It's hard to believe, but this is the first Saturday of March, so let's try to find some winners.
If you're new here, I share my favorite spots that I circled on each Saturday slate. In addition to my raw projections, I'll focus on matchups, situational spots, injuries, potential regression and other ancillary factors.
This week, I highlighted six spots I had targeted, starting off with a matchup between two ranked teams in the early slate.
I'll also finish up by going through scenarios for all 10 conferences that finish up regular season play this weekend.
For reference, I write these up on Friday evening. Since the market will move overnight, I'll always list the price at which I'd play each game. You can also follow along on the Action App to see when I place them.
- 2022-24: 62-51-1 (54.9%)
- 2025: 19-14-2 (57.6%)
- Overall: 81-65-3 (55.5%)
(A parlay isn't my official recommendation, but there's an option below if you so choose to approach these spots that way.)
South Carolina -1 vs. Arkansas
1 p.m. ET on SEC Network
I'm fading the shorthanded Hogs, who should once again be without Adou Thiero. I believe he's their most important overall player.
Additionally, Zvonimir Ivisic was dealing with some back spasms at the end of the overtime victory over Texas a few nights ago.
With Boogie Fland already out for the season, Arkansas' recent lack of depth could be tested in Columbia, especially if the Hogs get in foul trouble against a South Carolina squad that lives at the charity stripe.
This South Carolina team has many warts, but it's been feisty at home all season. In the non-conference, the Gamecocks beat Clemson and could easily have three or four wins against NCAA Tournament teams in SEC play.
Just take a look at their league results in their own building against seven teams I have all ranked higher than Arkansas:
- L by 20 to Alabama
- L by 3 to Auburn
- L by 1 to Florida
- L by 5 to Mississippi State in OT
- L by 4 to Texas A&M
- L by 4 to Ole Miss
- W by 14 vs. Texas
To wit, since Jan. 1, per Bart Torvik, South Carolina ranks 49th at home compared to 187th on the road. That's a gigantic gap.
As long as it can avoid too many turnovers (which has been a major problem), Arkansas will likely have trouble finding consistent offense in the half-court. The Gamecocks will force the Hogs to work in isolation, where they rank in just the ninth percentile.
Ultimately, South Carolina should win the battle of the boards and can find success working in the low block through Collin Murray-Boyles. South Carolina has a very post-centric offense, which could pose problems for an Arkansas defense that ranks in the 34th percentile in post-up efficiency, per Synergy.
Additionally, there's some looming 3-point regression that could work in South Carolina's favor. Since Feb. 1, Arkansas has made 37.6% of its 3-point attempts, while holding opponents to just 30.0%. Over that same stretch, South Carolina has made just 28.1% and has allowed a shockingly high rate of 46.1%.
While the Gamecocks aren't a great shooting team by any stretch and don't have a great perimeter defense, those splits are certainly extreme. Don't be surprised if the 3-pointer works in their favor today.
All of the pressure is on Arkansas — which needs this win — but I think it's time to sell-high on the shorthanded Razorbacks.
Pick: South Carolina -1
Ohio -5 vs. Miami (OH)
1 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Fresh off a very bad loss, I'm buying low on the Bobcats to exact some home revenge over the RedHawks in a matchup between two teams who have been drastically better in their own buildings.
On the season, they've combined to go 26-3 at home vs. just 11-16 on the highway. Per Bart Torvik, Ohio ranks 103rd at home compared to 225th in away and neutral site games, while Miami (OH) ranks 136th and 199th, respectively.
Further, Ohio shoots 39% from 3 at home compared to 31% on the road, while Miami (OH)'s delta is even wider at 42% vs. 32%.
Over the past five weeks, Miami (OH) has gone 6-0 at home compared to 1-3 on the road, with a trio of losses by eight or more points, including a pair against lowly Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan.
Over that 10-game stretch, Miami (OH) has graded out as the better overall team, despite not being fully healthy for all 10. Miami (OH) is shooting nearly 40% from deep.
In the first meeting between the two, Ohio was right there at the end, despite playing without AJ Clayton (its best overall player), who's since returned to the lineup. He should make a major difference this time around.
From a matchup perspective, Ohio wants to run (99th percentile transition frequency, per Synergy), which should cause trouble for the RedHawks. They have a very poor transition defense, ranking in the 79th percentile in frequency and 29th in efficiency.
I also just don't trust this Miami defense, especially away from Oxford, when not forcing turnovers, which will be hard to do against a Bobcats offense that rarely coughs it up.
On the other end of the floor, Miami (OH) is a jump-shooting offense, but Ohio does an adequate job of taking away perimeter shots. The Bobcats rank 21st nationally in 3-point attempt rate allowed.
Ohio can play its game in this matchup and I think the home trend for both teams continues this afternoon.
Pick: Ohio -5 (Play to -5.5)
Cincinnati +14.5 at Houston
4:30 p.m. ET on CBS
I'm going back to the well with the Bearcats, who have found something offensively over a recent seven-game stretch. Cincinnati ranks 14th, per Bart Torvik, over that period of time.
The Bobcats also saw the return of Simas Lukosius from injury in their most recent contest. His shooting prowess could help provide a boost in this particular matchup.
The Bearcats also have multiple ball handlers and don't really turn it over much, which is paramount against the Coogs, who will likely lose the turnover battle in this one.
This also looks like a decent spot to fade Houston, which could come out a bit flat after two enormous wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech, with a home date vs. Kansas looming on Monday.
The Cougars are one of the best teams in the country, but they also might be a bit overrated at this moment. They've played a number of shorthanded teams during league play, including their last two wins against the Cyclones and Red Raiders (both were down a pair of starters).
I'm admittedly a bit worried about Houston going bananas on the offensive glass, but I think this is a bit too many points in a game that should be played completely in the half-court (neither defense allows anything in transition). Points will come at a premium for both teams.
And while Houston is an elite 3-point offense (it's connected on over 42.7% of its 3-point attempts over the past month), a bit of regression on that front wouldn't hurt against Cincy's drop defense that does a tremendous job of limiting 3-point attempts (and also had some bad luck in that area).
This is a Houston offense that surprisingly ranks 253rd nationally in 2-point percentage.
Pick: Cincinnati +14.5 (Play to +14)
Xavier -1.5 vs. Creighton
4:30 p.m. ET on FOX
Despite some matchup concerns, I'm going with my gut here in a pretty good situational spot.
Yes, the Musketeers need this game for their NCAA Tournament chances, but that's an angle that can get overplayed this time of the year.
However, Xavier does have a few other factors working in its favor. The Musketeers have revenge on their minds from a loss earlier this season in a game that was super tight before Creighton made four straight 3s to pull away late.
I bring that up because head coach Sean Miller has been very strong with same-season revenge during his tenure at Xavier, including this year (he's 3-1 with wins against Marquette, Georgetown and UConn in the second meeting).
The one loss came on the road against St. John's in overtime in a game the Muskies arguably should've won.
Xavier will also enjoy rest and preparation for this game, having last played on Sunday. Meanwhile, Creighton had a mid-week affair with DePaul. I believe that holds more value this late in the season, especially against a Creighton team that relies so heavily on two players in particular.
The matchup concerns I mentioned before primarily center around Ryan Kalkbrenner, who should feast against Xavier's weak interior defense that ranks outside the top 300 in 2-point percentage defense since Jan. 1.
Kalkbrenner will undoubtedly get his, but Xavier just has to contain the other Jays.
Creighton also doesn't foul at all, which eliminates one of the primary means of offense for Xavier.
The Musketeers might not find as many opportunities in transition against the Jays, who excel in that department defensively. However, they should win the turnover battle and do have the guards that can beat the KalkDrop defense — in addition to some bigs who can pull Kalkbrener away from the rim.
Xavier also shoots lights out at home from 3 (39.9%), while Creighton has connected on just 30.8% of its attempts away from Omaha (it ranks 314th in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric).
That could make all of the difference in a game in which neither team will likely get many second chance opportunities.
Xavier has come so close in so many marquee matchups this season, but it's come up on the short end of the stick more times than not.
I think the Muskies close the deal at Cintas Center today.
Pick: Xavier ML or -1.5 (Play to -2.5)
Wyoming +7.5 vs. San Diego State
8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network
This is my favorite buy-low/sell-high spot of the day, as Wyoming is coming home to Laramie after back-to-back losses while San Diego State will hit the road at altitude after picking up a huge win over first-place New Mexico.
Outside of that victory, I haven't really been overly impressed with the Aztecs since the calendar flipped. Over that span, they rank just 58th, per Bart Torvik, and now must make do without their best rim protector, Magoon Gwath, who had 14 points, 11 rebounds and four blocks in the first meeting between these two clubs.
Wyoming only lost by two at Viejas Arena in a game the Pokes led by nine with a little over six minutes remaining despite only shooting 30% from 3.
I also don't mind the matchup for Wyoming. Even without Gwath, you're not going to get anything in transition or at the rim against San Diego State.
Well, the Cowboys don't have an offense that looks to run (first percentile in transition frequency) and they're far from rim-reliant on that end of the floor. In order to score on the Aztecs, you need to hit outside jumpers, as they rank 345th in 3-point attempt rate allowed.
Well, Wyoming certainly has a number of capable snipers for a team that ranks second in the league in 3-point percentage during league play.
San Diego State has also struggled a bit to defend pick-and-roll sets, which could be problematic against Wyoming, which has one of the highest pick-and-roll usage rates in the country.
Wyoming should also be able to limit San Diego State on the offensive glass, which is critical against an offense that can certainly go through extended scoring droughts.
Look for the Pokes to hit enough outside shots to keep this competitive in a game that should be super slow-paced with points coming at a premium.
Hopefully, they can just avoid turning it over incessantly, which is my primary concern.
Pick: Wyoming +7.5 (Play to +7)
Texas -5 vs. Georgia
8 p.m. ET on ESPN2
I had this spot circled for Texas, which has dropped five of six and sits squarely on the bubble. The Horns now return home against a Georgia team that might be a bit hungover after hanging on for dear life to upset Florida.
Additionally, I simply don't trust this Georgia offense when not in Athens. Per Bart Torvik, the Dawgs rank 30th overall in adjusted offensive efficiency in home games. That ranking drops all the way to 122nd away from home, which is a drastic delta.
Not only can Georgia not hit an outside shot away from the friendly confines (26.6% from 3), but it also can't take care of the basketball, ranking 358th nationally in turnover rate in those games.
As a result, it's no surprise that Georgia ranks 359th in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric.
I'm not sure how Georgia will get any form of consistent offense against a Texas defense that ranks third in the country in Near Proximity Percentage. Georgia wants to score at the rim or in transition, but neither are very viable paths in this particular matchup.
The Longhorns' defense also forces opponents to work in isolation, but Georgia has been dreadful in that department, ranking in the 13th percentile, per Synergy.
On the other end of the floor, Texas will have the best player on the floor in Tre Johnson, who should get enough buckets to pull out a much-needed home win against the road-averse Dawgs.
While Georgia has an elite half-court defense that does travel, it's been a bit vulnerable in transition, which Texas can fully exploit, especially off of all of Georgia's giveaways.
On the season, the Horns rank in the 99th percentile in transition efficiency, per Synergy. They're also shooting a robust 38.2% from deep in Austin.
With all of that said, I was hoping for a bit better of a number. Therefore, I'd look to potentially use Texas as a moneyline parlay piece or wait for a better number live against a Georgia team that's been drastically better in the first halves of games this season.
Pick: Texas ML Parlay Piece
10 conferences will finish up play on either Saturday or Sunday this weekend.
Here are the scenarios to be aware of for your reference:
Big South
Seeds locked in: High Point (1), UNC Asheville (2), Winthrop (3), Radford (4) and USC Upstate (9). That leaves the 5-8 seeds up for grabs between Longwood, Presbyterian, Charleston Southern and Gardner-Webb. Whichever team finishes with the eight-seed will have to play an extra game in the tournament.
