Welcome to February and the first weekend without college football or the NFL since August.
Outside of next Sunday, it's all about college basketball from here on out, and March will be here before we know it.
Every Saturday during the season, I'll share my favorite spots that I circled (and that are still within range for a bet). In addition to my raw projection, I'll focus on matchups, situational spots, injuries, potential regression and other ancillary factors.
This week, I highlighted my five favorite spots I had targeted for Saturday's slate, starting with a pair that tipoff at noon ET.
For reference, I write these up on Friday evening. Since the market will move overnight, I'll always list the price at which I'd play each game. You can also follow along on the Action App to see when I place them.
- 2022-24: 62-51-1 (54.9%)
- 2025: 9-7 (56.25%)
- Overall: 71-58-1 (55.0%)
Tennessee vs. Florida
12 p.m. ET on ESPN
Editor's Note: Tennessee's Zakai Zeigler (knee) is out for today's game. Igor Milicic Jr. (illness) is also out.
After back-to-back losses, Tennessee will host Florida with major revenge on its mind after getting blasted in Gainesville earlier this season in a game the Vols started 1-for-24 from 3.
This is the best and most obvious situational spot on the board, hence why you've seen the line balloon out from the open of -2.5. That's become a theme in recent seasons, with the spot tax getting way out of hand in certain situations, especially on Saturdays for some reason.
I would've jumped in on the opener, but there's still some uncertainty regarding the status of Zakai Zeigler, who is questionable with a leg and also a shoulder injury. He's critical on both ends of the floor for the Vols.
Not only is his pressure defense vital in this matchup against a Florida defense that likes to initiate everything with its guards, but he's also been the most productive player for Rick Barnes on the offensive end of the floor.
Per Evan Miya, here's the season-long OBPR (Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating) for the top-7 Vols in minutes:
- Zakai Zeigler: 4.55
- Jordan Gainey: 2.94
- Chaz Lanier: 2.76
- Igor Milicic Jr.: 2.64
- Cade Phillips: 2.15
- Felix Okpara: 1.84
- Jahmai Mashack: 1.66
And on the other end of the floor, only Okpara rates (slightly) higher than Zeigler's 3.66 DBPR. He's that important.
If at full strength, I like the matchup and spot for Tennessee.
The Vols will have to hit some outside shots, which they failed to do against Florida in the first matchup. They shot 15-for-67 (22.4%) from deep in their two most recent losses. Unsurprisingly, Tennessee ranks in the top five nationally in expected positive 3-point regression, per ShotQuality.
That could come against a Florida defense that's been a bit fortunate in that regard to date.
Despite winning in blowout fashion in the first matchup, Florida's half-court offense wasn't overly impressive at just 0.8 points per possession. Tennessee's pressure on the perimeter can take the Gators out of what they want to do.
The Vols also boast one of the nation's best transition defenses (fifth lowest frequency allowed, per Synergy), which is critical against a Florida offense that loves to run (92nd percentile) and is elite when doing so (88th percentile).
I worry a bit about Florida's prowess on the offensive glass in this matchup, but the spot is pristine. Now it just comes down to health and price.
Pick: Tennessee -5 (Monitoring Zeigler's status. I may use as a moneyline piece, depending on where the line goes.)
Wake Forest vs. Pittsburgh
12 p.m. ET on ESPN2
I love this spot for Wake Forest, which should also have this game circled after Pitt essentially eliminated it from the NCAA Tournament with a win in the ACC Tournament last season.
If the Demon Deacons want to reach the dance this year, they need this victory. A loss eliminates them from at-large consideration when you consider the lack of opportunities for key victories remaining on the schedule (outside of a very likely loss at Duke) due to the overall weakness of the ACC.
After two straight losses against the two hottest teams in the league (Duke and Louisville), in which they were also dealing with some team-wide illness issues, this is a decent buy-low spot on the Deacs, who should be close to full strength here.
Plus, I think they match up quite well with a Pitt team that has played pretty dreadful away from home, ranking 362nd in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric. Per Bart Torvik, Pitt ranks in the top 25 in overall adjusted efficiency at home compared to outside the top 90 in road and neutral site games.
Wake Forest can take advantage of an abhorrent Pitt ball-screen defense and get some buckets inside in this matchup. It can also live at the line (first in league play in free throw rate), where it's generally very effective.
The Demon Deacons aren't a great outside shooting team by any measure, but you'd think some positive regression is coming at home, where they've shot just 27.9% from 3 on the season, including 23.3% in four January home games.
They can also live in the mid-range against Pitt, where they've been very effective (26th in mid-range FG%).
Most importantly, Pitt won't exploit Wake's significant issues on the boards. The Demon Deacons rank 263rd and 239th in offensive and defensive rebounding rates, per KenPom.
Well, Pitt ranks 223rd and 222nd, respectively, and it's outside the top 300 in both over the past month. That's pretty important from a shot volume perspective.
Ultimately, I trust the Wake Forest defense much more than Pitt's. I have the Demon Deacons with a top-25 defense on the season, and they keep getting better.
Meanwhile, Pitt's defense has many holes and continues to regress, ranking 139th in overall adjusted efficiency since January 1 and 125th since December 1 after ranking in the top 25 over the first month of the season.
Wake Forest's overall analytical profile took a hit against some bad teams earlier in the season (some of which was unwarranted due to late meaningless runs).
Still, I have had the Deacs as the better team overall since the beginning of December, with Pitt seemingly peaking at the end of November.
Pick: Wake Forest -2 or Better
Villanova vs. Creighton
1 p.m. ET on FOX
I think it’s time to sell some Creighton stock after the Bluejays have rattled off six straight victories to put themselves comfortably in the NCAA Tournament field (96% chance of an at-large, per Bart Torvik).
The Jays have started to play better basketball recently, but four of those six victories came against DePaul, Butler, Seton Hall and Providence, with a few of those teams also dealing with key injuries.
Their other two wins are much more impressive against UConn and Xavier, but the Huskies are a bit of a mess right now, and they caught the Muskies in a tremendous situational spot.
The bottom line is that I’m still not entirely sold on this Creighton squad that certainly has been a bit more vulnerable away from Omaha, ranking 336th in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric.
While Creighton has covered five straight games, Villanova comes in on the opposite end of the spectrum, failing to get to the window in five consecutive contests and losing four of five straight up.
As a result, this is a bit of a buy-low spot for the desperate Wildcats, whose tourney lives are on life support (12.5% at-large chance, per Bart Torvik).
Without this win, the plug will be hanging out of the outlet, so I’d expect maximum effort after more than a week off since dropping two straight.
From a matchup perspective, Creighton will get its 3s up against a vulnerable Villanova defense that goes underneath everything on the perimeter.
Could that backfire in a matchup of one of the heaviest 3-point-attempt offenses against a defense that ranks 335th in 3-point rate allowed? Absolutely.
That’s precisely what happened in the first meeting when Creighton hit 14-of-25 from distance. If that happens again, it’s probably lights out for Villanova. However, the Jays are probably due for some shooting regression from beyond the arc after starting league play at 38%, with their big men shooting way over their heads.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they had a tough shooting night.
Additionally, Villanova does a solid job of preventing opportunities at the rim, ranking in the top 25 nationally in near-proximity-attempt rate allowed, which is critical when defending against Ryan Kalkbrenner.
On the other end of the floor, it’s all about stud Eric Dixon, who has torched the KalkDrop defense in the past, clearing 20 points in each of the past six meetings vs Creighton, including 32, 25 and 27 in the most recent three matchups.
Against this Creighton defensive scheme, you have to hit mid-range jumpers. No team has allowed a higher frequency of attempts from the mid-range than the Jays.
Fortunately for Nova, its offense is reasonably efficient in that regard.
Don’t expect many turnovers, fouls or second-chance opportunities in a game that will likely come down to who can make more jumpers.
I’ll take my chances with the Wildcats (who rank 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency) at home in a good situational spot, with Dixon hopefully going off again to close it out down the stretch and earn a regular season split with Creighton for the sixth consecutive season.
Pick: Villanova -2 or Better
UCF vs. BYU
4 p.m. ET on ESPN
On the surface, this is a tricky spot for the Cougars, who head east for a long trip to Orlando after an overtime win against BYU with a home date vs. Arizona looming on Tuesday.
And it's not like BYU has been a force away from Provo, ranking 353rd in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric. The Cougars have one road win this year against lowly Colorado, with losses to three non-tournament teams in Utah, TCU, and Providence (plus Houston).
Meanwhile, for UCF, its tourney hopes could eventually come down to this result. Per Torvik, the Knights have a 23.9% chance of securing an at-large berth. Securing this quad-one victory would provide a massive boost for their resume.
The Knights are also playing some of their best basketball of late (21st in momentum, per Haslametrics), especially on the offensive end, where they ranked 18th in overall efficiency in January.
I believe they can give the BYU defense trouble in many ways, including off the dribble and from beyond the arc against BYU's super compact scheme.
The Knights also aren't super rim-reliant on that end of the floor, which BYU tries to take away at all costs, leading the nation in Near-Proximity Attempt Rate allowed.
On the other end of the floor, UCF's extended pressure could trouble the Cougs, who can be turned over.
The Knights are also elite at taking away the 3-pointer, which is critical against a BYU bunch that has connected on over 37% of its 3-pointers this season. In fact, this matchup includes the top 3-point-attempt rate offense (BYU) playing the top 3-point-attempt rate defense (UCF) in league play.
UCF's transition defense has been an absolute mess (26th percentile on high volume), but BYU isn't looking to run frequently (33rd percentile) and isn't that efficient when it does (42nd percentile).
While BYU isn't looking to get out in transition, UCF is whenever possible.
The Knights rank 28th in adjusted tempo and in the 83rd percentile in transition frequency, per Synergy. While they have been highly inefficient in that regard, they could find some success against a BYU defense that struggles (23rd percentile) when teams do get out on the break.
In fairness, the Cougars excel at limiting transition opportunities, so UCF will likely be forced to operate more in the half-court than usual, where they are super reliant on plenty of isolation ball with Keyshawn Hall, Darius Johnson and Jordan Ivy-Curry.
However, that could work against a BYU defense that ranks in the 19th percentile in isolation defensive efficiency.
Lastly, UCF has played a much more challenging overall schedule (18th vs. 88th for BYU), especially in conference play. Take a look at UCF's league losses:
- Kansas (twice)
- at Iowa State
- at Arizona
- vs. Houston (by 1)
It doesn't get much more brutal than that, yet the Knights could easily have won at Kansas and vs. Houston to go along with previous victories over Texas A&M and at Texas Tech.
Meanwhile, BYU has league wins over Baylor, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Colorado and Cincinnati, with four of those five coming at the Marriott Center. Color me less than impressed.
In four Quad 1 games this year, BYU's defense ranks outside the top 200 in overall efficiency, with the Cougars going 1-3 in those games.
Meanwhile, UCF's defense, which isn't anything to write home about, ranks 123rd in nine of those contests.
Pick: UCF -1 or Better
Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's
11 p.m. ET on ESPN
Randy Bennett is undoubtedly one of the best coaches in college basketball.
He's unsurprisingly at it again with the Gaels, who have been on fire since a pre-Christmas home loss to Utah State. They even had a stunning 30-0 run in their most recent victory over Santa Clara.
As a result, Saint Mary's now holds a two-game lead in the West Coast Conference over Gonzaga, which needs this win for any shot at getting back to its conference-winning ways after the Gaels ended its 11-year streak of at least sharing a piece of the regular season title in 2024.
But, is it time to sell Saint Mary's? I believe so.
We're likely at the peak of the market on the Gaels, who I believe still have some limitations offensively when they're not dominating the offensive glass, which they've done all season as well as anybody, ranking second in that category.
However, in this matchup, getting those second chance opportunities may prove more difficult against a Gonzaga squad that ranks 21st nationally in Defensive Rebounding Rate.
Saint Mary's defense will show up as it always does, and it does do a great job of limiting transition opportunities, which is critical against Gonzaga.
However, against top-65 foes this season, Saint Mary's offense ranks just 103rd in overall efficiency, per Torvik. And it's not like the Gaels have faced a group of defensive stalwarts in those contests against USC, Arizona State, Boise State, Santa Clara, Utah State and Nebraska.
Those teams have an average adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of 69th on the season. And if the season ended today, only one of those teams (Utah State) would make the NCAA Tournament.
This will be the Gaels' most challenging opponent of the season by a decent margin.
Gonzaga has had a much more demanding schedule but doesn't have a good record against top-65 foes either (3-5). But it's just failed to close out so many games with a 0-6 record in two-possession games, including 0-3 in overtime tilts against Kentucky, Oregon State, and West Virginia.
Is that a trend, or is Gonzaga due to win a close game? The truth is probably somewhere in between.
Ultimately, in a matchup of two teams that excel on the glass on both ends and don't foul/turn it over, this comes down to Gonzaga having the much more reliable offense and superior talent.
Lastly, I wouldn't be surprised if Gonzaga breaks out its press a bit more in this matchup to force Saint Mary's to get into its offensive sets later in the shot clock.
Pick: Gonzaga -1.5 or Better
