Oral Roberts vs. Missouri State Odds
| Oral Roberts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 151 -105o / -115u | +270 |
| Missouri State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 151 -105o / -115u | -350 |
After a year of hiatus, Missouri State and Oral Roberts will face off again.
Currently tied at 6-6 in the series all-time, the home team has gone 5-1, while neither school has won two in a row since 2016. Oral Roberts won the last meeting in 2019, but will it be able to pull off an upset on the road this year? It does own the lone road win in this series all time.
It's been an odd start to the year for the Golden Eagles, who made it to the Sweet 16 last season. They returned their superstar in Max Abmas, along with three other starters.
Still, they've started the season just 5-4 with three of their five wins coming over teams not even ranked by KenPom. And after losing to 339th-ranked Central Arkansas, they took a 45th-ranked Oklahoma State team to OT, losing by just one.
It would be a massive understatement to say it's hard to gauge where this Golden Eagles team is.
Missouri State finds itself in a similar situation, currently 5-4, without beating a team ranked inside the KenPom top 200. Yet, the Bears grade out as a much better team than Oral Roberts and may have a mid-major star of their own in Gaige Prim.
But will that be enough to keep Oral Roberts from breaking the series trends?
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
Last season, the Golden Eagles finished the year as the 20th-best 3-point shooting team in the country. They seem to be on track to be one of the best groups from deep again this year, hitting at a 37.8% clip, ranking 44th nationally.
But there's been some cause for concern. Of all of the Eagles' points, 49.7% come from outside the arc. They missed the first four from deep in their last game, and they've hit below 35% three times this season. If Oral Roberts goes cold from deep, it becomes a very different team.
And when they aren't connecting on 3s, they haven't been very good. The Golden Eagles average 76.5 points a game but rank 321st in the country on defense, allowing opponents to record 79.2 points per contest.
Excluding the 3s, they've been one of the worst shooting teams around, hitting at just 46.9% on 2-point shots, 248th nationally.
Without Texas Tech transfer Kevin Obanor and Incarnate Word transfer RJ Glasper, the Golden Eagles seem to have taken a step backward.
But even with a lacking defense and an offense that relies so heavily on the 3, is that enough for Missouri State to edge out Abmas and company?
Missouri State Bears
The Bears face a tough conference in the Missouri Valley, a conference they haven't won since 1992 and haven't been the regular-season champ in since 2011.
However, there was hope heading into this year for the Bears, who returned all five starters and 89% of their scoring from last year's team that matched a program record for conference road wins and finished third in the MVC.
But things haven't exactly gone to plan for the Dana Ford's squad, which has suffered losses to two teams that rank outside the top 200, per KenPom. In their last game against Little Rock, the Bears finally put together a dominant 81-55 win to end their two-game losing streak.
The struggles for the Bears have come almost entirely on the defensive end. Missouri State has allowed opponents to average 68.8 points per game and post a shooting percentage of 42.4%.
While those aren't the worst stats in college basketball, it doesn't take much to spell trouble for the Bears. Missouri State is 5-0 when its opponent records fewer than 66 points but 0-5 when it allows them to surpass that mark.
Oral Roberts vs. Missouri State Betting Pick
Neither of these teams has had an impressive start to the season, but there's one factor that I believe will define this game.
No team in Division I basketball makes more 3-point shots per game than Oral Roberts, which averages 13.4 per game. It also ranks third in 3-point attempts and is tied for 15th in 3-point shooting percentage.
The Bears rank 301st in the opponent's 3-point shooting percentage, and only 57 teams in Division I have been worse.
The Oral Roberts defense has been bad, but Missouri State's perimeter defense is even worse. And while I mentioned the Golden Eagles' struggles from deep this season, I think it only improves as they go on.
I grabbed Oral Roberts at +10.5 and would feel confident in them as low as +8.
Pick: Oral Roberts +8 or better
