Seton Hall vs. Michigan Odds
| Seton Hall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 137 -110o / -110u | +330 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 137 -110o / -110u | -445 |
The second night of the Gavitt Tipoff Games is perhaps better than the first. To that point, this is my favorite game of the whole week.
Seton Hall has seen a slight dip in expectations with star forward Sandro Mamukelashvili gone, but the Pirates have enough leadership to make a Big East run.
Meanwhile, Juwan Howard has reloaded following Michigan's Big Ten regular-season title and he's ready to defend his AP National Coach of the Year award.
Given their No. 4 ranking in the AP Poll, Michigan is laying almost 10 points in this matchup.
However, do the Wolverines have the juice to cover the number?
Seton Hall Will Pose Problems
Although it's a small sample size and a weak schedule, the Pirates are playing some good basketball.
They've won and covered in both their games, dominating in both performances. They beat Yale by 36 and Fairleigh Dickinson by 44. The Pirates allowed a 28.2 eFG% in the two games, which is easily first in the nation.
However, there's regression coming for the Pirates.
In their games against Seton Hall, Fairleigh Dickinson shot 1-for-15 from deep while Yale shot 4-for-30. Fairleigh Dickinson shot 37.5% from beyond the arc last season while Yale shot 36.9% in its most recent season.
Kevin Willard's team is fairly long and generally plays above-average defense, but this "defense" is unsustainable. Last season, the Pirates were 306th in 3P% defense, so more shots will drop for their opponents.
Anyway, this shouldn't take away from who the Pirates are. They're a talented team that returns three starters and 60% of their minutes from last season. While Mamukelashvili powered the offense last year, look for others to step up in his place.
Myles Cale is in his fifth year at Seton Hall and is the best defender and 3-point shooter on the team. He's already scored in double-digits in both games this season.
My favorite piece on this roster is Harvard transfer Bryce Aiken. Aiken struggled with injuries last season but will be a scoring force off the bench. He scored 1,000 points in a Crimson uniform and was named to the First Team All-Ivy League as a guard.
Michigan Strong on Both Ends of the Court
Michigan is currently the only team in the nation that's top five in both KenPom Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.
Of course, it's very early. But this is what Howard's Wolverines do — they combine a great offense with a great defense.
Michigan's personnel is to thank for that.
DeVante' Jones has seemingly stepped into Mike Smith's role perfectly. He was a high-volume scorer at Coastal Carolina, but he'll be asked to run Howard's ball-screen offense in Ann Arbor.
The early returns have been impressive, as he's already dished out 10 assists to just two turnovers through two games.
Meanwhile, Hunter Dickinson has, once again, proven to be an imposing interior force. He's averaging 18 points and eight rebounds while shooting 90% at the rim, per Hoop-Math.
Plus, Caleb Houstan has been great in his first college season. He's averaging 12 points and 4.5 rebounds per game, as he has scored with efficiency and provided solid defense with his 6-foot-8 frame. He's stepped into the Isaiah Livers role well so far.
Plus, super-senior Eli Brooks has already dropped 26 points while making four of his seven 3-point attempts.
All-in-all, this version of the Wolverines seems to have the ability to replicate what they did last year. Time will tell if that rings true.
Seton Hall vs. Michigan Betting Pick
While I am a die-hard Wolverine fan, I am resisting the urge to lay the points because the Pirates can keep this game within the number for three reasons:
First, the Pirates have the experience. Seton Hall's 2.36 average years of experience ranks 63rd in the country, while Michigan's 1.55 ranks 261st.
Michigan is a very talented group, but replacing three starters is no easy task and it's due for a letdown game against the most talented team it has faced yet.
Second, the Pirates have the coaching. Willard's Pirates haven't had a losing season since 2013 and it's dangerous to give him points away from home. In his head coaching career with Seton Hall and Iona, Willard is 68-50-1 as a road dog.
Finally, the Pirates have the length. Dickinson is going to want to beat up on the Pirates on the interior, but the 7-foot-2, 265-pound senior Ike Obiagu will be in his way.
Obiagu allowed just .706 points per possession in post-up situations last season. If he can keep Dickinson from going off, it'll be hard for Michigan to get past the number.
If I'm catching eight points with Willard and Obiagu, I'll be betting them.
Pick: Seton Hall +8.5 (Play to +8)
