Iowa vs. TCU Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 148 -109o / -110u | -278 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 148 -109o / -110u | +225 |
The Emerald Coast Classic final approaches on Saturday night between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the TCU Horned Frogs.
Head coach Jamie Dixon has rallied the Horned Frogs to the title despite dropping a game to Northwestern State on November 14.
Meanwhile, Iowa is undefeated going into this game, with notable wins over Clemson and Seton Hall.
These are polar opposite teams. Dixon emphasizes defensive prowess, while the Hawkeyes run one of the best offenses in the country.
Iowa can, at times, look a little shaky on the defensive end, especially against higher profile teams. But this should not be the case in this game, particularly in the first half.
The spread and overall total are nearly perfect, but TCU might take some time getting affiliated with the Iowa defense.
With that being the case, the Horned Frogs' team total under in the first half should be in play.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa ranks fourth in the NCAA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. It does so by rarely turning the ball over (second in the country) and distributing points from all areas of the floor.
The Hawkeyes do not shoot many 3s, but when they do, they are hitting at nearly a 37% clip.
They also have four players — Kris Murray, Patrick McCaffery, Tony Perkins and Filip Rebraca — averaging double figures in points.
They rank 60th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, so they could use some work in that regard. That said, the only area they are ailing is defending the 3-point line.
On the season, opponents are shooting almost 32% from deep. Luckily for them, the Horned Frogs are an atrocious 3-point shooting team. TCU ranks 352nd in college hoops at only 24.3% from 3-point range. This will play into Iowa’s hands, as it performs well most of the time in other defensive areas.
The Hawkeyes turn opponents over 21.2% of the time. Perkins is a usual suspect in this area, averaging 2.0 steals per game.
Tony Perkins steal ➡️ Tony Perkins slam
The @IowaHoops guard cashes in pic.twitter.com/SG16FokZq2
— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) December 4, 2021
Now, TCU does not turn it over often on the offensive end (16.7%), but this is another area to not overlook the Hawkeyes.
Lastly, the Hawkeyes defend inside the arc well. Opponents are only shooting 43% on 2s against them.
They have length on the wings and inside. Perkins is one of the smaller Hawkeyes at 6-foot-4. Ahron Ulis comes in at 6-foot-3. Otherwise, the major contributors for Iowa are at least 6-foot-6.
Considering TCU’s offense thrives in only one area, this could become an issue.
TCU Horned Frogs
Building off of that, the Horned Frogs do not get points from anywhere other than the free throw line or on close-up shots.
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Photo by CBB Analytics
See how cold the Horned Frogs have been from deep? Rondel Walker is the only player on the team who is shooting 35%+ while logging more than two 3-point attempts per game.
Emanuel Miller is shooting 37.5% from outside, but he does not launch many from out there.
This should not be of much concern for Iowa, which has allowed the opposition a ton of opportunities from beyond the arc.
TCU’s primary offense is getting the ball internally and possibly getting fouled. 55% of its points have come on 2-pointers, while 22.9% of its points have come from the strike.
The issue here is Iowa rarely fouls on defense (fourth in FTA/FGA). The Hawkeyes are also only permitting opponents to shoot 43% on shots inside the perimeter.
Iowa vs. TCU Betting Pick
All of these ingredients point to the Horned Frogs having a tough time making up ways to score in the first half.
Yes, Dixon is a good coach and will have his team primed after an animated halftime speech, but TCU’s offensive scheme does not pair well with how Iowa’s defense has fared in the early goings of the season.
Take TCU’s team total under 33.5 (-122), and play it to 32 (-120).
