Wake Forest vs. Wisconsin Odds
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -104 | 130.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -118 | 130.5 -110o / -110u | -255 |
The 2022 ACC/Big Ten Challenge will hit the ground running on Tuesday night with six total matchups, including Wake Forest traveling to Wisconsin.
The Wisconsin Badgers return home after their appearance in the Battle 4 Atlantis — in which they took on Dayton, Kansas and USC.
The Badgers finished third, defeating USC, 64-59, in the third-place game. Most notable was Wisconsin's matchup with eventual runner-up Kansas that came down to the final buzzer in overtime.
Wake Forest, on the other hand, has not played an opponent inside the top 100 so far this season.
The Demon Deacons' most impressive win came against 109th-ranked Georgia in which they came out on top, 81-71, behind 22 points from Tyree Appleby.
Will Wisconsin build upon the experience it gained in Atlantis? And how will Wake Forest fair against a significant jump in competition?
Let's dive in.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
To say this is a rebuilding season for third-year head coach Steve Forbes would be an understatement.
Wake Forest ranks 298th in minutes continuity from a season ago at just 23.3%.
The Demon Deacons' three main returnees from a season ago are Cameron Hildreth, Damari Monsanto and Daivien Williamson. Of these three returnees, only Williamson averaged more than 30% of the team's total minutes from a season ago.
The limited returning experienced is paired with two transfers in Appleby (Florida) and Andrew Carr (Delaware).
Appleby comes into this season looking to fill the roll left behind by Alondes Williams, who led Wake Forest in scoring a year ago. Appleby has looked up to the task through seven games, leading the team with 17.9 points per game.
TYREE APPLEBY WINS IT FOR WAKE!
What a play design here by Steve Forbes for the win.pic.twitter.com/dO5KKopmA2
— Heat Check CBB (@HeatCheckCBB) November 16, 2022
The storyline for this matchup with Wisconsin will be the significant jump in competition for the Demon Deacons. To this point in the season, Wake Forest's strength of schedule is an abysmal 340th nationally, according to KenPom's strength of schedule metrics.
Wake Forest must now travel to face a Wisconsin team that is ranked inside the top 25 in a number of key areas.
The Badgers rank 12th in overall defensive efficiency, 13th in effective FG% defense and sixth in 3P% defense. This will be the toughest matchup so far this season for Wake Forest.
Another potential disadvantage for Wake Forest is its overall health. Williamson and 7-foot-1 sophomore Matthew Marsh both missed the team's last matchup with Hampton.
Forbes’ update on Daivien Williamson and Matthew Marsh: “We hope that they can both go.”
The Deacs arrived in Wisconsin today for tomorrow’s ACC-Big Ten Challenge game.
— Josh Graham (@JoshGrahamRadio) November 28, 2022
This health uncertainty makes an already difficult matchup for Wake Forest all the more complicated.
Wisconsin Badgers
Unlike Wake Forest, Wisconsin has been battle tested early and often to start the 2022-23 season.
Four of Wisconsin's first six opponents have all been inside the top-65 nationally.
Although Wisconsin went an impressive 4-1 in these matchups, it did show a specific lack of explosiveness on the offensive end.
The Badgers rank outside the top-300 nationally in effective FG% (44.3%), offensive rebound% (23.5%) and 2P% (39.2%). All of these poor offensive numbers combine with an Adjusted Tempo that is 324th nationally to create a ton of low-scoring affairs for the Badgers.
Even with their 5-1 record, the Badgers have only managed to score more than 70 points once this season — in their opener against South Dakota.
This tendency for low-scoring contests is likely to continue on Tuesday night against a Wake Forest team that has shown some effectiveness on the defensive end.
Wake Forest ranks inside the top 100 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (97.3), effective FG% (46.0%) and 2P% (46.4%). Although these numbers have come against some low-level competition, Wisconsin has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency outside the top-100 nationally.
Look for Wisconsin to continue its trend of playing in low-scoring contests on Tuesday night.
Wake Forest vs. Wisconsin Betting Pick
Although Wisconsin is clearly the more talented and cohesive unit coming into Tuesday's matchup with Wake Forest, there is still much to be desired on the offensive end for the Badgers.
Additionally, Wisconsin has a dream of a defensive matchup against a Wake Forest team that has been battling injuries early on this season.
Even if Williamson and Marsh are able to suit up for the Demon Deacons, the drastic rise in competition will be shocking for Wake Forest, particularly in its first true road game.
At the time of writing, the total for this matchup sits at 129.5.
Although a low number, I still believe there is value on the under with a Wisconsin team that prides itself on the defensive end and is still in search of an identity on offense.
Pick: Under 129.5 (Play to 127) |
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