Ohio State vs. Purdue Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | -720 |
It's wild to think that back on January 5th Ohio State nearly pulled off the upset against this Purdue Boilermakers team in Columbus. The Buckeyes seemed like they were on the verge of becoming a sleeper to make a deep run in March, but everything has gone off the rails since.
Since January 21st, Chris Holtmann's squad has not won a basketball game. The Buckeyes are 11-15 and in jeopardy of having the program's worst season since 2003-04.
As for Purdue, it'll be looking to bounce back after consecutive tough losses at Northwestern and Maryland. I don't believe this Purdue team is as good as it's deemed on paper, but this seems like a great opportunity to kick things back into gear.
As much as I think Purdue is overrated I don't know how in the world Ohio State wins this game. But as a bettor, the only wins we care about are the ones ATS. I think we can attack this game in a couple of different ways, so let's break down these teams.
Ohio State Buckeyes
As bad as it's been over the past month, the underlying metrics suggest Ohio State is due for some positive regression.
According to Shot Quality, the Buckeyes have a +12.46 record-luck, which suggests they should have an additional 2-3 wins. This isn't all that surprising as Ohio State ranks 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom.
What the Buckeyes have going for them in this matchup is that they have the size and athleticism to hang with the Boilermakers. Ohio State's offensive philosophy is centered on its terrific forwards — Brice Sensabaugh, Zed Key and Justice Sueing.
Ohio State's ability to grab offensive rebounds will be key in this matchup as the Buckeyes are 49th in the country in earning second-chance opportunities. They will have to make Purdue pay when these opportunities come up, and this could also correlate into getting Zach Edey into foul trouble.
I think the Buckeyes can have some success on offense here, but can their defense hang on long enough to give them a shot at the end of the game?
Purdue Boilermakers
Edey, the presumed player of the year, has been nothing short of sensational for the Boilermakers. Without him, Matt Painter's squad may not even be sniffing a bid to the NIT Tournament. Edey's gaudy numbers are quite terrific, but I think Purdue is overrated.
First off, the Boilermakers possess a -12.80 record-luck per Shot Quality. This is even after losing their past two games, so the numbers suggest regression is still looming. All it will take for Purdue to crumble is for Edey to have an off-night and the Boilermakers will be greeted with an early March exit.
For this particular matchup, let's focus on some of the positives the Boilermakers bring to the table — they're 10th in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. The complimentary pieces of Mason Gillis and Fletcher Loyer allow Purdue to win in multiple ways.
Purdue also makes its free throws. They rank 41st in the country in FT%, so capitalizing at the charity stripe has clearly helped them in close contests. Considering Ohio State isn't a defensive powerhouse, I think Purdue will be able to bounce back and have some success on the offensive end of the floor.
Ohio State vs. Purdue Betting Pick
It's not really a surprise that this line opened at Purdue -12.5. Ohio State has looked lifeless during this losing streak and there are no signs indicating when the skid is going to end. This is definitely a good spot to back Purdue, but I am going to go a different route and take the over. I think Holtmann is tired of hearing about this losing streak, so we may even see an extra juiced effort from the Buckeyes.
I spoke about both team's ability to have success on offense, and despite Purdue being a true snail (323rd in adjusted tempo) I think both teams should put up points.
