Colorado State vs. Air Force Odds
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 131 -105o / -115u | -611 |
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 131 -105o / -115u | +440 |
The Colorado State Rams will make the 133-mile trip south to take on the Air Force Falcons for the second time this season.
In the first meeting, the Rams hosted the Falcons and came away with a 67-59 win. That was their 11th win in a row and their last as an undefeated team before falling to San Diego State on the road in their next game.
While Air Force covered (+21) in the first game between the two, it's worth noting that Colorado State was coming off of a 24-day layoff.
The Falcons are currently 8-7 on the season after heading to Idaho to take on Boise State in their last game. This Air Force team is 1-3 in the Mountain West after having some conference games postponed due to COVID-19 issues.
Meanwhile, Colorado State is 13-1 overall and 5-1 on the road. If the Rams stick with the momentum they’ve had all season, they shouldn’t have a problem handling this matchup.
The Falcons will have to come out of the gates fast if they want a chance against the top-30 CSU offense. However, the Rams will have to watch out for freshman Ethan Taylor, who hung 19 points on the Rams in their first meeting, along with senior guard A.J. Walker, who is also part of the 1,000-career point club.
Colorado State Rams
The Colorado State offense should have the upper hand on the Air Force defense in this matchup.
Colorado State is currently 19th in effective field goal percentage. The Rams also rank 26th in the country in scoring offense at 78.4 points per game.
Colorado State is one of the best squads in the country when it comes to shooting, as it ranks 10th in overall shooting percentage at 49.4%.
David Roddy and Isaiah Stevens have made their mark in the Colorado State history books this season. Both entered the elite club of having over 1,000 career points. They lead the Rams in scoring this season, with Roddy averaging 19 points per game and Stevens contributing 14.9 per contest.
The Rams should have a considerable edge on the offensive end of the court when it comes to rebounding. They are an average rebounding team, pulling down 33.5 per game.
When it comes to converting second-chance opportunities, the Rams aren't one of the best at 202nd nationally. However, Air Force ranks 316th in defensive second-chance conversion percentage.
The Rams should also see plenty of chances at the free-throw line. Ranking 47th in the country in free-throw attempt rate, they can do some damage there. They hit free throws at an 81.0% clip, which is fourth in Division I.
The Colorado State defense should be able to cause some serious issues for the Air Force offense, as well. The Colorado State defense ranks 114th in adjusted defensive efficiency and has been able to limit teams to just 66.7 points per contest.
But the biggest problem for the Falcons will be maintaining possession, as the Rams rank 108th in block percentage and 152nd in steal percentage.
Air Force Falcons
The Falcons' offense has had some serious struggles this season, as the unit is currently ranked 301st in adjusted offensive efficiency. They are also one of the worst teams when it comes to points per game, racking up just 59.9 points per contest.
But what's weird about the Falcons is that they post solid shooting percentages — 36% from 3 and 53.4% on 2-point shots. They rank 83rd in overall shooting percentage, too.
So, what's the problem? Turnovers.
The Falcons rank 321st in turnovers per game, giving up 14.9 per contest. And because of that, they take less shots than every other team in Division I.
The Falcons rank 358th in field goal attempts per game at 48.1. Playing at one of the slowest paces in college ball doesn't do them any favors, either.
Air Force won't get to the free-throw line much, as it is ranked 339th in free-throw attempt rate, But that may be a blessing in disguise, as the Falcons are one of the worst teams from the charity stripe in the country. They hit free throws at just a 65.2% rate.
Colorado State vs. Air Force Betting Pick
Colorado State is a better team in nearly every measurable and important stat. But can it win on the road, and more importantly can it cover the spread?
Colorado State won by just eight when it hosted the Falcons, but I believe that was due in large part to the fact that the Rams were only in their second game coming off of a 24-day layoff.
I feel confident in the Rams at -10.5, and I would take them as high as 12-point favorite.
