Purdue vs. NC State Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15 +100 | 143.5 -120o / +100u | -1025 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15 -120 | 143.5 -120o / +100u | +680 |
I've got to admit — this industry can be brutal.
Earlier this week, I was asked to pair with the very talented Mike Calabrese to start a weekly futures piece for national and conference title futures. My first write-up was about Purdue and how it would roll in the Big Ten and we would not see a better number.
Well, two days later, that blew up in my face after a loss to Rutgers. Thanks, Purdue.
While the number has relatively stayed the same, Purdue did show some chinks in the armor. NC State got some much-needed footage, and now it's up to it to execute if it wants to secure the big upset.
Will we see lightning strike twice? Or will a pissed-off Purdue team roll over the Wolfpack?
Let's find out.
Purdue Boilermakers
Don't let the embarrassing last-second loss to Rutgers fool you, this is still one of the best teams in college basketball. If anything, that game showed how hard it is to win on the road, especially at the RAC.
This is still one of the deepest units in all of college basketball with 10 players playing 15 minutes or more any given game, including star Trevion Williams coming off the bench.
Ranked first in AdjO, per KenPom, Purdue can attack from every angle with talent at both guard and forward positions.
Jaden Ivey is arguably one of the best players this season, leading the Boilermaker offense. Averaging 15.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game, he will once again be the main focal point as NC State is very guard-dependent.
What makes Purdue scary is the previously mentioned depth. NC State relies heavily on its guards, yet it lacks a true big man. This will open the pain for center Zach Edey, who is the size of a brick house.
Listed at 7-foot-4 and nearly 300 pounds, his game has been getting more polished the more he has been playing. Edey currently averages 15.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game. He will look to add more to his plate this time out as he will be a mismatch, as he usually is, for the small wolf pack.
Back-to-back away games are never easy, but the depth will take some much-needed pressure off of them. Purdue is normally average in terms of tempo, a metric we may see take a dip as Ivey will slow the game down and feed the bigs more often this time out.
NC State Wolfpack
In true Wolfpack fashion out in the wild, NC State has a chance to pounce on some wounded prey.
Now, I'm no zoologist to back my last statement up, but I am decent at identifying situational spots. It's never easy playing back-to-back away games, and that is exactly what Purdue is going through with another away game on deck after this.
While NC State does not have the size to contain big men Edey and Trevion, their guard production will be more important than ever so far this season.
Luckily for NC State, this is a very guard-heavy team. It has five players averaging double figures in scoring, four of them playing the guard position.
Stud guard Dereon Seabron leads the Wolfpack in scoring, averaging a double-double with 19.9 points and 11 rebounds per game.
Possessions will be at a premium for the Wolfpack, as this is one of the slower units in basketball with a tempo of 231st in the nation. With a lack of size, it will be up to the guards to generate extra possessions and limit Purdue's offensive production by securing the rebound.
If NC State can slow down the Purdue bigs and limit its second chances by crashing the boards with its guards for much-needed help, we may see Purdue in trouble for the second game in a row.
Purdue vs. NC State Betting Pick
As much as I expect Purdue to come in pissed off and take the Rutgers loss out on the Wolfpack, I just can't help but shake off the fact that it may mail this one in while in the midst of an away stretch.
It's not easy to win away from home, and I expect this to be uncomfortably close for the Boilermakers.
While NC State is severely undersized, it has one shining glimmer of hope that can swing this game in its favor for our betting purposes, and that is its guard play.
NC State will look to drain the clock with a slow tempo and limit Purdue's possessions by crashing the boards. Its guards are very disciplined with one of the deeper guard units in basketball and will crash the boards to help out the undersized big men.
Limiting Purdue's possessions is beneficial for our spread, as Edey and Williams may score every time they touch the ball down low. If NC State can capitalize on any misses or generate any havoc, it will find itself within the number.
I will put my money and faith in the Wolfpack turning this game into their style of play and for the guard production to be enough to cover.
Pick: NC State +15
