Colorado State vs. Nevada Odds
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
Nevada will look to end a five-game losing streak when it hosts Colorado State on Tuesday night, but that may be easier said than done. It will be the second meeting of the season between these two teams; the Rams took down the Pack at home on January 25th.
The Rams did cover the spread of -8.5 in the first meeting, and its important to note they did it without starter Adam Thistlewood and third-leading scorer John Tonje due to injuries. Thistlewood and Tonje are both back and healthy, but will Nevada be able to defend homecourt?
Colorado State comes into this game after winning a close one against San Diego State, which had beaten the Rams by 30 earlier this season.
Nevada leads the all time series 12-7, including 8-2 at home. The Wolfpack have not lost to Colorado State in Reno dating back to 2015. Are the Rams good enough to finally get the win on the road this year?
Rams Have Efficient Offense
David Roddy leads the Rams in scoring at 18.8 points per game, which is also fourth in the Mountain West. Roddy also leads the team in both rebounds and blocks with 7.8 and 1.1 per game, respectfully. He is one of three Rams who average double figures in points, the other two being Isaiah Stevens with 15.7 per game, and Tonje at 10.5.
As a team, the Rams are the 24th-most efficient offensive team in college basketball. They are averaging 76.7 points per game and are shooting 48.9% from the floor, which ranks ninth in college basketball. They should have success specifically when it comes to 3-point shooting; the Rams rank 25th in percentage at 37.4% from outside the arc. Nevada, meanwhile, is allowing teams to hit at 35.8% from deep, ranking 284th.
Colorado State moves at an average pace, but Nevada plays an up-tempo game, specifically on offense. If they aren't hitting shots, the Rams will look to control time of possession and take over the game.
Defensively, the Rams are an average team, but in the Mountain West with some of the best defensive teams in the country they rank just seventh in scoring defense, limiting teams to 67.2 points per game. They are second in the conference in scoring margin at +10.1.
Nevada isn't a great offensive team, but can find success if it increases attempts and focuses on 2-point shooting. Colorado State is 185th in college basketball in defensive 2-point percentage, as well as 329th in opposing team 3-point attempts and 177th in field goal attempts.
Wolf Pack's Offense Is Slumping
The Wolfpack have struggled recently as the offense has regressed from average to mediocre. Over their last three games they are averaging just 59 points per game, while their shooting percentage has dropped from 43.1% down to 40.1%.
Nevada does have a productive core on the offensive end, led by Grant Sherfield, who is averaging 18.3 points per game. While two others in Desmond Cambridge & Will Baker both average double-digit scoring, Sherfield has been the driving force of the offense. He is also the second-best free throw shooter in the Mountain West.
Even through the recent struggles, the Nevada defense has stayed consistent and even improved in some facets. The Wolfpack had been allowing 75.3 points per game, but over the last three games they've held opposing teams to just 69 per contest. They have also improved their rim defense during the slump, going from 3.7 blocks per game up to 4.7.
I don't think even these recent improvements will be enough to slow down the Rams. Nevada is allowing teams to shoot 44.3% from the floor and 35.8% from beyond the arc. The Wolfpack have been able to draw fouls better than most teams, ranked 63rd at 18.3 fouls per game.
Colorado State vs. Nevada Betting Pick
Colorado State had no problem covering an 8.5-point spread against Nevada without two of its key players. The Rams may be on the road now and Nevada is desperate for a win, but I don't think that's enough to get the job done here.
I was able to get the Rams at -5.5, but would feel comfortable backing them here as high a 7.5 point favorite.
