Stanford vs. Texas Odds
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 133.5 -110o / -110u | +470 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 133.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
The Stanford Cardinal travel to Dallas, Texas on Sunday to take on the Texas Longhorns in what will be Stanford's second game in a 41-hour span.
After taking 12 days off for finals, Stanford was back in action Friday night, taking down Green Bay at home 85-40. This was an important bounce-back spot for a Stanford team that lost its previous four games.
The Cardinal must now travel to Dallas for a 10 a.m. PT tip with the No. 7 Longhorns. Texas is a big step up in class from Green Bay, which is ranked 357th by Kenpom.
Texas has had a chaotic week of its own, taking down Rice in overtime 87-81 on Monday. The Longhorns were down double digits as a 24-point favorite well into the first half in what was the first game following the suspension of head coach Chris Beard.
Sunday's matchup with Stanford presents a great opportunity for two teams looking to find consistency heading into conference play.
Find a pick and full betting guide for Stanford against Texas below.
Stanford Cardinal
Jerod Haase's seventh season as Stanford's head coach has been a roller coaster. The Cardinal currently sit at 4-6 with one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country.
Stanford has a strength of schedule of 105.1 (52nd nationally). Unfortunately for the Cardinal, they have failed to capitalize on these opportunities, losing all six games against teams within the Kenpom top 60.
Through 10 games, Stanford has failed to beat a team inside the top 130 with their best win coming against No. 138 Florida State in the ESPN Events Invitational.
In order for the Cardinal to build momentum going into Pac-12 play, they must improve on the offensive end. This isn't a new problem for the Cardinal. In Haase's seven seasons, his Stanford teams have never finished in the top 110 in Kenpom's Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rating.
The Cardinal only have one player averaging double figures, senior wing Spencer Jones (11.7 PPG).
2 high IQ plays by Spencer Jones today for Stanford:
Intelligent and timely cut, and a rebound of his own miss that led to an assist pic.twitter.com/tCf0uPhW2D— Mavs/Magic Draft (@MavsDraft) November 21, 2021
This lack of balance on the offensive end has resulted in Stanford being ranked 197th in Effective FG% at just 49.5%.
Much of this ineffectiveness has come due to their inability to stretch the floor with the outside shot through 10 games this season.
The Cardinal have shot just 29.1% from outside (323rd nationally) despite 43.3% of their total field goal attempts coming from beyond the 3-point line (53rd nationally).
Settling for the outside shot will be a bad recipe against a Texas team that has only allowed their opponents to score 28.3% of their points from deep. This is a result of Texas being 23rd nationally in defending the 3-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 27.6% on 3s.
Additionally, Stanford has been its own worst enemy on offense, turning the ball over at a 21.2% rate (292nd nationally).
Texas is one of the best teams in the country at creating pressure and, ultimately, turnovers. The Longhorns force the 10th-highest Turnover Rate in the country at 25.5%.
If Stanford doesn't take care of the basketball and settles for 3s, it could be a long flight back to the Bay Area.
Texas Longhorns
In the wake of Beard's suspension, Texas named assistant Rodney Terry as interim head coach.
Terry has coaching experience as he spent 2018-2021 as the head coach of UTEP and 2011-2018 as the head coach at Fresno State.
Terry takes over a Longhorns team that has been ultra-impressive to start their 2022-23 campaign.
Their only loss came in overtime to No. 18 Illinois while they also have two statement wins against Gonzaga and Creighton.
Much of the Longhorns' recent success has been due in large part to the play of guard Marcus Carr. He leads the team with 15.4 points per game, including a 28-point explosion in the Longhorns' overtime win against Rice.
No. 7 #Texas Longhorns (8-1, 7-0 home) defeat the Rice Owls 87-81 OT.
🇨🇦 Marcus Carr
28 points (season-high)
3 rebounds
3 assists
9/15 FG
4/7 3PT
6/8 FT
41 minutes#CollegeBasketba#HookEmpic.twitter.com/27LIjJ16OS— BasketballBuzz.ca 🇨🇦🏀🍁 (@basketballbuzz) December 13, 2022
Carr and backcourt mate Tyrese Hunter's play will be important on both ends of the floor as the Cardinal have looked to their backcourt for much of their offensive production.
On offense, Texas is most successful when getting to the rim. The Longhorns have shot the fifth-highest two-point percentage in the country at 60.3%.
This affinity for finishing at the rim will be tested against Stanford's elite height. The Cardinal are the eighth-tallest team in the country with an average height of six-foot-seven.
Stanford has used this height to generate a Block Rate of 13.0% (44th nationally). Similar to Texas, if the Cardinal force the Longhorns into outside shots, they may slow down the Longhorns.
Despite averaging 81.8 points per game, Texas has only shot 29.8% from deep (309th nationally). Stanford will look to expose this poor shooting by protecting the rim like it has all season.
Stanford vs. Texas Betting Pick
When looking at this unique Sunday matchup, I see advantages for both defenses.
Throughout the season, both of these teams have struggled to find consistency from the 3-point line with neither team averaging over 30% from deep.
Additionally, Stanford will use its size to create problems for a Texas offense that thrives on getting into the lane.
Add in the Cardinal's affinity for turnovers against the Longhorns' pressure, and you have a recipe for a low-scoring contest.
At the time of writing, KenPom projects this as a 72-61 victory for the Longhorns. I'll back the under to no lower than 131.5.
