The Super Bowl is on everyone's mind, but we have a full slate of college hoops before we worry about that.
Every Saturday during the season, I'll share my favorite spots that I circled (and that are still within range for a bet). In addition to my raw projection, I'll focus on matchups, situational spots, injuries, potential regression and other ancillary factors.
This week, I highlighted my five favorite spots I had targeted for Saturday's slate. Let's hope we can avoid any more shenanigans today after some tough overtime losses and that banked in 3 from the corner by Creighton last Saturday. I still can't believe that went in after the questionable timeout call.
For reference, I write these up on Friday evening. Since the market will move overnight, I'll always list the price at which I'd play each game. You can also follow along on the Action App to see when I place them.
- 2022-24: 62-51-1 (54.9%)
- 2025: 11-10 (52.4%)
- Overall: 73-61-1 (54.5%)
(My official recommendation is not a parlay, but if you want to parlay these spots, the option is below.)
Indiana +3 vs. Michigan
1 p.m. ET on CBS
This looks like a good buy-low spot on Indiana after the Hoosiers dropped four straight, including the past two on the road against the highest-rated teams in the Big Ten in Purdue and Wisconsin.
I actually liked Indiana's effort against the Boilermakers (it was in the game until the end), which is really what it comes down to with this team, since the Hoosiers look disinterested at times.
Fortunately, that really hasn't been the case in Bloomington, so I'd expect a maximum effort game here against the Wolverines in Dusty May's return to his alma mater. It makes sense that Indiana ranks 340th in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric.
Remember, in its most recent home game, Indiana was catching just 2.5 against a Maryland team I have power rated ahead of Michigan. The Hoosiers covered that spread in a game it arguably should've won.
And it's not like they've been completely hopeless, having exceeded oddsmakers expectations in two of the past three games.
Meanwhile, Michigan hasn't covered in six straight, as all the Wolverines seemingly do is play close games outside of their West Coast swing. Their past four league wins have all come by four or fewer points — against an undermanned Rutgers squad, Penn State, Northwestern (in overtime) and Oregon.
It's not like Michigan has been playing pristine of late, ranking last in momentum, per Haslametrics.
On top of those results, the Wolverines have six other games that have been decided by one possession on the season.
They're just too careless with the ball to ever really extend and maintain big leads.
From a matchup perspective, Michigan's passive defense won't exploit Indiana's turnover issues and the Hoosiers can live in the mid-range, where they operate too frequently.
But that approach should work in this particular matchup.
The Hoosiers can also clean up on the offensive glass for some potential easy buckets. They rank in the top 10 in quick points off offensive rebounds and will face a Michigan defense that ranks 150th in that department.
This could be a rare game where the Hoosiers don't lose the shot volume battle in a great situational spot.
Pick: Indiana +3
Kansas State +4.5 vs. Kansas
2 p.m. ET on ESPN
This handicap is pretty simple to me: Do you believe in the recent Kansas State surge? If not, you probably like Kansas at this number. If you do, like me, you probably like the home 'dog.
Dominating at Hilton against Iowa State is no fluke.
In this new age of college basketball, I think we'll see teams like Kansas State — that had a hard reset in the offseason — start to figure it out later in the season, as the market struggles to catch up from a ratings perspective.
To wit, since Kansas State got blown out by Houston, it ranks 11th overall, per Bart Torvik, while Kansas ranks 13th over that span, with both teams going 4-3.
From a matchup perspective, I do worry about the rebounding deficit for the Wildcats, but Kansas won't exploit their turnover issues.
Hunter Dickinson will likely get his, but I like how the Kansas State defense matches up in the half-court elsewhere, and it did do an admirable job of keeping the Jayhawks out of transition in the first meeting.
Also, from a regression standpoint, while the Kansas defense is outstanding, I do think it's been quite fortunate in regards to opponent 3-point shooting, specifically in league play, as Big 12 foes are shooting just 27.6% at a decent volume.
Per Synergy, Kansas ranks outside the top 100 in frequency of unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers allowed, which Kansas State generates on offense at the second-highest rate in the nation. Don't be surprised if the Wildcats have a day from the outside.
Lastly, we've seen this story play out so many times in this rivalry.
Prior to this season, against Kansas State, Kansas went 15-0 at home, with an average margin of victory of just under 17 points per game with only two of those matchups being decided by single digits.
However, the Jayhawks are just 9-6 in Manhattan, with an average margin of 1.6 points with four of those games going to overtime and 11 either resulting in a loss or a win by two or fewer possessions.
Kansas won in Lawrence by 10 earlier this season, but I though the Wildcats actually fared quite well after going down 20-4 prior to the second media timeout.
Part of me feels like I'm buying high on Kansas State after four straight wins, but that's negated a bit by Kansas coming off a dominating home win over Iowa State, in part due to the Clones not being able to throw the ball into the ocean.
Pick: Kansas State +4.5 (Play to +4)
Clemson +7.5 vs. Duke
6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
I do think this line is a bit high, which may be a result of Clemson losing at home to Georgia Tech in triple overtime earlier this week.
Therefore, I split my bet between the 'dog and under, which have some correlation in a great situational spot for an extremely experienced Clemson squad.
When you consider both defenses rank in the top-five in longest average possession length, per KenPom, this game profiles as an absolute half-court grinder with super long possessions.
Neither allows anything in transition, as well. Clemson is actually the only team in the country that's allowed a sub-10% transition frequency, while Duke isn't too far behind at 11.4%, per Synergy.
I also like the structure of Clemson's defense in this particular matchup against Cooper Flagg and company.
Meanwhile, the Tigers may not have their jumper legs for the entire game after logging all of those minutes against Georgia Tech. It also may cause them to play even slower — if that's even possible, as they already rank 343rd in adjusted tempo and have been playing slower in general of late.
Plus, I believe Duke's defense has actually been a bit unlucky in terms of 3-point shooting in ACC play.
Additionally, Maliq Brown has since returned to the Blue Devils' lineup after missing five games, and the Duke defense goes to another level with him in the rotation.
Per Evan Miya, Brown ranks second on the team in DBPR (behind only Flagg), but also eighth out of nine main rotation players in OBPR. His presence helps the under in multiple ways.
Lastly, neither team fouls much, which is always a welcome bonus with a total this low.
Hopefully, we can just dodge hot outside shooting.
Pick: Clemson +7.5 (Play to +7) | Under 133.5
Loyola Marymount +4 vs. San Francisco
9 p.m. ET on ESPN+
This looks like a great spot to sell high on San Francisco after the Dons' monumental home win over Saint Mary's. I had the Dons in that game and felt a bit fortunate, as the Gaels simply couldn't throw the ball into the ocean despite an abundance of open looks.
Saint Mary's finished that game just 3-of-23 from deep, which has been an ongoing trend for the Dons, who have held league foes to 24.7% shooting from the perimeter, including 16% over the past six games.
I can't see how that lasts, especially when you consider they rank 10th in 2-point defense during WCC play.
Additionally, nobody has even been able to make a free throw against the Dons in conference play.
Earlier this season, San Francisco beat Loyola by 15 at home, in part due to the Lions shooting 3-of-19 from distance (15.8%).
The Dons getting that result at home shouldn't really shock anybody at this point, though, as they've been a completely different animal at War Memorial.
Just take a look at the discrepancy in some of these results:
- Saint Mary's: lost by 20 on road, won by one at home
- Santa Clara: lost by 23 on road, won by three at home
- Washington State: lost by nine on road, won by 24 at home
Does that trend continue tonight? I believe so, assuming the Lions can hit at any reasonable clip from beyond the arc.
After all, this is a San Francisco squad that has only two road wins this year against Pepperdine and lowly Pacific. Per Bart Torvik, both of these teams rank about 30 spots higher at home compared to games on the road or at neutral sites.
Loyola had been playing better during a five-game winning streak before running into Gonzaga in Spokane in a terrible situational spot. Despite facing an angry Gonzaga squad, I thought the Lions fared quite well and actually held a second-half lead before falling apart late.
From a matchup perspective, Jevon Porter should dominate against a weak San Francisco interior, and the Dons won't fully exploit Loyola's rebounding woes.
Pick: Loyola Marymount +4 (Play to +3.5)
UC San Diego PK at UC Irvine
10 p.m. ET on ESPNU
I think the Tritons get their revenge in Irvine after losing on their home court earlier this season in a game they shot just 6-of-35 from 3.
That'll be the key again tonight from a Tritons offense that'll bomb away from deep, which is exactly how you have to attack a Russell Turner defense that always ranks among the national leaders in 2-point defense thanks to their trees at the rim.
The Eaters also usually excel when it comes to defending the perimeter, but I think they've benefited from a bit of good fortune in that department during league play, as opponents have made just 29.2% of their attempts.
Since January 1, UCI has also made just under 38% of its own 3-point attempts. Even with that perimeter success, it ranks 200th in overall adjusted offensive efficiency over that span (and 73rd overall).
Meanwhile, UC San Diego ranks 70th and 47th, respectively, despite one more loss than the Eaters.
It isn't an ideal scheduling spot, since the Tritons must hit the road after playing on Thursday while the Eaters have had a full week off prior to this huge showdown. But I've had this spot circled since that first meeting, and I'm going with it.
Hopefully, the Tritons change up their defense a bit on German big man Bent Leuchten, who went for 23 and 13 in the first meeting. He's definitely a matchup problem, but hopefully the Tritons can trade 3s for 2s this time around.
In the first meeting, they missed 85% of their whopping 35 attempts in a game they led with 10 minutes to go before making only one shot the rest of the way.
I think UC San Diego is the class of the league and it'll show it here.
Pick: UC San Diego PK
