Florida State vs. Virginia Odds
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19 -110 | 131 -110o / -110u | +1400 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19 -110 | 131 -110o / -110u | -5989 |
Florida State travels to Charlottesville to take on the No. 3-ranked Virginia Cavaliers to open ACC play.
Virginia will look to defend home court and keep its undefeated season alive against a Seminoles team that has only been on the winning end of one game this season.
Virginia and head coach Tony Bennett have been extremely effective this year given their elite level of returning production.
The Cavaliers rank fourth in the country in D-I experience (3.53 years on average) and have 73.1% of their minutes back from last year's team that finished with 21 wins.
Virginia starts three seniors and two juniors, all of which were on last year's roster.
On the other side, Florida State's continuity starts and ends with Leonard Hamilton, who is entering his 17th season as head coach of the Seminoles.
Unlike Virginia, Florida State ranks 231st in D-I experience (1.66 years on average) and has just 43.4% of its minutes back from a team that finished with 17 wins last season.
For Florida State to keep pace with one of the most talented teams in the country, it will need to find a level of continuity it has yet to achieve so far this season.
Florida State Seminoles
As is the question with most Virginia opponents: will the Seminoles find enough ways to score in order to keep up with the Cavs?
Through nine games, the Seminoles have only eclipsed 80 points once (a 81-72 win against Mercer), which does not bode well against a UVA defense that ranks 17th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
This low scoring is a result of an offense that ranks outside the top 230 in effective FG%, offensive rebound%, 3P% and 2P%.
Given these poor numbers, the Seminoles have relied heavy on the charity stripe to supplement their ineffective offense.
Florida State has scored 20.9% of its total points from the free-throw line this year, good for 77th nationally.
Unfortunately, Virginia has not been giving its opponents anything for free this season. The Cavaliers only allow their opponents to gain 12.4% of their total points from the free-throw line, one of the lowest rates in the country.
For a Florida State team still looking to break through offensively, this matchup with Virginia is far from ideal.
Virginia Cavaliers
There is nothing more dangerous than an experienced Tony Bennett team, and that is exactly what Virginia is this year.
The Cavaliers' top seven contributors in terms of percentage of possessions used are all either juniors or seniors.
Most notably, the Cavaliers are led by a senior trio of Jayden Gardner, Armaan Franklin and Kihei Clark.
Clark is the engine for this Cavaliers team, which was reflected in him being named to the Bob Cousy preseason watch list.
So far this season, Clark is averaging 9.5 points and 5.0 assists, with a team high 32.0 minutes per game.
SIX threes in the first half 🤯
Kihei Clark is a walking bucket
(via @UVAMensHoops)pic.twitter.com/9aPp1fkoUu
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) February 24, 2022
This senior leadership has resulted in Virginia having one of the most efficient offenses in the country.
The Cavaliers rank third in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (116.9) to go with a top-10 ranking in effective FG% (57.9%).
Led by Clark, Virginia has a 66.4% assist-to-field goals made ratio, which is seventh nationally. Bennett's methodical offensive style is being run to the best of its ability.
An important aspect to note is the slow pace of this Virginia offensive style. Virginia ranks 330th in the country in average offensive possession length, using 19.2 seconds on average.
Because of this slow style, this exceptionally efficient offense has only scored more than 70 points twice this season.
Virginia's game plan against Florida State will not deviate from its desire to slow things down on offense and completely shut down its opponent defensively.
Florida State vs. Virginia Betting Pick
Offensively for Florida State, this is a nightmare matchup with a Virginia defense that prides itself on making every basket difficult for its opponent.
Similarly, I believe Virginia may struggle somewhat in the early going offensively against an extremely lengthy Seminoles unit.
Florida State is the second tallest team in the country.
Given these factors, I predict a low-scoring affair in Charlottesville on Saturday afternoon.
Pick: Under 131 (Play to 129) |
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