a Saturday night at the Cintas Center.
Plus, UConn simply can't defend without fouling at the moment (345th in free throw attempt rate), so expect the Musketeers (who rank in the top-50 in free throw attempt rate) to live at the line, where they thrive (top-20 in FT%).
While the UConn half-court defense has holes all over the place, the Xavier defense has really picked it up over the past month.
Look, I fully trust this UConn staff will have things figured out by the time March rolls around, but as of this moment, Xavier is playing much better basketball, so I gladly took the home Muskies at what I think is a short price in a great spot.
Pick: Xavier ML -106 (Play to -1)
Quick Hitters
- I'm tempted to try to catch the falling knife with Colorado +16, which has lost seven straight to open Big 12 play. The Buffaloes haven't been good by any stretch, but they've also dealt with injuries and illness to start to league play. They're, at least, finally at full strength. Additionally, this is a potentially sleepy spot for Arizona, which comes home for a noon local tip against lowly Colorado with Iowa State coming to town on Monday. I could see the Wildcats being a bit flat, but Colorado will need to hit some outside shots (which Arizona will give opponents) or else the Buffs will get cooked in transition. They do, at least, have size to defend at the rim and won't face a defense that will fully exploit their incessant turnover issues.
- Can I trust Oral Roberts +4 to hit some 3s at home? Omaha remains at the top of my potential regression leaderboard after jumping out to its first ever 6-0 start in Summit play thanks to extreme 3-point luck. In conference tilts, the Mavericks are shooting 45% from 3 while holding opponents to 31.2% on high volume, which they should see again against the Golden Eagles. Situationally, this is a great spot, with Oral Roberts coming off a bad home loss to Denver while Omaha hits the road after winning a battle for first place against St. Thomas.
- Is it time to finally sell Saint Mary's? It might be. Washington State +5.5 has dealt with so many injuries this season, but it did see the return of Rihards Vavers (who provides some outside shooting) last game and should get back Isaiah Watts on Saturday after he missed the past nine games. That's huge because his replacement has been horrid, and he spearheads the Cougars' defensive pressure.
- I'll probably be on Nevada -3 in some form or fashion, but I regret missing the cheap opener. I don't trust this Aztecs offense, especially on the road in altitude for a second straight game after winning in overtime at Air Force. In an affair that should be played completely in the half-court with an abundance of jump shots, I trust the Pack's shooters at home much more.
