Welcome to the Summit League, the land of no defense. For total bettors, there's only one way to swing in this league: Over.
As we highlighted in last year's Summit betting preview, this league is a paradise of points. Per teamrankings.com's betting trends tool, games involving at least one Summit team went over the total by an average of 3.3 points a game last year.
Dating back to the 2021 campaign, this total margin sits at 3.2 points a game — that's a considerable edge on a multi-year sample size.
Last season marked the second time in three years the Summit checked in with the highest offensive efficiency in the country, per KenPom. This boon of offense — aided by defensive ambivalence — is ideal for over backers.
But let's dive in deeper into the Summit League below.
Dissecting the OVERlords
The longstanding identity of the following seven members — South Dakota State, Denver, Oral Roberts, South Dakota, Omaha, Western Illinois and North Dakota — fuels this sustainable intra-conference over trend.
Per teamrankings.com, these seven teams are driving the radically strong run on overs. In essence, they embody the Summit's un"D"eniable DNA — well, that there isn't much "D" at all.
In contrast, the Summit's other three members — North Dakota State, Kansas City and St. Thomas — are not clear cut over teams — at least not historically. However, they may be joining their other seven Over-Lords this year.
NDSU and Kansas City are renowned for wielding stronger defensive identities.
North Dakota State Bison
NDSU may bring a different gravy to the table this year, though. Rocky Kreuser, the Bison's prevailing paint presence, no longer roams the interior for the Bison.
This is good news for over enthusiasts, potentially, as head coach David Richman raves about a revamped perimeter corps, along with a pair of mobile bigs in Grant Nelson and Andrew Morgan.
Keep an eye on forward Nelson, who could blossom into a pro-level, two-level scoring machine.
Kansas City Roos
As for Kansas City, the artist formerly known as UMKC, the Roos are now under the direction of Marvin Menzies, who replaces a defensive whisperer in Billy Donlon.
That delta alone should bode well for the over. However, Menzies' roster is still very much under construction — thus, the prudent approach here may be to take a "wait-and-see" approach.
St. Thomas Tommies
St. Thomas addressed glaring size issues in this summer's roster tune up. This was an overdue upgrade for a team leapfrogging from D-III to D-I hoops so suddenly.
However, it's still year two of this transition, and the Tommies still look, feel and smell like a D-III roster.
Their institutional success as long-range marksmen figures to tilt the Tommies towards the over end of the totals spectrum.
All in all, the forecast shows strong winds gusting towards the over in Summit League action yet again this season.
Bettor Beware
Tactically, it's wise to proceed with caution when chasing macro trends. Thus, don't recklessly bet every over, especially in non-conference games.
Last year, the league played more neutral in non-conference action, a surprising deviation from the historical norm.
Moreover, this in-league over edge is destined to evaporate into thin air at some point, as all betting edges do. Thus, be prepared to pivot if the early over indicators look ominous.
Summit League Futures & Picks
Bookmark this Summit over angle for conference games only. Then, consider a low unit size, higher-volume mini portfolio — specifically, play the vast majority of overs in Summit League games for a small amount.
A lower unit approach limits the exposure to any market erosion of this edge, while spreading the risk and variance across a larger number of games.
