Baylor vs Texas Odds
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -106 | 147.5 -105o / -115u | +150 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -114 | 147.5 -105o / -115u | -182 |
Fresh off a double-digit loss at the hands of Tennessee, Texas returns to the Moody Center looking for a bounce back win against red-hot Baylor.
Scott Drew's squad has won six straight after losing the opening three games of Big 12 play. They most recently took down Arkansas in the Big 12/SEC Challenge, completing a second-half comeback in the 67-64 win.
The Moody Center will be rocking for what sets up to be the game of the night on Monday. Can Texas ride the home crowd to victory, or will Baylor continue its surge toward the top of the Big 12 standings? Find a pick and prediction for Baylor vs. Texas below.
Baylor Bears
The Baylor Bears extended their win streak to six games on Saturday, completing a comeback against Arkansas in a three-point win. The Bears struggled at times with Arkansas' defensive intensity, but they rode the storm, and foul trouble eventually led to Baylor's 40-point second half.
Baylor is often a three-headed monster on offense. Keyonte George is the star and main shot creator, taking 31.4 percent of shot attempts while on the floor. He, LJ Cryer and Adam Flagler are the engine of this offense. They took 32 of Baylor's 41 shots on Saturday against Arkansas.
Unlike Texas, Baylor doesn't push transition at a high rate. The Bears prefer to get into halfcourt sets by using the pick and roll to open shooting lanes. They also frequently allow one of their trio of guards to run isolation, though this hasn't come at an efficient pace (296th per ShotQuality).
Baylor's offense has the second-best Offensive Efficiency Rating (120.1), per Kenpom, and has a high free throw rate. Despite a lack of consistent size — Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua remains out — the Bears are a top-10 offensive rebounding team.
One of the keys of Baylor's comeback against Arkansas was Scott Drew switching to a zone for the majority of the second half. The Razorbacks were forced into uncomfortable shots and struggled with turnovers as opposed to the first half where they were the more physical and aggressive team.
Baylor's defense has had its issues throughout this season. The Bears are a below-average transition defense and rank 227th defending 2-point field goals. While they force turnovers at a near-top 50 rate, their defensive aggression leads to foul trouble.
Opponents also have no issue creating second-chance opportunities. We saw that issue arise Saturday when Arkansas missed a 1-and-1 free throw with a few seconds left. The Razorbacks ended up getting a wide open 3 for the tie and overtime, but it didn't fall.
If the Bears can limit transition opportunities and force the Longhorns into the halfcourt, there are few teams more dominant from a points per possession (PPP) perspective. They're 10th, per ShotQuality, and that has led to their ability to defend the midrange (ninth), in isolation (18th) and the pick-and-roll (28th).
Texas Longhorns
Texas looks to bounce back after struggling against Tennessee's defensive intensity. The Longhorns' interior defense melted, and the Vols shot 68.6% on 2-point field goals.
That's very uncharacteristic of Texas and a byproduct of just how well-rounded Tennessee is. Zakai Zeigler picked Texas apart, and there was no stopping Olivier Nkamhoua (27 points on 12-of-15 shooting).
I wouldn't panic with this veteran Texas team. The Longhorns have a run-and-gun offense that loves to attack the rim — and do so at the 13th-best rate, per ShotQuality. They rarely shoot from the perimeter, and they push transition at the fourth-highest rate in the country. Much of that stems from their defensive intensity and quick ability to convert turnovers into fastbreak opportunities.
Texas is 14th in 2-point offense as Tyrese Hunter is the only player in their nine-man lineup who shoots below 50% on 2s. This is a deep and athletic Longhorns squad that loves to apply pressure whenever possible.
Because of their athleticism, Texas often switches on defense without any issues. They remain the 33rd-best team on defending finishes at the rim and are the fourth-best transition defense from a PPP perspective, per ShotQuality. They're above-average in just about every metric aside from catch and shoot 3s and do have some foul trouble issues due to their intensity.
While Texas pushes the pace, their defense often forces opponents late into the shot clock. It's also important to note that the Horns are 12-1 at home; oftentimes their struggles happen away from the Moody Center.
Baylor vs. Texas Betting Pick
I would monitor the line as early money has poured in on Baylor. However, I have faith in interim head coach Rodney Terry and the Longhorns at the Moody Center.
We saw what happened when Baylor dealt with the defensive pressure from Arkansas, and Texas can replicate that formula. The difference is Texas' offense should find success and not break down on the offensive end.
The biggest edge lies in transition. Texas runs at the fourth-highest rate, draws a ton of fouls and attacks the rim with aggression. That's the soft spot of this Baylor defense, all the way down at 180th in PPP out of the halfcourt, per ShotQuality.
This Texas defense will combat the isolation offense from Baylor's three-headed monster and should limit the Bears down the stretch. It all comes down to Baylor's 3-point success — they shoot 44.4% of their shots from the perimeter — but Texas' defense is well-equipped there.
Baylor shoots off the dribble 3s at the 16th-highest rate, an area where Texas is 63rd in the country at defending.
Texas has only lost once at the Moody Center this year, and I expect that trend to continue on Monday night. I would watch the line and try to get Texas under -2 as the day progresses, but would back them to -3.
Pick: Texas -2.5 | Play to -3 |
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