Purdue vs Maryland Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 132.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 132.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
Maryland has revenge on its mind as it welcomes Purdue to College Park on Thursday night.
The Terps have won five of their last six since losing to the Boilermakers nearly a month ago.
Meanwhile, Purdue enters as losers of two of its last three.
Since its blowout loss to UCLA in mid-December, Maryland has dominated inside the XFINITY Center. The Terps are a sparkling 8-0 since.
There's not much to add about a 23-3 Purdue team that has dominated all season long. The Boilers have lost their last two road games, though.
Can Maryland avenge its Jan. 22 loss against Zach Edey and the Boilermakers, or will it struggle once again offensively against this Purdue team?
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue has finally begun to look mortal, with losses in two of its last three.
The offense revolves around 7-foot-4 Edey. He's arguably the most dominant weapon in the entire country.
That's mostly because of his size, but he's also one of the more well-polished post players in college basketball. He's not awkward with the ball in his hands and has great touch around the rim.
Edey's physicality and size is nearly impossible to stop. He's the No. 1 offensive rebounder in the country, draws fouls at a top-20 rate and shoots 62.8% from the field.
Opponents are forced to double team when he receives the ball in the paint, which opens opportunities for the Boilermakers from 3.
As expected, nearly 15% of Purdue's shots come out of the post and an additional 40% come from the perimeter. Purdue's biggest issue is a lack of consistency from 3.
Braden Smith has provided a huge boost (41.9%), but Fletcher Loyer — who has taken nearly double the amount of 3s then the other Boilermaker guards — is connecting at just a 34.2% clip.
Matt Painter often pairs Edey with Caleb Furst, a 6-foot-10 big who's also extremely efficient on the glass. The duo can cause a lot of problems for smaller teams that struggle with defensive rebounding.
Purdue's offense plays at a snail's pace. The Boilermakers prefer to slow down the tempo and let Edey get set up out of the post before running their offense.
The Boilermakers don't force turnovers — 334th in country — so transition offense is rare.
Defensively, despite Edey's presence, the Boilermakers actually allow the fifth-most shots at the rim, per ShotQuality. They are efficient at defending those attacks — inside the top 30 — and clean up the defensive glass with no issues.
Pushing transition and forcing turnovers is key to beating this Purdue defense. The Boilermakers are not as efficient without Edey manning the paint, and Painter's defense works best out of the half-court.
The Boilermakers are 23rd in defending the perimeter, though they are 231st on catch-and-shoot 3s, per ShotQuality's PPP metric.
Maryland Terrapins
It's been a tale of three parts for Maryland in year one of the Kevin Willard era. After starting off the season a blistering 8-0 with consistent blowout wins, the Terps lost seven of their next 11.
That last loss was Purdue on Jan. 22 and since then, Maryland is 5-1. The Terps picked up a double-digit win against Indiana, and avenging their loss against the Boilermakers would likely be the final push to secure an NCAA tournament berth.
The Terrapins are one of the most intriguing rosters to break down in the Big Ten. Transition offense is preferred, and Maryland finds its most success through the pick-and-roll.
Charlotte transfer Jahmir Young has become the focal point of this offense and is used on over 30% of possessions. He leads the team in scoring, assists and steals and is the primary ball handler.
His presence takes a lot of pressure off senior Donta Scott, who takes over a quarter of the shots while on the floor. These are the only two players in Willard's rotation that take above 20% of shots.
But the biggest boost to this offense — and primarily why Maryland attacks through the PnR — is big man Julian Reese. The sophomore ranks 30th in eFG% and is a dominant force both around the rim and on the glass.
The Terps rank inside the top 50 in both 2-point offense and defense. They are a tall and athletic team that prefers to strike in transition and lacks any consistent 3-point threat.
Don Carey has seen his 3-point% drop by nine points since transferring from Georgetown, and Hakim Hart has struggled to find his groove, too.
No starter on this Terps roster shoots above 30%.
Like Purdue, Maryland's defense forces opponents to slow down. The Terps struggle in transition, but are 55th out of the half-court, per ShotQuality. Their length and defensive pressure often funnels the opposition inside, where their length often proves disruptive.
Last time Maryland played Purdue, the Terps forced a lot of contested shots, and the Boilermakers struggled aside from Edey. Take out his success and Purdue shot just 8-of-22 from the field.
Willard is a defensive-minded head coach, and that has translated to College Park in his first season at the helm. The Terps are 34th in eFG% and have been a suffocating defense.
Only four times in Big Ten play has an opponent scored 65+ points.
Purdue vs Maryland Betting Pick
There's no stopping Edey, that much is known.
But Maryland was able to limit the damage, force turnovers and put Purdue on upset watch on the road the last time these two teams faced.
I trust the veteran experience of Maryland here, as it avenges an earlier loss to Purdue. The Terps return home to a packed XFINITY Center against a Boilermakers squad that's finally falling down to earth.
Maryland should once again force Purdue's guards into tough shots on the perimeter, and I'd expect a way better offensive performance this time around.
Reese's athleticism and quickness was a problem — at times — for Edey, and the Terps were able to force five turnovers from the 7-foot-4 big.
For what it's worth, Maryland was 3-for-21 from 3 in the three-point loss. It forced 15 turnovers and clawed back after falling down by a large margin.
Expect a similar double team plan once Edey hits the post and for Maryland's length to disturb the Purdue perimeter game.
There's no stopping Edey on offense, but Maryland should replicate the same formula from its first matchup with Purdue on Thursday night, and I'd expect a different result this time around.
Pick: Maryland +2 (Play to PK) |
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