Duke vs. Xavier Odds
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -106 | 148.5 -114o / -106u | -192 |
| Xavier Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -114 | 148.5 -114o / -106u | +158 |
The Duke Blue Devils and Xavier Musketeers meet on Friday afternoon in a semifinal matchup of the Phil Knight Legacy Tournament.
Duke is coming off of a 54-51 victory in a grudge match against Oregon State. The Blue Devils were able to find their fifth win of the season behind a 19-point, 14-rebound double-double from seven-foot freshman Kyle Filipowski.
Xavier's quarterfinal matchup was more high-scoring, as the Musketeers defeated Florida, 90-83. Colby Jones led all scorers with 22. The Musketeers had five different players finish in double figures.
What was most impressive was Xavier's ability to hold Florida star Colin Castleton to just 11 points. This underwhelming performance was a result of an experienced Xavier frontcourt comprised of the senior duo of Jack Nunge and Zach Freemantle.
Will Xavier's fast-paced offense be able to outlast a methodical Duke defense? Will Filipowski be able to overcome Xavier's experienced frontcourt?
Let's dive in.
Duke Blue Devils
Jon Scheyer's first year trying to fill the shoes of Hall of Fame coach Mike Krzyzewski has gotten off to a rather predictable start.
The Blue Devils' only loss so far this season came against Kansas, 69-64, in the Champions Classic.
The most notable storyline for the Blue Devils has been the emergence of Filipowski. The seven-foot, five-star prospect is averaging 19 points and 10.4 rebounds per contest.
One of the many instances of Kyle Filipowski saving Duke in this game. pic.twitter.com/5soTghpFzG
— BlueDevilStop (@BlueDevilStop) November 24, 2022
What has been so impressive about Filipowski's game has been his ability to stretch the floor from the center position. Through six games, Filipowski has made nine 3s, including a 3-of-5 performance against Bellarmine.
Filipowski is also at the heart of the Blue Devils being ranked second in the country in offensive rebounding percentage (46.5).
These extra possessions — combined with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency that ranks 27th in the nation (91.7) — make Duke a tough matchup for any opponent.
In addition to the play of Filipowski, the 3P% for the Blue Devils will be a significant storyline in this matchup.
So far this season, Duke ranks 261st in 3P% (30.2), which can only improve as the season progresses.
If Duke is able to couple Filipowski's stellar play with effective outside shooting, its offense will be able to outpace most opponents.
Xavier Musketeers
Sean Miller enters his first year as Xavier's head coach with an experienced group.
The Musketeers rank 23rd nationally in D-I experience at 2.91 years on average.
This experience is invaluable against opponents such as Duke that are still looking to find continuity with a group that averages just 1.55 years of experience.
So far this season, Xavier has used this experience to develop one of the most efficient offenses in the country. The Musketeers rank 18th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (113.0), but most importantly, they are sixth in effective FG% (59.4).
The Xavier offense has been led by UTEP transfer Souley Boum.
Boum has been an exceptional floor general for the Musketeers, which is reflected in his 131.2 offensive rating — good for 110th amongst all D-I players.
This type of efficient play from Boum will be crucial against Duke's experienced junior point guard Jeremy Roach.
Look for Boum to match experience on experience in an effort to make life difficult for the Duke facilitator.
What this matchup comes down to for the Musketeers is their ability to stop Filipowski. The Duke center has been the MVP for the Blue Devils in their last three outings.
Xavier is coming off of a similar matchup with Florida's Castleton.
The seven-foot Florida big man was averaging over 25 points per game coming into Thursday's matchup with Xavier. The Musketeers were able to hold Castleton to just 11 point due to the experience of Freemantle and Nunge in the post.
Not only was this senior duo effective on defense, but they were also able to add 30 total points between the two of them.
Look for these two to have a similar level of success against an inexperienced, but talented Filipowski.
Duke vs. Xavier Betting Pick
This semifinal matchup is a matchup of talent vs. experience.
Although Duke has plenty of talent, Scheyer is still looking to figure out his lineups and what roles fit such players — like freshman Dereck Lively II.
Xavier, on the other hand, has its own identity locked down.
The Musketeers will use their experience and talented frontcourt to neutralize Duke's all-important offensive weapon in Filipowski.
Without an effective Filipowski, Duke will have trouble keeping up with an Xavier offense that ranks 23rd in pace (15.2) and fourth in 3P% (45.7%).
Pick: Xavier +3 or better ⋅ Play to +1 |
