The Southern Conference is regularly one of the most entertaining mid-major leagues in America, thanks to its high-level competition and interesting results.
Plus, the league finally won an NCAA tournament game last season when Furman topped Virginia in the first round.
But today, at Action, we'll look at how you should bet the conference heading into the 2023-24 season, because a winning angle is always possible.
SoCon Regular Season NCAAB Conference Title Odds
| Team Name | Odds (Via Caesars) |
| Furman | +190 |
| Samford | +280 |
| Chattanooga | +450 |
| UNC Greensboro | +550 |
| Western Carolina | +700 |
| East Tennessee State | +800 |
| Mercer | +1500 |
| Wofford | +2200 |
| The Citadel | +2800 |
| VMI | +4000 |
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The Favorites
Furman Paladins
It finally happened! Furman ended its 40+ year NCAA tournament drought. JP Pegues' game-winning jumper against Virginia was the shot of the tournament (until the Final Four, at least).
As a follow up, head coach Bob Richey now has the difficult task of replacing program legends Jalen Slawson and Mike Bothwell.
However, there isn't a mid-major program in the country better at developing from within than Furman.
The Paladins have a full arsenal of talented players, and Pegues looks like the next great Furman guard. He truly embodies the program's current state — waiting your turn, playing your role and eventually taking the reins as the guy.
Other integral core pieces — Alex Williams, Marcus Foster and Garrett Hien — all figure to make a jump this season, while D-II transfer PJay Smith is the perfect comrade to Pegues in the backcourt.
Perhaps the most interesting name is Williams, a junior forward who watched Slawson from a distance as his backup. If you're a proponent of per-40 extrapolated numbers, Williams averaged 16.8 points and 7.4 rebounds per 40.
At 6-foot-5, 235 pounds, Williams loves to initiate contact on drives and isn't afraid to unload the clip from beyond the arc. He's the key to unlocking Furman's success.
Lastly, Furman is ole' reliable. You can trust the Paladins to churn out 21+ wins until Richey leaves the program for greener pastures.
The question, though: Is Furman worth betting on to win the SoCon? The league has a few dangerous competitors to the program's dominance, but it's hard to pass on Furman to win the SoCon at plus money.
UNC Greensboro Spartans
Mike Jones has built an identity at UNC Greensboro. That identity is similar to the one Wes Miller brought: toughness on defense.
The Spartans ranked 60th nationally in Defensive Efficiency last season, per KenPom. It's rare to keep opponents to 60 points or less, but the Spartans limited them to 60 or less in 11 of 25 conference games.
The toughest part for SoCon foes? Even if guards evade Keyshaun and Kobe Langley on the perimeter, they'll meet athletic rim-protector Mikeal Brown-Jones to reach their ultimate goal of scoring.
An elite defense can only take a team so far if the offense can't score. And that's the concern here. Can UNC Greensboro find a way to score enough to win the SoCon?
One season ago, Keondre Kennedy regularly bailed the offense out when it stalled, which makes the dynamic Langley twins even more critical.
I highly recommend monitoring totals in Greensboro games, particularly under the total in UNCG's non-conference slate, as it looks to figure out who else to rely on for scoring pop.
At a sizable plus number, Western Carolina is worth taking a chance on if you want a solid mid-major to back.
Best Values
Western Carolina Catamounts
The best value in the SoCon is Western Carolina.
During an improved 2022-23 season under head coach Justin Gray, the Panthers covered in 53% of their matchups and won 18 games.
The backcourt duo of jumbo point guard Vonterius Woolbright and perimeter marksmen Tre Jackson is the reason to buy stock in Western Carolina.
At 6-foot-6 with terrific post-up skills and playmaking abilities, Woolbright is a matchup nightmare for opposing teams. Opposing teams can't defend Woolbright with a point guard, so whoever the best perimeter defender is typically draws the assignment on the stat-stuffing guard.
Additionally, Coach Gray has a pair of flame-throwing, undersized guards in Russell Jones Jr. and intra-conference transfer Kamar Robertson (Mercer). Those two guards will play important roles, whether they start or come off the bench.
The guard depth is a major feather in the Catamounts' cap.
It's never ideal to lose your best big man, though, especially one of Tyzhaun Claude's caliber. Claude brought a physical scoring presence to the Catamounts' attack.
With Claude out, Western will hinge on Bernard Pelote and transfers Charles Lampten (Charleston) and Cornelius Williams (LSU) to shore up the front line.
Samford Bulldogs
Bucky Ball is full bloom at Samford. The Bulldogs won 21 games in each of the last two seasons under Bucky McMillan, and there’s plenty of optimism for that success to carry over into his fourth season.
It starts with superstar forward Jermaine Marshall, who possesses an intimidating skill set — a burly combo forward who can make plays at the rim and added an improved jumper last season. Marshall will vie for the SoCon Player of the Year if the Bulldogs are good enough to finish in the upper-four of the conference.
Who will get Marshall the ball? Utah State transfer Rylan Jones will start at point guard. The super senior started 75 career games between stops at Utah and Utah State.
Jones isn’t the dominating scorer Ques Glover is, but he’s a better connector, which should keep the Bulldogs from collapsing in big moments.
Samford’s offense is fun to watch, and there’s enough pieces here to believe in a potential league contending team.
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Somewhere in the Middle
Chattanooga Mocs
While a team like UNC Greensboro hinges on defensive success, Chattanooga is the polar opposite. The Mocs attempted 52% of its shots from 3, which led the country by 2.9% over San Francisco.
The Mocs' motto is " live by the 3, die by the 3."
However, the motto will have to live on without its centerpiece. The Mocs lost All-SoCon talent Jake Stephens, who accounted for 22 points and 9.8 rebounds in 24 games.
There isn't an obvious replacement for a player like Stephens, but Dan Earl relied on the portal to supplant the lost talent.
Honor Huff (who averaged 10.0 points for VMI in 2021-22) figures to play an essential scoring role, and Pepperdine forward transfer Jan Zidek should, too.
I love the idea of Zidek in this system. Coach Earl loves forwards who can handle the ball on the perimeter, make shots from deep and take the ball and score on the block. Zidek checks those boxes and previously played in a much better conference, which bodes well for him putting up larger numbers.
Zidek isn't Stephens, but Earl wanted to get someone with a similar skill-set to replace the departing star. That's why Zidek is here.
My main drawback on the Mocs' contending chances: Their rebounding will take a significant hit without Stephens, who utilized his massive wingspan and strength to secure rebounds.
Sophomore breakout candidate Sam Alexis is someone to watch as a plus rebounder. As a freshman, he captured 3.8 rebounds per game in 11.7 minutes, seemingly always leaving an imprint on the game.
Chattanooga's core of Huff, Zidek, Alexis and Demetrius Davis is talented enough to make serious noise in this conference.
The Mocs' style is challenging to prepare for, too, which is worth accounting for when betting for/against Chattanooga.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
East Tennessee State is a largely unknown commodity in the first year of the Brooks Savage era.
Savage is very familiar with the program, spending 2015-20 on staff under Steve Forbes. He also joined Forbes in Wake Forest for the past three seasons, and now it's his show at ETSU.
He brings in JUCO transfer Quimari Peterson from John A. Logan, one of the premier JUCO schools in America. The addition of Peterson — paired with a slew of interesting frontcourt pieces like Jaden Seymour, DJ Hughes and Jadyn Parker — makes the Bucs interesting enough to speculate on.
The Bucs have plenty of size, but shooting could be an issue.
The best version of the Buccaneers likely comes from a high-level defense that will use it's athletic frontcourt to limit scoring at the hoop.
The best Forbes-coached teams at ETSU made its bacon on defense. Will Savage's teams follow a similar blueprint?
Mercer Bears
The Bears won just 14 games one season ago and didn't pose a major threat to the upper-echelon SoCon teams. It regularly feasted on the afterthoughts, like The Citadel and VMI.
That will have to change this season. And here's how it happens.
Unlike Western Carolina, Mercer's strength is … well its literal strength and length.
Nobody epitomizes strength more than All-Conference phenom Jalyn McCreary, who posted 15.2 points in only 24 minutes per contest. He's one of the league's most fearsome players, and many opposing SoCon teams have frontcourt concerns, which I highlight in other blurbs.
Coach Greg Gary wasn't satisfied with the team's size, as he brought in Amanze Ngumezi (Jacksonville State) and Alex Holt (High Point) to ensure the Bears have no issues if foul trouble occurs.
Mercer wants to keep games low-scoring using its defense, but you have to make perimeter shots to some degree.
That's what keeps Mercer on the very edge of the "Great Values" category. Shooting is a major issue, barring big performances from transfers Robby Carmody (Notre Dame), Caleb Hunter (Mississippi Valley State) and a healthy Jalen Cobb.
It's imperative to find ways to win even at a tempo different than your preferred pace. That's what makes good teams good — ones that can win different types of games.
I think Mercer is worth a small sprinkle for a longshot.
Bottom-Feeders to Ignore (And Possibly Fade)
VMI Keydets
VMI only managed to sneak out eight wins in the first year of the Andrew Wilson era, and winning is more difficult now after a rough offseason.
The Keydets lost Rickey Bradley Jr. (Georgia State), Sean Conway (St. John’s), Tony Felder Jr. (Stonehill), Asher Woods (Tulane) and Tyler Houser (Delaware).
In short, Wilson lost nearly his entire roster from an eight-win team. Wilson kept a similar offensive philosophy as Earl did — they shot plenty of perimeter jumpers last season. But that's the only thing VMI did slightly well.
It had a ghastly defense, ranking 361st of 363 teams in Defensive Efficiency.
This season, the Keydets are easily one of the 15 worst teams in America, with a mostly new cast of characters and no proven identity to rely on.
In today’s wild world of college basketball, it’s virtually impossible to contend the following season after losing your entire roster to the portal. That's especially true when that school is a military academy, which isn't a desirable spot for transfers given the schedule between military, class and basketball.
That said, VMI’s two notable returnees — Taeshaud Jackson II and Cooper Sisco — look poised to play massive roles as the team looks for a steady dose of offensive production. Jackson is one to monitor as an All-SoCon player.
It’ll be a long season for VMI, and I would get ready to fade it until further notice.
The Citadel Bulldogs
The Bulldogs' most recent winning season? 2009.
But the silver lining is Ed Conroy also coached that team.
Conroy dipped into the transfer portal and pulled out a pair of frontcourt contributors, Winston Hill (Presbyterian) and Quentin Millora-Brown (Vanderbilt). Both will improve the Bulldogs' efforts on the glass.
Scoring is an issue. Sophomore Madison Durr should take the keys from graduated guard Austin Ash, who averaged over 15 points one season ago. Durr has ideal size for a scoring guard at 6-foot-4, and showed promising potential at times, averaging 7.7 points in 32 games.
However, it'll have to come more consistently in order to improve The Citadel's win total.
The Citadel has more long-term appeal to me than VMI and Wofford. The reason why? Improvement on defense is a focal point for the coaching staff, and it'll lead to lower-scoring games, which it's pace favors.
The Citadel covered just 12 of its 31 games last season, the worst among SoCon teams. There's possibly a little more value this season, as it'll look to reverse the unimpressive ATS stats.
The improved frontcourt length from Hill and Millora-Brown completely transform this defense from an unathletic, undersized unit to a slightly more athletic roster that can deter some inside scoring.
Wofford Terriers
The portal gods did Wofford no favors. Jackson Paveletzke and B.J. Mack left for high-major schools and Wofford did virtually nothing to improve its talent base.
It’s a full-on transition season in Dwight Perry’s first full campaign at the helm. Perry managed to keep the team on track after Jay McAuley resigned mid-season in 2022-23, finishing with 17 wins while pulling off an upset over UNCG in the SoCon Tournament.
Wofford had a lackluster defense, finishing outside the top-300 nationally, per KenPom, and its offense is due for regression, given the major departures.
Wofford’s biggest scoring threat is Corey Tripp, who started 32 of 33 games last season and averaged eight points. He isn’t Paveletzke, but he’s a capable scorer who'll likely see a noticeable scoring increase due to the sheer volume of shot attempts he's likely to receive.
Overall, Wofford’s talent is completely depleted. It lost its top players after barely finishing over .500.
Wofford has bottom-tier SoCon talent, right near VMI and The Citadel.
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