Have you ever heard the joke, “We used to have Cash, Hope, and Jobs – now we don’t have any” (in reference to Johnny Cash, Bob Hope and Steve Jobs)?
I imagine the Conference USA feels similarly. This league used to have Marquette, Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis … and even last year, it boasted Final Four participant FAU and NIT finalists North Texas and UAB.
Various periods of realignment have gutted the league, but the C-USA soldiers on as a mid-major beacon in the college sports world.
What remains is a parity-ridden league of incumbents and newcomers. The excessive parity generates some betting opportunity, with essentially every team entering 2023-24 with hope of filling the vacant power void atop the standings.
Conference USA Regular Season NCAAB Title Odds
| Team Name | Odds (Via Caesars) |
| Liberty | +190 |
| Sam Houston | +450 |
| Louisiana Tech | +500 |
| Western Kentucky | +600 |
| New Mexico State | +700 |
| Middle Tennessee | +700 |
| UTEP | +800 |
| Jacksonville State | +1600 |
| FIU | +2500 |
The Favorite
Liberty Flames
Liberty is entrenched as the betting favorite despite making its debut from the ASUN. That standing is probably justified: the Flames had the best 2022-23 KenPom ranking (48th) of any current C-USA program, and they return four starters from that outstanding squad.
Coach Ritchie McKay has cultivated a team-first culture; Liberty plays quite slowly, with players sacrificing counting stats for the success of the team.
Kyle Rode is a prime example. The super senior is the program’s second-best recruit ever (per 247 Sports), yet he's never tallied more than 10.9 points per contest. He's started 102 career games already, and his leadership – McKay calls him “Captain America” – should set the tone for a veteran Flames unit.
Of course, the one departure is enormous (though not in stature): 5-foot-9 dynamo Darius McGhee, a flame-throwing gunner who racked up 2,685 points in his storied Liberty tenure.
Expect a far more balanced attack this season, reminiscent of the 2018-19 Flames that had six players average between 7.2 and 12.6 points per contest.
Plus, Liberty’s modified pack-line defense will always make opponents feel like they’re undergoing a root canal when trying to score.
The Contenders
The C-USA boasts six teams with odds between +450 and +800, indicating implied probability of 18.2% down to 11.1%. That flat distribution underscores just how balanced the C-USA is, with the beauty of any particular contender lying in the eye of each beholder.
Sam Houston Bearkats
Sam Houston is another newbie to the C-USA, having spent just two seasons in the WAC after elevating from the Southland.
That meteoric rise through the conference rankings hasn't slowed the Bearkats’ winning ways; last year’s team went 26-8 overall and finished one game back of regular-season champ Utah Valley.
SHSU loses quite a bit of production, though – plus its head coach, who's now at rival New Mexico State (more on the Aggies shortly).
However, new boss Chris Mudge has been at SHSU since 2010, so the odds understandably don't expect a major drop-off.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
One of the biggest movers and shakers in the preseason odds has been Louisiana Tech, which opened at 22/1 at Caesars.
That was quickly bet down to 16/1, and the Bulldogs’ odds have steadily ticked down to where they now stand.
Coach Talvin Hester had an outstanding offseason, most notably snagging Daniel Batcho from Texas Tech, where Hester was an assistant.
Batcho might instantly be the best player in the league — expect him to dominate the paint on both ends — and if the Bulldogs can get solid guard play, they could pay off handsomely for those who took an early flier on them (ahem, yours truly).
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
WKU scooped Steve Lutz from Texas A&M-Corpus Christi after he made back-to-back NCAA tournaments there, and he quickly assembled an intriguing roster.
Notably, though, point guard Terrion Murdix – who followed his coach from Corpus Christi – will miss the season due to a knee injury suffered in the Southland Tournament.
New Mexico State Aggies
NMSU, meanwhile, swiped Jason Hooten from Sam Houston, entrusting the longtime head honcho with a total rebuild.
The Aggies returned zero (0) scholarship players from last season’s debacle, a season that got canceled in February due to player hazing issues.
Like Lutz, Hooten quickly pieced together a competitive roster, though the Aggies’ ceiling might be limited if two-time transfer Femi Odukale (Pitt/Seton Hall) can't obtain a waiver to play immediately.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
The other two “contenders” are C-USA holdovers: Middle Tennessee and UTEP. The Blue Raiders’ claim to fame is a 29-2 record in their last 31 home games; consistently winning in Murfreesboro has kept them in contention.
A balanced squad, Middle Tennessee lost a couple key pieces this offseason, but coach Nick McDevitt added enough to feel optimistic – plus, Jalen Jordan (9.4 PPG in 2020-21) is back after missing two consecutive seasons to torn ACLs.
UTEP Miners
On the other hand, UTEP was one of the most defense-forward teams in the country last season, led by multi-positional destroyer Calvin Solomon.
Unfortunately, that’s the friendly way of saying “these Miners could not score.”
Joe Golding, who led Abilene Christian to two NCAA tournament bids, hopes that he’s found enough offensive pop to complement that defense.
The Longshots
The two longshots — Jacksonville State and FIU — aren't typical dregs of a mid-major league.
The Gamecocks are led by KyKy Tandy, an Xavier transfer who could lead the conference in scoring if he’s healthy.
Similarly, the Panthers have a loaded frontcourt – Jeremy Ballard’s first in six years in Miami – and return Arturo Dean, an electric scoring guard and the C-USA’s reigning Freshman of the Year.
Betting Recommendations
This league is a glorious “choose your own adventure,” where it’s difficult to go wrong. None of these teams are drawing dead to start the season; a few bounces and beneficial injury luck could make or break the league race.
As a result, as much as I respect McKay and Liberty, I can't recommend them at such a short price in a balanced league.
At longer odds, Louisiana Tech would be my wager (and, in reality, the Bulldogs were my wager at 16/1). Much of the Louisiana Tech value has been cannibalized by the market, though.
Where things currently stand, Middle Tennessee +700 would be my pick. McDevitt has steadily improved the program in his tenure, and it could be the Blue Raiders’ time to ascend now that North Texas, FAU and UAB have left town. Plus, the home court advantage is real and raises their performance floor.
If you’re feeling especially risky, a sprinkle on FIU 25/1 as a longshot also intrigues me.
