It's hard to believe, but this will be the last Saturday before March. Let's try to find some winners.
If you're new here, I share my favorite spots that I circled on each Saturday slate. In addition to my raw projections, I'll focus on matchups, situational spots, injuries, potential regression and other ancillary factors.
This week, I highlighted five spots I had targeted, starting off with a matchup of two ranked teams in the early slate.
For reference, I write these up on Friday evening. Since the market will move overnight, I'll always list the price at which I'd play each game. You can also follow along on the Action App to see when I place them.
- 2022-24: 62-51-1 (54.9%)
- 2025: 17-12-1 (58.6%)
- Overall: 79-63-2 (55.6%)
(My official recommendation is not a parlay, but if you want to parlay these spots, the option is below.)
Texas A&M +1.5 vs. Tennessee
Noon ET on ESPN
I think this is a prime opportunity to buy the Aggies after a lopsided loss at Mississippi State earlier this week.
Ultimately, I believe they can play their game against the Vols in an ugly half-court battle. Usually Tennessee has the edge when it comes to physicality, but that won't be the case in this particular matchup.
Texas A&M ultimately wants to win on the boards, which it should do against a Tennessee bunch that's a bit vulnerable on the defensive end in that department (120th nationally).
Plus, the Vols could be down one of their starting bigs in Felix Okpara (questionable), which would hurt on the glass and on the defensive end of the floor.
The Aggies also want to turn teams over with their aggressive defense and the Vols haven't been immune to coughing it up, especially in road SEC games, where they have a turnover rate north of 20%.
Additionally, Tennessee's defense isn't turning opponents over itself as frequently as it did last year (18.5% in 2024 to 16.5% in 2025 in league play), which should provide some relief to an Aggies squad that can get a bit loose with the rock.
The Vols also aren't getting to the line a ton (15th in SEC play), which is another area where you have to take advantage of Buzz Williams' aggressiveness.
In order to beat this Aggies defense, you need to take care of the ball and then find the open shooters, which there will be against Texas A&M (356th in 3-point attempt rate allowed).
However, I just don't trust this Vols offense to connect on those shots with any consistency, especially on the road, where they're shooting sub-30% in SEC play.
You could argue they're due to have a better shooting performance away from home, but the same can be said for Texas A&M, which has shot just 23.6% from beyond the arc in SEC home games.
Tennessee also isn't looking to get out in transition much, which is another area where Texas A&M struggles, ranking in the 45th percentile in efficiency (compared to 95th in the half-court), per Synergy.
And while Tennessee has an elite transition defense, Texas A&M isn't really looking to get out and run.
The Aggies would rather operate in the half-court and work in isolation (which is an avenue to attack Tennessee) in order to hunt trips to the line and crash the offensive glass off misses.
Give me big game Wade Taylor IV and the Aggies to get it done on the offensive glass at home in a battle of two elite half-court defenses.
Pick: Texas A&M +1.5 (Play to -1)
Notre Dame +2 vs. Pittsburgh
2:15 p.m. ET on The CW
This feels like the final nail in the coffin for Pitt's tourney hopes, which are basically on life support at the moment. The Panthers haven't played good basketball for going on two months now.
Since the start of 2024, Pitt ranks 103rd in the country, per Bart Torvik. Despite a 4-9 record, Notre Dame actually sits three spots higher at No. 100 over that same span.
Not only could I argue that the Irish have played better overall since the calendar flipped, they've also gotten healthier, while Pitt lost Damian Dunn for the season. That hurts on the defensive end, where Pitt ranks 168th in overall efficiency since Jan. 1.
From a matchup perspective, Pitt won't exploit Notre Dame's woeful 2-point defense. Since Jan. 1, both the Notre Dame defense and Pitt offense rank outside the top 300 in that category.
Meanwhile, the Irish should actually win the rebounding battle in this particular matchup and have the shooters to take advantage of Pitt's porous perimeter defense.
As long as the Irish don't get a terrible whistle at home and send Pitt to the line all afternoon (where it does thrive), I like Notre Dame to get the job done here at home.
If you're looking for additional metrics that paint how bleak it is for Pitt at the moment, it ranks 355th nationally in both Haslametrics' Momentum and away-from-home metrics.
I simply don't trust the Panthers on the road and expect a big effort from the Irish after they were absolutely embarrassed on their home court earlier this week against SMU.
Notre Dame can get bullied by many power conference teams, but that won't be the case in this particular matchup, where it'll also have the better coach for my money.
Pick: Notre Dame +2 (Play to +1.5)
Texas State -1 vs. South Alabama
5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+
South Alabama is a very unique opponent, primarily due to its defensive scheme. The undersized Jaguars press at a top-20 rate and play zone defense at the highest rate (91.3%) in the country, per Synergy.
Therefore, opponents can really benefit from getting to see them for a second time, especially over a short time span. That's exactly what happened in a pair of losses against Troy and Louisiana Monroe earlier this season.
That's exactly the scenario we have here with Texas State, which lost in overtime last Saturday in Mobile in a game it led by six with eight to go.
That familiarity should pay dividends on Saturday in regards to how to attack this unique defense, especially considering they do have one of the better 3-point shooting squads in the Sun Belt.
Additionally, the Bobcats should be closer to full strength than they were for that first meeting. Due to a few injuries they've had to deal with, I believe they're a bit undervalued overall.
While this could be a bit of a letdown for South Alabama following its road upset of Arkansas State, Texas State should come out with a fully focused effort with revenge on its mind. That's especially true considering every game down the stretch is massive in regards to seeding for the Sun Belt Tournament.
The Bobcats sit right in the middle of the pack, which means they're at risk of having to play seven games in seven days if they stumble down the stretch — a near impossible task.
From a matchup perspective, the Bobcats should dominate on the offensive glass when the outside shots aren't falling.
And hopefully, South Alabama, which hoists 3s at a top-30 rate nationally despite shooting only 31.6%, helps bring some overdue regression to the Bobcats, who have allowed a league full of poor shooting teams to connect on 38.3% of their 3-point attempts.
Head coach Terrence Johnson usually gets his teams to play their basketball at the end of the season, and I don't believe there's a ton separating these two clubs despite the Jaguars having four more league wins.
Texas State has just been less fortunate in close games. Look no further than its overtime records in Sun Belt play — the Bobcats have gone 1-2, while South Alabama has three overtime wins since the start of February.
The scheduling spot just puts this over the top for me. Give me the Bobs to get it done in San Marcos.
Pick: Texas State -1 (Play to -1.5)
Arkansas +1.5 vs. Missouri
8 p.m. ET on ESPN
This time of the year, bettors can get in trouble blindly betting bubble teams in must-win scenarios. For starters, there's a reason those teams are usually on the bubble — they tend to be pretty flawed teams.
Additionally, the market is also aware of these scenarios, so you often pay a premium to back those flawed teams in many cases against superior opponents.
However, there are exceptions, and I do believe Arkansas fits that mold. Yes, the Hogs have their warts, but they also aren't the same team they were earlier in the season, and I'm not sure the market has fully caught up yet.
We've seen this story play out many times in the past under John Calipari, who usually gets his teams to play their best basketball heading into March.
I believe that's true once again for this Arkansas squad, which has also undoubtedly played much better since losing Boogie Fland. While Fland has endless talent, he was also shooting just 27% from 2 and 3 during league play.
Since he went down, others have seemingly found their roles on offense and the defense, as a whole, has improved.
Look no further than the past six games. Over that stretch, Arkansas ranks 17th overall, per Bart Torvik, with the nation's fourth-most efficient defense.
While it's only gone 3-3 during that span, it's covered all six, picking up road wins at Texas and Kentucky with three very competitive losses against Alabama and on the road against another pair of top-15 teams in Texas A&M and Auburn.
In fairness, Missouri has also been incredible since the end of last month, ranking second overall, per Bart Torvik. Head coach Dennis Gates deserves serious consideration for Coach of the Year after orchestrating this incredible turnaround (the Tigers went 0-18 in league play last season).
However, we have to be at the peak of the market on this roster, especially after a monumental home victory over Alabama, which might induce a bit of a hangover in this spot.
Keep in mind: Arkansas was catching only 4.5 points at Missouri last month. While the Tigers have deservedly been bumped in the market, Arkansas has also warranted a bump.
In that dominating victory, Missouri benefitted from a slightly friendly home whistle and made six more 3s on the same number of attempts as Arkansas. Fland was also very inefficient, finishing 2-of-13 from the floor.
I expect a major bounce back performance from Zvonimir Ivisic, who has a favorable matchup after throwing up a donut against Auburn.
And look out for Billy Richmond III, who's now much more involved in the offense.
Pick: Arkansas +1.5 (Play to +1.5)
Illinois +9.5 vs. Duke
8 p.m. ET on Fox
I might look dumb here, but it won't be the first or last time.
Sadly, I bought low on the Illini, who have had everything possible go wrong in 2025 — from injuries to multiple illnesses to horrible shooting variance.
Is this the bottom of the market on the Illini, who were everybody's national title darkhorse just a few weeks ago? Maybe not, but I'm willing to take a shot that it is at this price tag and hope they're a bit healthier than they were earlier this week against Wisconsin.
Despite all of the personnel issues, Illinois still ranks as a top-20 team since the start of the year, per Torvik, even with horrid 3-point shooting over that 15-game stretch (29.2%).
Opponents have also cashed in on nearly 37% of their long distance attempts over that stretch, even though Illinois generally does a commendable job of limiting 3-point attempts.
Illinois does struggle a bit with pick-and-pop centers, but Duke doesn't really feature one of those. I actually think the Illini's base defense is the ideal scheme for trying to at least contain Duke.
Yes, Cooper Flagg will get his, but Illinois can match Duke from a shot volume perspective and still has a top-25 2-point offense and defense since the start of the new year. And maybe Duke cools off a bit from distance after shooting north of 40% since Jan. 1.
Duke's defense is undoubtedly elite at a national level, but it definitely takes a slight hit without Maliq Brown. The Blue Devils also don't force many turnovers, which has been an issue for Illinois at times, so hopefully Kasparas Jakucionis can limit the mind-numbing unforced mistakes.
It's also at least worth noting the disparity in the quality of both leagues. The Big Ten is good from top to bottom, while the ACC might only get three teams into the NCAA Tournament. As a result, Duke hasn't beaten a team I currently have in the field since it won at Louisville way back on Dec. 8.
Even without the injured Morez Johnson, Illinois still boasts one of the most talented rosters in the country that's fully capable of winning this game outright. I think the Illini have been pressing a bit, but they might be able to play much freer here at the Garden as the clear underdog with nothing to lose.
I'm banking on this being the very bottom of the market for a team that's dealt with as much adversity (and lack of practices) as anybody in the country over the past two months.
I think they keep it close.
Pick: Illinois +9.5 (Play to +9)
