Dayton vs. Saint Louis Odds
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 132.5 -110o / -110u | +146 |
| Saint Louis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 132.5 -110o / -110u | -178 |
Dayton will have its second straight road game as it takes on St. Bonaventure for the second time this season. In their first meeting, the Flyers beat St. Louis 68-63. Dayton currently sits at second in the conference with a 7-2 record, but the Billikens aren't far behind, currently 6-2 and in third place in the Atlantic 10.
In its last game, St. Louis needed a buzzer beater in double overtime to get past Georgie Mason. For the Billikens it was their fourth-straight victory and second-straight A-10 road win. The Bills also snapped George Mason's four-game winning streak. Yuri Collins led the team with a career-high 35 points, five rebounds, 13 assist and five steals.
The Flyers, meanwhile, are riding a three-game win streak, their most recent win being an 82-52 blowout against VCU. It was the biggest loss for the Rams dating back to 2003.
Dayton has won the last five matchups against St. Louis and has dominated the series overall with all-time record of 24-12 against the Billikens. Can they continue the win streak on the road this weekend?
Dayton Flyers
Dayton ranks 10th in the Atlantic 10, averaging 68.8 points per game, and while it is an impressive second in the conference when it comes to scoring margin, it won't mean much in this contest. St Louis is first in the league, posting an average margin of 12.1 compared to Dayton's 9.9.
Daron Holmes II will mean a considerable amount in this contest, however. Holmes currently leads the conference in shooting percentage, hitting 65.9% of his shots, while also ranking third in all of Division I. Homes is averaging 12.1 points per contest and also leads the team in blocks with 2.6 per game. Malaki Smith has been equally, if not more important to the Flyers output, currently scoring 10.8 points per game while leading the team in assist at 4.8.
The Flyers will need to prevent turnovers if they want to continue their streak over the Billikens. Dayton is turning the ball over an average of 13.9 times per game, which ranks 264th in the country. And against a St. Louis team that is forcing 14.1 per contest, it could have even more issues.
The Flyers defense is one of the best in the country, ranked 12th in scoring defense. They limit opposing teams to just 60.3 points per game. However, that's not a number I expect them to hold the 28th-ranked scoring offense of the Billikens to. Dayton's defense will need to a control the paint if it wants to beat St. Louis.
This is something I think they are more than capable of; the Flyers have a decent lead over the Billikens when it comes to size, currently ranked 58th in average height. They also rank 19th nationally in opponents offensive rebound percentage. Dayton is 49th in two-point shooting defense, an area in which St. Louis relies on 53.4% of its points.
Saint Louis Billikens
In their first game against Dayton, the Billikens had foul trouble, racking up 20 total fouls. They also struggled with ball security, registering 15 turnovers. Both are areas that cost them the game as they had a solid shooting performance. They will need to improve on both at home on Saturday if they want a chance.
On offense St. Louis is posting 80 points per game, a number that leads the Atlantic 10. It has been specifically deadly from three-point range, currently ranked 100th nationally hitting at 34.9% from outside the arc.
The Billikens have one of the best offenses in the country, but their defense is what truly sets them apart. Being able to produce on both ends of the floor is what has them knocking on the door for second in the conference.
St. Louis limits opposing teams to just 68.6 points per game, and while the Flyers aren't an offensive powerhouse, I think the Billikens will seriously threaten their ability around the basket. St. Louis is holding teams to just 46.9% on two-point shots, a location where Dayton relies on 54.7% of their scoring.
Dayton has also had series issues with turnovers, ranking 320th per Kenpom in turnover percentage. The Billikens are 119th in forcing a turnover on 19.7% of possessions, and if they can disrupt the flow of the Dayton offense they can win this game.
Dayton vs. Saint Louis Betting Pick
Saint Louis has been great at home ATS, currently 9-5 on the season. But Dayton has been better on the road at 6-3 ATS, topped off by and impressive 6-2 ATS record as an underdog.
However, I think the Billikens defense steps up at home. Between that and their massive advantage when it comes to free throw shooting, hitting at 77.2%, I think St. Louis gets it done here.
Back the Billikens to split the series as high as a 4.5-point favorite.
Pick: St. Louis -4.5 or better
