The NCAA tournament is quickly approaching and an ever-growing bubble has continued to expand.
It feels like this season, above all, there are more questions than answers when it comes to what teams are safely in the field and what teams need to fight for their lives during Champ Week.
Indiana State’s loss to Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference final gives the committee another difficult question: Steph Blurry and the Sycamores, or a power-conference team with a shaky resume?
Let’s take a look at college basketball odds and picks, including how to bet NCAA tournament bubble teams during Champ Week.
St. John's Red Storm
Bracketology: Last Four In
Nearly a month ago, St. John’s suffered a monumental collapse at the hands of Seton Hall. Rick Pitino criticized his team for a lack of athleticism and defense, as the Red Storm seemingly found themselves on the outside looking in at the NCAA tournament.
Since then, the Johnnies have won five straight, picking up a double-digit win over Creighton in the process. The committee will have its hands full trying to handpick from the growing number of teams on the bubble, making Thursday night as must-win as it gets for the Johnnies.
St. John’s was swept by Seton Hall in the regular season after that 19-point implosion, but the game was at UBS Arena and not Madison Square Garden. This should be a pro-Johnnies crowd on a court they’re all the more familiar with.
KenPom currently projects this SJU -4 and given the motivation, I will be hopping aboard the Pitino train in March.
Since Feb. 1, St. John’s has ranked inside the top 25, per Bart Torvik. Seton Hall is down in the mid-50s.
What’s been a huge key to SJU’s success has been the emergence of Jordan Dingle. It took a while, but the Penn transfer has begun to play much better.
With RJ Luis Jr.’ scoring and Zuby Ejiofor’s energy off the bench, St. John’s is finding its groove. A win against Seton Hall likely secures an at-large bid to the tournament, so it’s a huge motivation spot.
Pick: St. John's -4 (Play to -5)
Colorado Buffaloes
Bracketology: Last Four In
When fully healthy, I'm a big believer in the talent of this Colorado team. Cody Williams should return after missing the final four games of the season, and his presence alone should provide a significant boost on both ends of the floor for the Buffs.
The way I would attack this bubble team is taking a future on Colorado to win the Pac-12 (+550). The Buffs get to avoid Arizona's side of the bracket and should be able to take down Utah and Washington State, if chalk holds.
Colorado enters the Pac-12 tournament with six straight wins and is the 14th-best team in the country since that streak started.
All of that has been done without both Williams and Julian Hammond III.
Offensively, Colorado ranks inside the top 25 in Adjusted Efficiency and is a downhill-attacking squad.
KJ Simpson is the primary ball handler of an offense that ranks fifth in the country in 3-point percentage and ranks inside the top three during Pac-12 play in free-throw rate, offensive rebounding rate and effective field goal percentage.
This is a balanced offense, with five separate players scoring in double figures. The Buffs rank inside the top 15 in average height, and behind the energized Eddie Lampkin Jr., they create second-chance opportunities on nearly a third of their attempts.
Assuming Williams is able to return to the lineup, Colorado projects as a better team than Washington State. The Buffs are also playing with added motivation, making them my favorite Pac-12 tournament future.
You can back them game-by-game depending on the spread, but I’d rather take out a future on Colorado and hope that Arizona gets caught sleeping in the process on the other side.
Pick: Colorado to Win Pac-12 Tournament (+525 @ Caesars)
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New Mexico Lobos
Bracketology: First Four Out
In the last month, New Mexico has been among the most disappointing teams. After ripping off five straight wins in January — including victories over San Diego State, Utah State and Nevada — it seemed as though the Lobos would cruise to an at-large bid.
But a home loss to Air Force, a season sweep at the hands of UNLV and an inability to secure key road wins at Boise State or Utah State has pushed Richard Pitino’s squad firmly on the outside looking in.
UNM gets a chance to avenge that loss to Air Force on Wednesday in the first round of the Mountain West tournament, but it’s the Thursday night matchup that I have circled — assuming the Lobos can win as 15-point favorites.
New Mexico was swept in its season series with Boise State. Max Rice shot 7-of-14 from 3 in the first meeting before the Broncos racked up 1.24 PPP and 17 offensive rebounds in the second meeting in Boise.
In what should be a coin-flip matchup on a neutral floor, I side with the highly-motivated Lobos here. This is a top-50 team in terms of Division I experience that's on the outside looking in with a chance for a key win against one of the MWC’s best.
If UNM takes home that matchup, I would also look to bet the Lobos against Nevada — a team they swept in the regular season — or Colorado State.
This run-and-gun offense can rack up points in a hurry and the backcourt rotation of Donovan Dent, Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. is among the most talented in college basketball.
The key here is UNM’s ability to clean up on the glass, and for Nelly Junior Joseph and JT Toppin to avoid foul trouble.
Without those two big men, the Lobos can be exploited around the rim, and when it comes to limiting second-chance opportunities. But when this rotation remains on the floor — with a revolving door of highly-talented playmakers at the point — UNM is as good as any team in the Mountain West.
This is a great spot to back a New Mexico team that's officially pushed the panic button. Boise got its emotional win on the road in overtime against SDSU and has a week in between games.
This is definitely a spot the Broncos could be caught sleeping, especially with an at-large bid secured.
Pick: New Mexico to -2.5 vs. Boise State
Other Bubble Teams to Consider Backing
Michigan State & Mississippi State
Michigan State and Mississippi State find themselves inside the bubble, but they have must-win games to begin conference tournament play.
MSU draws Minnesota and is projected as six-point favorites, per KenPom. Lose and it’s hard to make the case for the Spartans to get in if other teams on the bubble around them rip off a couple of wins.
As for the Bulldogs, a similar situation arises. They've lost four straight to end the year and a team like conference-rival Texas A&M can hop them with wins over both Ole Miss and Kentucky.
That makes Thursday against LSU all the more important. Mississippi State blew out the Tigers earlier this season, as Jalen Cook has been sidelined due to a team-issued suspension.
I would consider backing Mississippi State — likely a two-team moneyline parlay with Sparty — come Thursday.
It’s hard to leave both those teams out if they pick up the conference-opening win.
Wake Forest & Iowa
Perhaps the two best bubble matchups to keep an eye out for are Ohio State vs. Iowa in the Big Ten and Wake Forest vs. Pittsburgh in the ACC. All four of those teams have generated bubble considerations, with the Demon Deacons currently ahead of the pack.
A three-game losing streak to Notre Dame, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech has put Wake on the outside looking in. The Deacs do get a chance at revenge vs. Notre Dame in the second round, before a date with bubble-foe Pittsburgh in the quarterfinals.
Assuming the spread is 3-to-4 points, I would look to back the Deacs, who did end their season with a big home win against Clemson.
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Let’s talk about OSU and Iowa. This is perhaps the most entertaining game from a win-or-go-home perspective.
This game is projected as a one-point win in favor of the red-hot Buckeyes, who have won five of their last six, including home wins against Purdue and Nebraska, and a road win at Michigan State.
The Hawkeyes, on the other hand, had a chance to secure a potential at-large bid with a win against Illinois, but they were unable to do so (12-point loss to end the season).
Earlier this season, Iowa took down OSU at home (79-77), but that was when Chris Holtmann still coached the Buckeyes. This is a completely different team now.
I lean Iowa here, though it might be a stay away from me. I’m more enamored by the implications than anything.
Providence & Villanova
Lastly, in the Big East, both Villanova and Providence need multiple tournament wins to secure an at-large bid. Both teams have really easy first-round matchups, as Nova draws DePaul and Providence gets Georgetown.
The second-round matchups are where the fun begins.
Providence would square off with Creighton, a team it split the season series with — though the rematch did go to overtime. The Jays are as well-oiled of a machine as any right now, though, winning seven of their last eight.
Meanwhile, Villanova squares off with Marquette for the third time, looking to avenge a pair of early-season losses. Nova has been playing much better of late and is one of the most variance-heavy teams you can think of.
The Cats shoot nearly half of their field goals from 3 and allow 45% of opponents’ shots to come from the perimeter as well.
Tyler Kolek has missed the Golden Eagles’ last three games, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Shaka Smart sit his star point guard in what's a pretty meaningless tournament game — Kansas is doing the same with both Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr.
Villanova needs at least two wins for its tournament hopes to stay alive. I'm more optimistic the Cats can string together a run than Providence.
