The madness rolls along with 17 more leagues kicking off their conference tournaments this week. With that in mind, I thought I'd make a case for a non-top seed in 10 of those 17 brackets to help you better prepare for your daily viewing and wagering.
Before I start, I must stress how important it is to shop around for the best price. You should do that with every bet, but it's more crucial when it comes to conference championship futures, as the odds vary widely depending on the book.
Don't leave potential free money on the table by taking a worse price than what's available.
Hopefully, some of these can go as well as last week's group.
Also, if you're curious, I do think there's value in top seeds Sam Houston State (+500) and Toledo (+300) in C-USA and the MAC, respectively, but let's get into some non-top seeds worth taking a look at in the futures market.
Note: I bet Pitt (15-1) in the ACC tournament just based on the value of the number.
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AAC
No. 7 Seed North Texas Mean Green
To Win AAC Tournament (+1000)
- Format: 14 teams. Top 4 seeds have double byes. Seeds 5-10 have single byes.
- Location: Fort Worth, Texas
- Dates: Wednesday, Mar. 13 — Sunday, Mar. 17
I'm looking to attack the bottom half of the bracket by fading No. 2 seed Florida Atlantic. The Owls, who are already safely in the NCAA tournament, seemingly played close games on a nightly basis during league play and look a bit vulnerable.
If you're looking for a lottery ticket, Tulane (150-1) might be worth some couch change. The Green Wave start off with North Texas (10-1) before facing FAU if they can advance.
They're intriguing since they have so much offensive talent and use a high-variance zone defense under head coach Ron Hunter — who's certainly had previous success in tournament settings — that forces opponents into plenty of looks from the perimeter.
However, I decided to roll with North Texas (10-1) since the Mean Green are fully capable of hitting the outside shots that Tulane will allow.
Plus, the Green Wave don't have any depth (357th Bench Minutes, per KenPom) and play with a ton of pace (12th in Adjusted Tempo), which could prove problematic in a format that would require them to win four games in four days.
Conversely, North Texas has ample depth with the second-slowest Adjusted Tempo in the country — ahead of only Virginia. That leads to less fatigue and fewer-possession games, which increases variance for a squad that has ample depth for a run at 100% health.
Most importantly, I think this team is pretty undervalued in the market due to the injuries it had to deal with throughout the season. Rubin Jones and CJ Noland missed 11 and five league games, respectively.
Additionally, Rondel Walker also missed the first 10 and last three games of the regular season, but he should return to action for the conference tournament.
That's three of their six best players who all missed chunks of time during the year.
At full strength, this team is significantly more dangerous and only lost by a combined seven points in two meetings with FAU. Also, at least one of those players missed both contests versus the Owls.
Lastly, from a pure numbers perspective, I do show some value in Charlotte (15-1). The 49ers skidded down the stretch, but they still have plenty of talent and will benefit from the double-bye as the No. 3 seed.
If the chalk holds, the 49ers would likely face an SMU team that finds itself in a tailspin — having lost four of five to finish the regular season — followed by a Florida Atlantic squad they beat in their only regular season meeting.
Charlotte also runs a very methodical offense and uses a press to slow opponents down, resulting in a ranking of 356th nationally in Adjusted Tempo. That equates to lower-possession, grinding-style games, which is what I'm looking for with a longer shot in a tournament setting.
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Atlantic 10
No. 8 Seed George Mason Patriots
To Win A-10 Tournament (+1800)
- Format: 14 teams. Top 4 seeds have double byes. Seeds 5-9 have single byes.
- Location: Brooklyn, New York
- Dates: Tuesday, Mar. 12 — Sunday, Mar. 17
In the Atlantic 10, I'm staying away from the bottom half of the bracket that contains both the best (Dayton +140) and hottest (Loyola Chicago +575) teams in the league.
However, the top half looks a lot more wide open with Richmond +500 — the seventh-best team in the league since Feb. 1, per Bart Torvik — and UMass +800 — which has a key injury concern — as the top two seeds.
In my opinion, three squads could potentially take advantage and break through to the championship game:
- VCU (11-1)
- Saint Joseph's (25-1)
- George Mason (18-1)
I can't quite get there at this price with VCU, but the Rams are very well-coached under Ryan Odom. Plus, they play at a slower pace (274th Adjusted Tempo) and shoot a high-volume of 3s (37th), so I certainly can see the case.
Led by star guard Erik Reynolds II, the Hawks are an extremely high-variance team (312th in Consistency, per Haslametrics) since they shoot an extremely high volume of 3s (12th in 3-point attempt rate) and allow them on the other end (343rd) with their compact defense.
However, they do prefer to play with a decent amount of pace and don't have much depth, which leads me to believe the hawk will indeed eventually die.
Hopefully, it's an early death and comes against George Mason, which I backed to cut down the nets in the Barclays Center on Sunday.
The Patriots should finally be at full strength on Wednesday, with the likely return of UNLV transfer Keyshawn Hall (who has missed the past three games) and Ronald Polite. Plus, the red-hot Virginia Tech transfer Darius Maddox already returned to action after missing time in February.
At full strength, this team can play with anybody in the league, as it showed in victories over Dayton and its potential semifinal opponent, Richmond.
Plus, George Mason ranks 343rd in Adjusted Tempo and gives up an abundance of 3-point attempts (305th), which makes it a pretty high-variance team (356th in Consistency), which I fancy in a long shot with a high ceiling.
Big 12
No. 3 Seed Baylor Bears
To Win Big 12 Tournament (+900)
- Format: 14 teams. Top 4 seeds have double byes. Seeds 5-10 have single byes.
- Location: Kansas City, Missouri
- Dates: Tuesday, Mar. 12 — Saturday, Mar. 16
Houston (-140) is the clear favorite to cut down the nets in Kansas City, but I don't see any value in the Cougars, who'll have to start with a desperate team in either Oklahoma 100-1 (which they recently beat the buzzer) or TCU 65-1 (which they lost to at the buzzer).
Then the Coogs would likely face either BYU 13-1 (which has an offense that theoretically matches up well with Houston) or Texas Tech 20-1 (which has a major looming injury question with the status of big man Warren Washington).
Ultimately, I have no interest in the top half of the bracket, outside of potentially throwing some couch change on a complete Powerball ticket on UCF 250-1. The Knights struggle to score but do have a nationally-elite defense.
I'm much more interested in the bottom half of the bracket, where I think Baylor holds value at 9-1. I just don't understand the price discrepancy between the No. 3 seed Bears and No. 2 seed Iowa State (+350), who each will benefit from a double bye.
Not only do I have those two clubs power-rated almost evenly, but you could argue that the Cyclones have a tougher potential first opponent in either Kansas State 200-1 (which they just lost to) or Texas +2400 (which boasts plenty of talent).
Meanwhile, the Bears will most likely face a Kansas squad that's dealing with a pair of major injuries to Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. — both first-team All-Big 12 performers. That's super concerning for a team that already lacks depth.
Even if either or both suit up for their first game, they might not on a back-to-back against Baylor.
Plus, I'd imagine Bill Self would want to err on the side of caution with the NCAA tournament looming.
Meanwhile, Baylor recently saw the return of Langston Love, who's one of the most effective sixth man in the entire country. This is just too good of a price to pass up on the Bears.
They have a trio of potential NBA draft picks who headline a very young team that oozes with potential. They also have improved a bit defensively of late with Scott Drew shifting to more zone.
Lastly, in the worst path possible scenario, if they have to face Iowa State and Houston, the Bears do at least have the outside shotmakers (40.4% from 3 on the season) that you need to beat both elite defenses.
Big Ten
No. 3 Seed Nebraska Cornhuskers
To Win Big Ten Tournament (+1100)
- Format: 14 teams. Top 4 seeds have double byes. Seeds 5-10 have single byes.
- Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
- Dates: Wednesday, Mar. 13 — Sunday, Mar. 17
Purdue (+100) is the deserved favorite to win a second straight Big Ten title, but I think the Boilermakers are fairly priced in the futures market.
Elsewhere in the top half, I want no part of No. 4 seed Northwestern, which is dealing with injuries and lacks depth.
I don't really see anything worth backing in the top half of the region, unless you wanted to throw a complete dart on Maryland 65-1, which does have a nationally-elite defense (assuming Julian Reese is good to go health wise) and a star guard in Jahmir Young.
The Terps underperformed all season — primarily because they can't shoot — but they do sit outside the top 300 in Adjusted Temp. They will almost certainly play in three low-scoring, grinding affairs against Rutgers, Wisconsin and Northwestern if they continue to advance.
However, winning five games in five days with a limited offense, while hoping Reese (if healthy) stays out of foul trouble seems too far-fetched in my eyes at this price.
I'm more interested in the bottom half of the bracket, where I show value on Nebraska 11-1. Not only do the Huskers have a double bye to the quarterfinals as the No. 3 seed, they have a pretty favorable draw, with likely Indiana (while the Hoosiers are playing better of late, Nebraska beat them twice convincingly) followed by Illinois (+310) in the semis, assuming the Illini even get past either a desperate Iowa or Ohio State club.
Nebraska did take the Illini to overtime in Champaign and will at least limit them in transition (third percentile in transition frequency allowed, per Synergy), where they're absolutely deadly, led by Terrence Shannon Jr.
Plus, Nebraska is playing its best basketball of the season. Per Bart Torvik, since the beginning of February, the Cornhuskers rank 11th nationally in overall Adjusted Efficiency, trailing only Purdue (8th) over that span and ahead of Illinois (19th).
And while the Illini have had issues defensively (149th since Feb. 1), Nebraska ranks second overall. Not enough people are talking about how well Fred Hoiberg's squad is playing on that end of the floor.
Plus, the Huskers have a myriad of depth, which can't hurt in a format that'll require them to win three games in three days.
Lastly, if they do have to face Purdue in the championship, Nebraska has a defensive scheme that gives it a chance against Zach Edey (who's been held in check over the past two seasons against Nebraska).
It denies the post as well as any team in the country. Per Synergy, the Huskers rank in the sixth and eighth percentile in rim and post chances allowed, respectively, while also grading out elite in those few possessions they do give up.
That at least gives them a shot vs. Purdue, but I'd obviously prefer for someone else in the top half to do the dirty work and pull off an upset.
Big East
No. 6 Seed Villanova Wildcats
To Win Big East Tournament (+2000)
- Format: 11 teams. Top 5 seeds receive a bye
- Location: New York City
- Dates: Wednesday, Mar. 13 — Saturday, Mar. 16
Do I really want to get in front of the UConn (-140) train? Not really, especially since I think the Huskies will be motivated to add this trophy to their case after losing to Marquette in the semis last season.
While I'm not betting anything from a futures perspective, if I were to make a case for any team, it would have to be Villanova (20-1).
While I'm not a huge fan of this particular squad or head coach Kyle Neptune in a tournament setting, Villanova ranks 20th in overall Adjusted Efficiency since Feb. 1, per Bart Torvik. Nova is certainly a much better team at the moment with a fully healthy Justin Moore in the mix.
Most importantly, the desperate Wildcats check all of the boxes for a potential conference tournament long shot. They play very slow (347th in Adjusted Tempo) and their games consist of a plethora of 3-point variance, as they attempt 3s at a top-20 rate and allow them at a bottom-20 frequency.
They also have adequate depth to make a deep run in a tournament format.
Plus, their path doesn't look overwhelmingly difficult, starting with a cake walk against DePaul followed by a potentially shorthanded Marquette squad with Tyler Kolek's status up in the air. If I had to guess, Shaka Smart will probably be cautious with his star guard ahead of the dance.
They would then likely face a Creighton team in the semis that they essentially played to a draw in both meetings. It's not that crazy of a path before a potential matchup with UConn, where you'd have to hope for some very good 3-point variance in a lower-scoring game.
But you could be in a worse position than having a 20-1 ticket at that point.
Of course, there's at least a chance UConn suffers an upset in the semis at the hands of Seton Hall (which did beat the Huskies once) or St. John's (which will get to play in the Garden and is peaking at just the right time).
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Big West
No. 2 Seed UC Davis Aggies
To Win Big West Tournament (+500)
- Format: 8 teams. Top 4 seeds receive a bye with top 2 getting double bye.
- Location: Henderson, NV
- Dates: Wednesday, Mar. 13 — Saturday, Mar. 16
- Notes: UC San Diego not eligible for Big West tournament (it would've been the No. 2 seed)
UC Irvine (-210) is the best team in the league, which is why the Anteaters are listed as such heavy favorites. However, I show absolutely no value in backing Russell Turner's squad, which has a top-10 2-point defense for the eighth time in the past nine seasons.
The only team I'd even consider backing in the top half is UC Riverside (45-1), which is extremely well-coached and is one of the most improved teams in the country since Feb. 1.
The Highlanders won seven of nine to close out the season, including a victory over Irvine. Their only losses during this stretch came against Hawaii (in overtime) and UC San Diego.
They also shoot a high volume of 3s, which adds the variance you desire with a longer shot.
That said, despite a deep bench, it's hard to see them taking out a fully-rested Irvine team in their third game in three days.
I'd much rather target the bottom half of the bracket, where the only two teams who have a realistic shot at beating Irvine (in my opinion) reside.
The first is UC Davis (+500), which has a much easier path with the highly-coveted double bye. The Aggies, who are also very well coached under Jim Les, split two hotly-contested battles with Irvine during the regular season, winning by two at home and losing by three in overtime on the road.
Unlike UCSB, they have a reliable defense to pair with the outstanding backcourt trio of Ty Johnson, Kane Milling and Elijah Pepper.
They operate an excellent pick-and-roll heavy offense that can effectively operate in the mid-range, which is where you have to live against an Irvine defense that ranks 349th in mid-range attempt rate allowed.
The other is more of a dart throw on UC Santa Barbara (28-1). The Gauchos underperformed this season — especially on defense — but the defending champs are still very-well coached and feature an outstanding point guard, Ajay Mitchell.
The future potential first-round NBA draft pick is capable of going off for 30 on any given night.
Let's just hope more effort in this setting can lead to a bit of an improvement on defense. Regardless, I do like the Gauchos to get by Northridge in the first round and then a Hawaii (+900) team they match up very well with and swept during the regular season.
While Hawaii boasts a ton of talent, it doesn't match up well with the offenses of UCSB and UC Davis. Plus, I don't think it can beat Irvine, which is a nightmare matchup for the Bows.
Hawaii wants to take away the 3, which doesn't bother the perimeter-shooting-averse Eaters (351st in 3PA rate), who also thrive in the mid-range offensively. That's where Hawaii forces you to beat it.
Plus, Hawaii loves to chuck from 3, which Irvine completely takes away (16th nationally in 3PA rate allowed).
Not surprisingly, Irvine swept the season series by a combined 35 points.
MAAC
No. 2 Seed Fairfield Stags
To Win MAAC Tournament (+300)
- Format: 11 teams. Top 5 seeds receive a bye.
- Location: Atlantic City, New Jersey
- Dates: Tuesday, Mar. 12 — Saturday, Mar. 16
I'm riding with the No. 3 seed Fairfield (+300) — which are co-favorites along with Quinnipiac (+300).
The Stags, who are looking for their first tournament appearance since they gave No. 1 seed UNC a scare in 1997, are the best team in the league for my money. They feature an excellent backcourt, led by Brycen Goodine, Caleb Fields and Jalen Leach — who each have connected on over 40% of their 3-point attempts this season.
The Stags will shoot (and make) a ton of 3s, while applying plenty of pressure on the defensive end. They're a bit weak defensively on the glass and on the interior, but Seton Hall transfer Alexis Yetna — who made his season debut nine games ago — has helped in both departments.
I also love the draw for Fairfield, which avoids the three teams that scare me the most in Rider +650 (preseason favorite and hottest club), Quinnipiac (most-balanced) and Saint Peters +460 (playing very well and has the best defense).
I'm more than happy to let those teams battle it out in the top half, while the Stags have a relatively straightforward path of likely Iona (which recently saw its best player leave the program) and then Marist to get to the final.
I'm trusting the Fairfield guards to get it done in AC.
Pac-12
No. 9 Seed USC Trojans
To Win Pac-12 Tournament (+4500)
- Format: 12 teams. Top 4 seeds receive a bye.
- Location: Paradise, NV
- Dates: Wednesday, Mar. 13 — Saturday, Mar. 16
This price has started to come down a bit, but I think USC (45-1) is worth a flier in the Pac-12.
Over the past four weeks of the regular season, the Trojans have played at a top-20 level nationally, ranking 17th in overall Adjusted Efficiency, per Bart Torvik.
Over that span, they've gone 5-2, with their only losses coming by three in double overtime to Colorado and by three at Washington State in a pair of games they controlled most of the way.
Picked to finish second in the preseason, USC failed to live up to expectations, primarily due to a litany of injuries throughout the season. However, they're now finally fully healthy and have had enough time to mesh as a unit.
The Trojans have one of the nation's most dynamic backcourts in potential lottery pick Isaiah Collier and bucket-getter Boogie Ellis, who can go for 30 on any given night.
They also feature two of the best defenders in the league in Joshua Morgan and Kobe Johnson to go along with a perfect role player in DJ Rodman.
This team oozes with talent and potential.
Now, the draw isn't ideal. Assuming they can get by Washington, top-seed Arizona awaits in the quarterfinals.
I'm sure the Wildcats will have revenge on their minds after suffering a blowout loss at USC in the regular season finale, but the Trojans have plenty of size inside to throw at Oumar Ballo and a backcourt capable of pulling off another upset.
Elsewhere, Colorado (+500) is playing its best basketball of the season and has a very manageable draw (opposite end of the bracket from Arizona).
However, I'm not sure if the Buffaloes will be at full strength, so I can't get there at their current price, and nobody else really catches my eye.
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SEC
No. 6 Seed Florida Gators
To Win SEC Tournament (+1800)
- Format: 14 teams. Top 4 seeds have double bye. Seeds 5-10 have single bye.
- Location: Nashville, Tennessee
- Dates: Wednesday, Mar. 13 — Sunday, Mar. 17
I want no part of the top-half of the bracket in the SEC. While Tennessee is most likely to come through to the final, I don't see any value in the Vols' price.
Plus, Auburn could certainly give them a game — although I don't trust the Tigers' backcourt, especially away from home where they haven't defeated a single tournament team all season.
I'm much more interested in taking a shot in the bottom half, where Kentucky and Alabama are the top two seeds. Both teams are offensive juggernauts, but they have major issues defensively, which leaves them vulnerable to an upset, especially if the outside shots aren't falling.
I've personally targeted two teams:
- Florida 18-1
- Texas A&M 80-1
The Gators, who dealt with injuries earlier in the season, have been much better since the calendar turned to 2024. Since Jan. 1, they rank 21st nationally in overall Adjusted Efficiency — just three spots behind Kentucky and three ahead of the Crimson Tide, two teams the Gators also split with during the regular season.
They have a dynamic backcourt, can live on the offensive glass and are very well-coached under Todd Golden.
I also invested in a lottery ticket with the Aggies, who really turned it on late in the regular season during a three-game dominant winning streak. They profile as an intriguing long shot, since they play very slow and give up a ton of 3-pointers with their aggressive, swarming defense.
Both characteristics lead to high-variance games.
Texas A&M also features a very dynamic backcourt in Wade Taylor IV and Tyrece Radford, who are both capable of going off on any given night. The path would start with an Ole Miss team they just demolished on the road and then Kentucky, which they also beat during the regular season.
In potential matchups against both Kentucky and Alabama, they can live on the offensive glass, where they rank as one of the best over the past decade.
The Aggies are worth a dart for some couch change.
WAC
No. 4 Seed Seattle Redhawks
To Win WAC Tournament (+1000)
- Format: 8 teams. Top 4 seeds receive a bye with top two getting a double bye
- Location: Paradise, Nevada
- Dates: Wednesday, Mar. 13 — Saturday, Mar. 16
- Notes: Tarleton State is not eligible for the NCAA tournament
This is a really intriguing league, with some of the most improved teams in the nation since Feb. 1 all residing in this bracket, namely UT Arlington, Tarleton State and Utah Valley.
However, I'm actually targeting another squad in Seattle (10-1), which actually underperformed down the stretch.
My primary reason is the Redhawks match up extremely well with top-seeded Grand Canyon (-150), which they would face in the quarterfinals.
Why? Well, they can defend extremely well in isolation, at the rim and against pick-and-roll — three areas where Grand Canyon looks to operate.
Seattle features an outstanding man-to-man defense with a number of superb individual defenders, including Alex Schumacher, who's really frustrated Ray Harrison whenever he's faced Grand Canyon. In two meetings this season, Seattle won at home and actually took the Antelopes to overtime in Phoenix, which is no easy task.
The Redhawks also tend to play on the slower side and are a jump-shooting team, which gives their games a bit of variance.
Unlike Tarleton State, which got extremely lucky in close games throughout league play, Seattle found itself on the short end of the stick a number of times, so maybe it has some overdue bounces headed its way.
If the jump shots are falling, Seattle has the defense and a lead guard in Cameron Tyson who's fully capable of taking over a game.
Having to face Grand Canyon in the semis isn't ideal, but I like the matchup enough to pull the trigger at this price.
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