The opening round of the Pac-12 Tournament is a good exercise in what the next week and a half will be like for casual gamblers across the country. Deeply flawed teams are not only going to cover spreads, but they’re going to win outright against opponents with better resumes and more talent.
Does that mean there’s value in backing a few dogs in Las Vegas on Wednesday, or are the dregs of the Pac-12 too lousy to put up a fight?
Here’s how I’m seeing the board in the opening round of the Pac-12 Tournament.
Oregon State vs. Utah
- Spread: Oregon State -3
- Total: 135.5
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- TV: Pac-12 Network
Oregon State has been highly reliable in the past month. The Beavers have beaten teams that they’re supposed to beat and they cover spreads.
And when they face premium competition, they’re often run right out of the building. Those two normals account for their wins straight-up and ATS against Utah, Stanford, and Cal as well as their losses to Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and Oregon.
Utah, meanwhile, has been all over the map with wins over Colorado and USC in recent weeks balanced by blowout losses to Cal and Stanford.
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As long as Oregon State can avoiding falling in love with the three (32.3%, 220th), its efficient 2P offense should shine through and win the day. Oregon State’s star senior, Tres Tinkle, has also come alive down the stretch, with three 23-plus point performances in his last four games.
The value in this spot is taking the Beavers on the alternate line, counting on the Utes to implode and rooting for a repeat performance of their 70-51 blowout of Utah back on Feb. 13.
Pick: Alternate Line OSU -10.5 (+250)
Arizona vs. Washington
- Spread: Arizona -4.5
- Total: 139
- Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
- TV: Pac-12 Network
This game presents tremendous value for Arizona backers. Just a week ago, Washington was completely written off before a pair of wins over Arizona State and Arizona on the road put some wind in their sails.
Had the Huskies fallen to either the Sun Devils or the Wildcats, this spread would be closer to -10. Instead, on paper, it appears the betting market believes UW has a puncher’s chance of handing Arizona another loss.
The story here is Washington's 2-3 zone and the Wildcats handling of said zone. The Cats struggled in Seattle but found a way to put points on the board during a 75-72 victory. During the rematch, they couldn’t find any kind of rhythm offensively and turned the ball over 18 times. Arizona isn’t usually sloppy with the ball (40th in turnovers per possession) and wasn’t in its first meeting with UW.
Offensively, UW hasn’t been able to replace Quade Green in a meaningful way and for that reason, I feel like the bottom will drop out of Washington’s decidedly inefficient offense (188th nationally).
I’d look for a positive regression in the Wildcats shooting, particularly from long-range, and a more disciplined performance in terms of turnovers.
Pick: Arizona -4.5
Stanford vs. Cal
- Spread: Stanford -9.5
- Total: 128.5
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV: Pac-12 Network
Stanford is firmly on the bubble, and not only needs this opening round win but will likely be eying USC in the quarterfinals, a team it lost to in overtime this season. Is this a lookahead spot for the Cardinal? Potentially.
These two teams split their regular-season games, with both programs protecting their home courts. The striking difference was the brand of basketball Cal played to get the better of Stanford in Berkeley. The Golden Bears’ 52-50 victory is an example of how they’d like to slow things in this one.
And then there’s the Stanford defense, which is good to great across nearly every defensive metric. Here’s a sampling:
- Defensive Efficiency (1st in Pac-12, 9th nationally)
- Opp PPG (1st, 16th)
- App Three-Point% (1st, 19th)
- Effective Field Goal% (2nd, 20th)
- Opp TOs (2nd, 28th)
Stanford unders went 17-12-2 this season, and Cal games went under the closing number eight out of 14 times away from Berkeley.
I have a feeling this is going to be a stinker, from an offensive perspective.
Pick: Under 128.5
Colorado vs. Washington State
- Spread: Colorado -8
- Total: 138
- Time: 11:30 p.m. ET
- TV: Pac-12 Network
Heading into Las Vegas for the Pac-12 Tournament, Washington State has lost six of seven straight up. Colorado, has been in a similar tailspin, losing four in a row SU and five straight ATS. For most casual gamblers this is a hold your nose and take a shot situation.
But when you drill down deeper, there’s a gulf separating these two teams. For starters, while both teams struggle on the road against the spread (CU 4-7 / WSU 3-7-1), Colorado excels at neutral sites (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS). That includes a win over presumptive No. 1 seed Dayton in Chicago.
The main issue for Colorado during its recent skid has been its offense. In their past six games, in regulation, the Buffs have failed to hit their season scoring average which has plummeted from the mid-70s down to 71 ppg.
During the four-game losing streak, they’ve shot just 42% from the field and a putrid 23.9% from three-point range. The Buffs are certainly due for a positive regression from three-point range, but Wazzu may not be the team to help them out in that department.
The Cougs may struggle mightily on the offensive end, but they’ve been pretty stingy on defense, especially on the perimeter. Opponents only connect on 5.8 treys per game against Wazzu on just 32% shooting.
Expect Colorado to get it going a bit more offensively, but not enough to push this total over.
Pick: Under 138
