Villanova vs Providence Odds
| Villanova Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 137.5 -110o / -110u | +146 |
| Providence Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 137.5 -110o / -110u | -176 |
Villanova played a true coin-flip game against Providence in Justin Moore's first game back from injury two weeks ago.
The Wildcats lost that game in the final minutes, and they will look for revenge in the rematch in Providence on Saturday. The Wildcats seem to have turned a corner thanks to the return of their star guard.
The Friars responded to a defeat against St. John's to take out Creighton in a dramatic, double-overtime victory on Tuesday night.
It required consecutive half-court stops on defense at the end of regulation and overtime to pull within a game of the top spot in the Big East standings.
Providence and Ed Cooley have excelled in close games and late-game execution for the last two seasons, but now the Friars are a solid home favorite against an improving Villanova squad that profiles well as an underdog.
Villanova Wildcats
Depending on which number you bet in the Villanova-Seton Hall game last Saturday, the Wildcats have covered either three of four or all four of their games in the last two weeks.
Villanova hasn't even gotten a strong performance from Moore yet, but his additional rebounding and ball handling has helped the Cats, even if he has been inefficient as a scorer.
Moore scored 15 points against Butler this week, but did so on just 3-of-11 shooting. He scored just two against Seton Hall as well, but still added in seven rebounds and a couple of assists.
He has played 30+ minutes in all six games, and you can just feel that the breakout game is coming for him.
His excellent defensive rebounding rate and solid assist rates have returned, but his shooting efficiency hasn't. He has made just 26% from 3 and 38% from 2, both well below his established career averages.
The fact Villanova is playing better and covering spreads with him being inefficient suggests there's even more room for the Wildcats to grow. His added rebounding is a major key in this matchup against Providence, too.
Given the overall quality of its shooters, it's also quite a surprise to see Villanova this low in 3-point shooting in league play. The Wildcats have made just 32% from deep in the league and project as closer to a 35% shooting team.
Providence Friars
The Friars are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the entire country, and they also get to the free-throw line at an extremely high rate.
Their physical brand of basketball is able to cause issues for some teams, but Villanova isn't really one of them.
The Wildcats don't foul much defensively and they crash the defensive glass pretty hard. Villanova is top-65 nationally in defensive rebounding rate and foul rate.
In the first meeting in Philadelphia, Providence had just six offensive rebounds. That was its fourth-worst offensive rebounding showing of the season.
The Friars won that game on some ridiculous shooting splits from their bench. Jared Bynum shot 7-of-8 from the field and the bench as a whole made 12 of their 15 shot attempts.
The Friars have a solid perimeter defense, but there is some defensive shooting regression looming for them, too. Opponents have shot just 27% from beyond the arc against them in the Big East, which is 3.3% better than every other defense in the conference.
Providence is good, but no one is that good from 3 defensively. There's an inflated perception of this defense based off those numbers, and Villanova shoots 3s at one of the highest rates in the country.
Villanova vs. Providence Betting Pick
Providence is in a neutral letdown spot after playing 10 extra minutes at home and surviving that physical battle with Creighton.
The Friars have been excellent under Cooley at prevailing in tight games, but asking them to win with margin against an improving and consistently undervalued Villanova team is difficult.
It's unlikely that Providence will overlook Villanova given the Wildcats' pedigree, but the Friars do have a marquee matchup with rival Connecticut in Storrs looming on Wednesday.
Villanova should slow this game down, keep Providence in the half-court and hold the Friars to just one shot on most trips down the floor.
The Friars have some perimeter defensive regression coming too, and Villanova might just be the team to exploit that with its volume.
