After five months of non-stop college basketball, we've finally reached the National Championship game.
And to celebrate the final game of the season, Mike Calabrese and Tanner McGrath — who have worked together to create a weekly piece called the "Pick & Roll" — will each be making a selection for the national title.
So, here's this special edition of the Pick & Roll, which will provide college basketball odds and predictions for Purdue vs. UConn.
Purdue vs. UConn
UConn Margin of Victory 1-5 Points (+340)
The Huskies’ run is, for all intents and purposes, unprecedented. During this dominant two-year stretch, they’ve defeated every single opponent they’ve faced in the NCAA Tournament by double digits.
Against Illinois, they put together the first 30-0 run in a Division I game in three and a half years. They’ve embarrassed teams and have done it all without the benefit of elite 3-point shooting.
According to our Evan Abrams, UConn is 32-1 straight up and 28-5 ATS in the last two years when facing non-conference opponents. And Dan Hurley’s team just became the first in the seeding era (1979-) to win and cover in 10 and subsequently 11 games in a row.
Looking back on the Final Four, Alabama played as well offensively as a team can play against UConn in the first 20 minutes. The Crimson Tide shot 8-for-11 from 3-point range and 57% from the field in the first half.
But that wasn’t good enough to crack the Huskies. They still trailed by four at the break before wilting down the stretch.
That’s not how basketball or math, for that matter, is supposed to work. If you shoot 72% from long range in the first half of a game, you should be beating your opponent soundly.
Yet here we are, heading into a Monday night coronation for the most dominant basketball team since (clutches pearls) 1990 UNLV. That Runnin’ Rebel team — led by Larry Johnson, Stacey Augmon and Anderson Hunt — demolished Duke in the national title game by 30 points.
We’re headed for a similar result, right?
Well, allow me to play devil’s advocate for a moment. Last year’s results, while fun to talk about and useful when comparing the 2024 UConn team to mini dynasties like ‘06-’07 Florida, have no bearing on this game.
I’m only truly interested in the past six weeks of basketball. UConn is currently on a 12-game winning streak, dating back to February 24. But can we call any of the teams they beat truly elite?
During this run, the Huskies knocked off Marquette on the road by seven, then took them to the woodshed in the Big East Tournament final (73-57). Both of those wins came with Tyler Kolek sidelined due to injury.
The Golden Eagles were a shell of themselves without their second-team All-American on the floor.
Then UConn dominated another short-handed team in Northwestern in the Round of 32, winning by 17 before boat-racing San Diego State and Illinois en route to the Final Four. This all led to the Huskies calmly dispatching Alabama in the national semifinal.
Illinois and Alabama left a lot to be desired on the defensive end and San Diego State was completely outgunned offensively. But blowouts are blowouts and fans, analysts and the betting community have been equally impressed by UConn’s historic level of play.
Is it possible, though, that Purdue will present the Huskies with their first true challenge in tournament play?
In a normal year, Purdue would enter Monday night’s title game as a favorite. The Boilermakers’ adjusted efficiency margin is +31.31, according to KenPom. That’s noticeably higher than UConn’s last season (+29.86).
If we dig through the KenPom database, their AdjEM is higher than 13 of the last 27 national champions.
Zach Edey, a two-time AP Player of the Year, is Evan Miya’s highest-rated player since 2011. And Donovan Clingan, who's now receiving top-five NBA draft buzz, hasn’t played his best basketball when facing elite bigs.
In a sample size of five games against Indiana’s Kel’el Ware, Kansas’ Hunter Dickinson, UNC’s Armando Bacot and a pair of games against Ryan Kalkbrenner, Cling Kong averaged a modest 8.2 points and 5.6 rebounds per game.
If he’s not playing like a lottery pick, UConn could prove to be mortal. At least that’s theory.
At the window, Purdue has also been a covering machine this season against nationally-ranked opponents, posting an 8-1-1 mark (88.9%). That’s the best ATS winning percentage for any team that faced at least 10 ranked opponents in the past 15 years.
Yet, here the Boilers are, sizable underdogs, largely being given no shot to win this game by the public. As of writing, 70% of all moneyline bets are on UConn.
So, on the one hand, we have a team dismantling tournament competition at an unprecedented rate. And on the other, we have an underdog that's covering spreads against quality opponents at the highest clip in nearly two decades.
From a KenPom rating perspective, this is the second-best title game matchup since 2002. The two teams combine for an AdjEM of +66.96, falling short of only Baylor-Gonzaga in 2021 (+70.35).
So, instead of choosing one side to win out in this battle, why don’t we split things down the middle?
If you select UConn’s margin of victory to fall between one and five points, you’ll be staring at a payout approaching 7:2. That feels too generous to me given Purdue’s quality and the likelihood of a tight game, according to my power rankings.
Pick: UConn Margin of Victory 1-5 Points (+340)
Purdue +6.5
I’m sorry, but I just don’t understand.
Purdue is 34-4 SU, 3-0 ATS as an underdog and 5-0 ATS in this NCAA Tournament. The Boilermakers boast an adjusted efficiency margin of over +31, with the nation’s third-best offense and 12th-best defense.
Their leader is the two-time National Player of the Year, the first to win the award twice since 1983.
How are these guys catching over six against anyone?
Yes, obviously, UConn is the nation’s best team and among the best college basketball teams of all time.
But Purdue is the nation’s second-best team. And if the Boilermakers weren’t in Hurley’s monstrous shadow, I bet we’d be talking about Edey and Co. in a similar light.
These guys are terrific, and nobody outside the betting market believes they’re more than six points worse than any other college basketball team, including UConn.
KenPom projects the Huskies as three-point favorites, while Bart Torvik and Haslametrics make the spread around 2.5. Our own Action App PRO model makes UConn a 3.5-point favorite. ShotQualityBets is the high man in the model market, projecting the spread a shade over four points.
Purdue +6.5 feels out of control.
I understand that the Huskies are dominating games in unprecedented ways. They’ve won and covered 11 straight NCAA Tournament games. Alabama shot 11-for-23 (48%) from deep and lost by 15 in the national semifinal.
I also understand that the books would take so much Husky money if they set the line closer to UConn -3.5.
But it doesn’t mean I can’t take the other side.
And I actually think Purdue can hang around in this game.
Clingan is among the nation’s best post-up defenders (.30 PPP allowed, 22nd nationally). Still, Edey has been destroying low-block defenders at historic volume for two straight seasons, and nobody is ever quite ready for his relentless attack upon the rim.
By constantly posting and re-posting, Edey grinds opposing frontcourts down, running a nationwide-high 18 post-up sets per game and scoring over 1.00 PPP. The Boilers have run 21 post-up sets per game during this five-game tournament run.
Meanwhile, Clingan and UConn haven’t defended more than 14 post-up sets in any game this year.
Sure, Cling Kong is a monster, and his rim defense has been historically good during this tournament run. But I remain unconvinced that even he can stop Edey.
But if he does, Purdue’s offense still has a shot here.
Last year’s version of this team was hyper-dependent on the “Edey and Edeyettes” model, which was scoring with Zach in the post or drawing defenders toward the interior to open up perimeter shooters.
That team would’ve run into UConn’s dominant drop-coverage defense and likely folded, given the Huskies are excellent at defending the rim and the 3-point line.
But this year’s Boilermakers are much more comfortable in the pick-and-roll, with Braden Smith developing into a stud high ball-screen creator.
The way you beat UConn’s drop-coverage is by peddling in the mid-range, which is where the drop is most vulnerable – the Huskies rank around the 30th percentile of D-I teams in mid-range PPP allowed.
Meanwhile, Smith is great in that low mid-range area, generating 1.03 PPP, which ranks in the 87th percentile of D-I players. That’s mainly because he’s been so good out of those high ball-screen sets, working his way into the middle of the floor and pulling up.
In another game-script, Clingan can’t handle Edey’s relentless posting and re-posting, and UConn’s big man gets in foul trouble. That’s when back-up Samson Johnson comes on, and UConn will start hedging Smith’s ball-screens.
Smith has been awesome attacking hedges, and he should find numbers advantages on the perimeter against UConn’s rotations, hence giving the nation’s second-best 3-point shooting team (41%) open shots.
I have zero idea how Purdue stops the Huskies’ offense. UConn’s elite pattern motion offense is predicated on secondary off-ball screening actions, and Purdue is awful at defending those actions because Edey’s mobility is so limited.
I don’t think Purdue can drop Edey or play it’s more recent hard-hedge, no-middle scheme – the Huskies can beat any defense you throw at them.
However, Purdue can score here, and the Boilermakers have enough firepower to hang within a wildly inflated spread for 40 minutes.
UConn is astounding. But Purdue is damn good, too, and over six points is crazy.
Pick: Purdue +6.5
